Macron's initiatives could lead to a clash with Trump. Analysis
Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron has been increasingly vocal about his desire to confront Russia, even to the point of using nuclear weapons. Also, together with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he plans to assemble a group of countries that are ready to provide military support to Ukraine in the event of a cease-fire. Why these and other initiatives of the French leader may lead to a clash with US President Donald Trump is described in the Izvestia article.
What does Macron propose?
• After Trump's arrival in the White House, relations between the United States and its allies in Europe have cooled. The American president stressed that Washington is not going to ensure the security of Europeans, but wants to focus on domestic policy and countering the strengthening of China. His team noted that now the European Union must deal with its own defense first of all. Macron wants to take advantage of the change in US policy by ensuring France's role as the main European power. In his opinion, Washington's gradual withdrawal from the continent may play into the hands of Paris.
In recent months, Macron has intensified his bellicose rhetoric. So, in March of this year, the French leader announced that European countries could send peacekeepers and instructors to Ukraine without Russia's consent. He warned that the number of potential troops could reach several thousand. At the same time, he noted that their main task would be to conduct training missions and demonstrate solidarity with Kiev.
• The UK added that the "coalition of the willing" to resolve the conflict in Ukraine may include more than 30 countries. It is expected that France will definitely be included in the group, the rest of the alleged participants were not reported.
• Macron also suggested that Europe use the French nuclear deterrent arsenal to protect the entire continent from threats from Russia. But it is unclear which countries will be able to count on protection. In the Kremlin, Macron's statements about the "nuclear umbrella" for Europe were called very dangerous, and the French themselves, judging by the messages on social networks, considered that the president was dragging them into a military conflict with Moscow.
In France, Macron's other initiatives are also criticized. Many citizens do not support the idea of participating in the conflict in Ukraine and do not want their compatriots to die because of the ambitions of the French president. According to a survey by the CSA Institute for Social Research, cited by Europe 1 radio station, 76% of French people are against sending troops to Ukraine.
• At the same time, French Eurosceptic leader Florian Philippot has already called for Macron's impeachment because of his bellicose words about Russia. In his opinion, the overplayed leader of France is dangerous for his country.
What is the reason for Macron's activity?
With his vivid statements on foreign policy, Macron seeks to shift the focus from domestic issues. In France, for the first time since 1962, the parliament expressed no confidence in the government. The opposition demands the resignation of President Macron (we wrote more about the French political crisis here). But he is not going to leave, which he announced in an address to the people on December 5.
• Instead of solving domestic political problems, Macron wants to realize his ambitions in international relations. He is trying to lead the process of militarization of Europe and transform the EU from an economic bloc into a more rigid union with a serious military and political component. At the same time, Macron seeks to strengthen France's position by taking advantage of the fact that only Paris has nuclear weapons in the European Union.
• At the same time, there is an obvious leadership crisis in the European Union. For decades, the system has been designed to ensure that top positions are filled by rather faceless bureaucrats who suit the maximum number of countries.
• However, besides Macron, other politicians are trying to realize their political ambitions due to the conflict in Ukraine, in particular, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her deputy chairman Kaya Kallas. Their positions are almost identical — all three are primarily in favor of increasing defense spending, ignoring other problems of unification, for example, the failed migration policy. This makes it difficult to single out one of them as an unconditional political leader. However, it is very difficult to assess the support among the population, because appointments to positions in the European Commission occur in isolation from the direct expression of will.
• It is unlikely that Macron will be able to unite the entire European Union around himself. This is difficult both technically, because there are many countries in the union, and because many do not share the neoliberal views of the French leader.
With his vivid statements, in particular, about Paris's readiness, if necessary, to use nuclear weapons to protect the entire EU, Macron can provoke a serious military and political crisis on the European continent.
How likely is a conflict with Trump?
• Macron is the first European leader to meet with Donald Trump after his return to the White House. Starmer followed him to Washington to meet with Trump.
• Trump insists on an early cease-fire. Macron's initiatives are exactly the opposite. However, the French leader expects to maintain good relations with the head of the White House due to their long-standing acquaintance.
• Macron and Trump have known each other since Trump's first presidency. Even then, the French leader drew attention to the fact that for his American counterpart, personal connections play an important role in world politics. Macron will probably try to use this to his advantage. However, there is an important caveat: Trump does not tolerate being opposed by those whom he does not perceive as equals. And Washington's attitude towards Paris has always been somewhat arrogant.
• Relations between the United States and the European Union will continue to deteriorate. This is due not only to Macron's figure, but also to the objective contradictions that exist between Brussels and Washington. The key controversial points were voiced in Munich by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance (we wrote more about his speech here). Competition, both financial and industrial, as well as political— between American and European politicians will increase.
When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:
- political scientist Natalia Yeremina;
- Advisor to the Director of RISI (Russian Institute for Strategic Studies) Dmitry Bunevich;
- Alexey Makarkin, First Vice President of the Center for Political Technologies.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
