Phase two shift: Israel and Hamas plan to extend truce deal
Israel and the Hamas group have completed the first stage of the truce deal. Tel Aviv has received the bodies of four hostages who died during the attack on October 7, 2023. In response, the Israeli authorities, as promised, released 600 Palestinian prisoners. Tel Aviv refused to fulfill one of the key conditions — to withdraw troops from the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of the Gaza Strip and Egypt. What are the prospects for the second stage of the agreement — in the material of Izvestia.
Not fulfilling the conditions
"The 42-day truce between Israel and Hamas is scheduled to end on Saturday, March 1, but the agreement stipulates that the cease-fire will continue as long as the parties continue negotiations on the next stage", — reports Axios edition.
Earlier, Hamas handed over the bodies of four Israelis to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Gaza. At the same time, 600 Palestinian prisoners were released. Of these, 60 have served long sentences for terrorism, and 50 have been imprisoned for life. About 50 more were re-arrested after their release in 2011.
Hamas said it had synchronized these processes so that Israel "would not be able to evade the agreement." The militants also expressed their willingness to discuss the second stage of the deal, which is scheduled to begin on March 1.
The exact number of living hostages remaining with Hamas is unknown. The group emphasizes that the only way to bring everyone back is to continue negotiations and comply with the agreements. However, Tel Aviv does not intend to fulfill all the conditions.
Senior sources report that the Israeli authorities are refusing to withdraw troops from the Philadelphia Corridor, fearing that Hamas will once again use the area to smuggle weapons from Egypt.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the militants have already href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-prepare-israel-fight-ceasefire-expiration-1d6575d9?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink " target="_blank">began rebuilding underground tunnels and rebuilding the command structure to strengthen their positions.
Extend the first phase
According to Axios sources, Israel wants to extend the first phase of the deal for another 42 days to free more hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas, in turn, declares its readiness to discuss interim options, but insists on fulfilling all conditions, including the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Neighboring countries, including Turkey, have expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may resume hostilities after the return of all hostages. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called on the international community, including the United States, Russia, the EU and China, to put pressure on Israel to achieve a long-term settlement.
The United States, for its part, is already making plans to rebuild Gaza. The US President's Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, plans to visit the region to discuss not only the negotiations, but also the prospects for a large-scale reconstruction of the sector.
On February 27, negotiations between Israel and Hamas on the next phase of the cease-fire in the Gaza Strip began in Cairo. According to Israeli officials, Tel Aviv's goal is to reach an agreement to extend the ceasefire for another 42 days, during which more Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be released.
White House Special Representative Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to the region as early as Sunday, March 2, to also join the talks.
President Trump said at a cabinet meeting that the transfer of the bodies is the completion of the first phase of the deal and the beginning of the second phase. "Now Israel will have to decide what it wants to do," the American leader commented.
Buy time
Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Telegram channel Eastern Gate, noted in an interview with Izvestia that Israel and Hamas have at least a desire to gain time and receive dividends.
— This will allow Hamas to replenish its ranks, rearm, and regroup in case of a resumption of hostilities. The continuation of the deal will allow the Israelis to get more hostages. If the parties have a principled attitude to make the deal work, it will work," the political scientist is sure.
In his opinion, on the one hand, Israel and Hamas will in any case discuss the details and come to some kind of understanding.
— On the other hand, there is a key problem. It concerns, in my opinion, mutually exclusive demands from Israel and Hamas. The Israeli goal is to eliminate the rule of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the demand of Hamas is the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. And how this moment will be resolved is not entirely clear yet. At this stage, until the parties come to fundamental contradictions, the dialogue can be delayed as much as possible," the specialist explained.
Need a break
Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that it is quite difficult to predict the outcome of the negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
— In fact, everything will be tied solely to how Trump behaves and what kind of rhetoric Washington will adhere to. There are two main vectors. The first is verbal politics, that is, the American authorities will try to implement what they have said. We are talking about the projects proposed by Trump over the past few weeks, in general, his vision of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, such an option is unlikely.
— Americans will return to a realistic policy after all: the perception of regional processes as they occur, and not as someone sees it somewhere. Trump has already done this," the expert explained.
Krylov adds that Israel needs this deal very limited. The return of prisoners is one of the tasks of the Netanyahu administration, which gives him certain political points in the rather unstable internal political situation in Israel after the end of the conflict.
The interlocutor stressed that Israel refuses to release the Philadelphia Corridor, stating that this is the main aspect of security and the only option in which it is possible to stop the supply of contraband weapons.
— Hamas is now very weakened, as is Hezbollah, especially given the defeat of the government of Bashar al-Assad and the restriction of arms supply routes from Iran to Lebanon, and in general in connection with the future destabilization of Syria due to the arrival of HTS (banned in the Russian Federation), — the analyst emphasized.
According to the orientalist, Israel needs a break now to regroup, re—equip, and rearm, including the supply of new weapons from the United States, Krylov concluded.
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