The EU expects to return U.S. support to Ukraine. And here's why
The EU will not pull the conflict alone
• The scandal in the White House (we wrote about it in more detail here)It came as a surprise to European leaders, who expressed disagreement with Trump's position on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with the US president to convince him to accept Zelensky to sign an agreement on minerals that takes into account the interests of Ukraine. Western leaders intervened after harsh rhetoric between Washington and Kiev jeopardized continued support.Ukraine from the United States.
• The United Kingdom and France have announced that they have begun preparing their own plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, and Italy and Canada may also participate in its development. The leaders of the European powers do not hide that they are doing this primarily in order to interest the United States in continuing to support Ukraine after Zelensky's major diplomatic failure. The terms of the European "peace plan" are likely to overlap with Zelensky's unrealistic "victory plan" and be rejected by Russia, which is consistent with the EU's intentions to continue the conflict.
• Despite the fact that Europe is pursuing the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia and is not interested in ending its military operation soon, the EU countries are not ready to support Kiev on their own. In 2022-2024, the total amount of military, humanitarian and financial assistance provided to Kiev by the United States amounted to 114 billion euros, and the European Union and non-EU countries Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom all financed Ukraine for 132 billion euros. Such data приводит Kiel Institute of World Economy.
• Europe will not be able to compensate Ukraine for the loss of access to American intelligence data and Starlink satellite terminals, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been using since the beginning of the conflict. However, the owner of the provider company, Elon Musk, denied the possibility of disabling Starlink for Ukraine. Analysts also consider the termination of cooperation with Kiev in the field of intelligence unlikely. But in the event of a serious split in relations between Ukraine and the United States, it will be more difficult for the troops to use Western weapons, because American specialists were engaged in programming them, that is, aiming at the target.
• At the same time, Britain and France no longer intend to risk relations with the United States: according to Cyrus Starmer, the presentation of the "European plan" and contacts with the American administration will take place without the participation of Ukraine. Europe should become an intermediary in the "toxic relations" between Kiev and Washington.
There is no single position on Ukraine in the EU
• Hungary and Slovakia strongly oppose the continuation of military aid supplies to Kiev. And against the background of the Ukrainian attacks on the infrastructure of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, the coordination of other types of assistance is also under threat. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico called the restoration of Russian gas transit through Ukraine one of the conditions for his country's approval of the next amount to support Ukraine, because "the assistance that the EU and the Slovak Republic provide to Ukraine in various forms cannot be a one-way ticket."
• There is no agreement in the European Union on the settlement of the conflict and the deployment of peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, even among the "hawks". France and the United Kingdom are louder than others about their intention to send peacekeepers, but only with the support of the United States, and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda at the summit in Kiev questioned the need to discuss the peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, since now "there is no cease-fire". He also asked to clarify whether Kiev needs peacekeeping forces to maintain peace or to "enforce peace," probably in connection with Zelensky's calls to ensure Ukraine "peace through force."
• Some countries have their own interests in Ukraine. For example, France expects to gain access to the Ukrainian subsoil. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on February 27 that the French have been negotiating with Kiev on Ukrainian minerals for the needs of the defense complex since October last year. Kiev has already offered European partners to jointly develop fields — a corresponding agreement was signed in 2021. Zelensky later included the supply of natural resources and essential metals to strategic partners in his "victory plan."
The lifting of US anti-Russian sanctions will devalue EU sanctions
• Unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West against Russia have become the main instrument of economic pressure. Despite the fact that the Russian economy was able to adapt to the restrictions (for more information about how the sanctions affected the country's economy, we wrote here), sanctions they have become a nuisance for business. After talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump spoke about the possibility of lifting US sanctions against Russia after a cease-fire is reached.
• The European Union has stated that even if the United States lifts economic restrictions on the Russian economy, the EU does not intend to lift its sanctions. But the effectiveness of the EU's restrictions on Russia directly depends on the support of the United States. Without American bans on technology imports and access to financial markets, European restrictions can be circumvented through third countries, and the lifting of secondary U.S. sanctions on European companies will encourage them to do business with Russia.
Europe fears direct confrontation without US support
• After the Munich Conference, where US Vice President Jay Dee Vance attacked the European Union for deviating from true democratic values, Europe for the first time began to talk about the risk of the collapse of the Atlantic Alliance. In this case, Europe risks facing a serious shortage of weapons, since the United States assumed the main burden of filling the alliance's defense budget.
• The Western press reports concern in European countries over the possible withdrawal of US military personnel from European military bases, despite the fact that Trump has denied these reports. The unpredictability of the American president forces Europeans to prepare for any scenario, including choosing between their own protection and sending military personnel to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.: This plan is being widely discussed by Europe and Kiev, but Russia does not agree to the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine.
• There is no unity in the European Union itself on many issues, including the growth of defense spending. Since the NATO countries are no longer confident that the United States will retain membership in the alliance and, in accordance with the fifth article of the charter, will defend the allied countries if necessary, the EU is discussing the creation of its own military coalition. But существует there is a risk that an increase in the military budget could be used by the European Commission to strengthen its power and influence over national governments.
During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions:
- Director of the International Institute of Political Expertise Evgeny Minchenko;
- political scientist, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Denis Denisov;
- political scientist, Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
