He parroted and stopped: Europe is changing its strategy in the Ukrainian crisis
European leaders are looking for opportunities, if not to hinder, then at least to participate in the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. Paris and London are making attempts to stop Donald Trump and interfere in negotiations with Russia. Brussels declares its readiness to continue supporting Kiev.Izvestia has studied the reasons why European capitals are entering a new stage of the Ukrainian crisis and what goals they are pursuing in it.
France: oscillatory movements
On February 24, Emmanuel Macron arrived in Washington on an official visit. As the European press wrote about this, the purpose of his mission was to convince Donald Trump of the need to support the British-French initiative to deploy a military contingent in Ukraine. According to the President of the Fifth Republic, these troops will not necessarily have to be located on the front line, but will be present "as a guarantee." U.S. assistance was a "key element" of the initiative's success. Thus, it was not about peacekeeping forces, but about direct military support for Kiev from NATO member states, which would put an end to any peace initiatives launched by the Trump team.According to experts, the European deployment of troops was, on the one hand, to bring the United States back into the conflict on the positions of Ukraine, on the other hand, to compensate for the lack of financial resources in European capitals sufficient for long—term support for Kiev.
French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump
However, as it turned out after the negotiations, only Trump got what he wanted. The parties confirmed that Europe should deal with Ukraine's security, but the involvement of the United States in this process is still impossible.
It is noteworthy, however, that 10 days ago, in an interview with the Financial Times, the head of the Fifth Republic said that the idea of joint deployment of troops was "far-fetched."
The diplomatic "hesitations" of Emmanuel Macron, both during the three years of the special military operation and over the past few weeks, have been widely discussed in the press.In the first months of his term, the French president made a lot of efforts to earn a reputation as Europe's political leader and the main mediator in the conflict. Then, after an unsuccessful PR-приемаIn October 2022, the rhetoric changed, and Macron shifted his approach to what he called "strategic uncertainty." It mainly concerned the possibility of an official decision to send French troops to Ukraine. Although they were there anyway, as Moscow has repeatedly said заявляла.
After three years of conflict, France has probably remained Europe's main communicator in the framework of the Ukrainian case. However, Macron failed to achieve real leadership, which could be supported by effective military and political tools. On the contrary, Paris has not only failed to complete any of its own integration initiatives, but in some cases publicly противостоял an ally of the Ukrainian project, Germany. Tellingly, Berlin's main reproach against him was the lack of real action amid an abundance of high-profile statements.On February 21, at an extraordinary EU summit (also convened at the initiative of Paris), Emmanuel Macron announced that Russia was an "existential threat" to Europe. But on the 24th, following a meeting with Donald Trump, he stated the need to return to dialogue with the Russian Federation and seek a peaceful settlement that could be reached "within a few weeks." At the same time, a month before the visit to Washington, the French president призывал do not flatter yourself and do not expect that the efforts of his American colleague will bring quick results.
Such maneuvers by Macron are explained by an attempt to adapt to the current situation, but they do not contribute to maintaining the image of the "leader of Europe," says Pavel Timofeev, head of the Regional Problems and Conflicts Sector at the Primakov International Economic Institute.
— Macron's fluctuations depend on the changing situation. At the same time, the strategic goal has not changed — to achieve a result that could be presented to the public as the defeat of Russia. Macron is concerned about Trump's rejection of Euro-Atlantic solidarity in this story, as well as the need to bear financial responsibility for Kiev and provide it with military assistance. And now, with the emergence of the Russian track in US foreign policy, France and Europe risk being sidelined in the negotiation process altogether. It's hard to imagine what they can offer Russia," the expert states.
Timofeev adds that from the moment France joined the pan-European strategy of absolute support for Kiev, it lost the opportunity to claim the role of mediator. Paris has a desire to stay in the thick of events and influence them, but it does not have a positive agenda and instruments of influence.
Great Britain: a special level of dispute
Following Macron, Keir Starmer arrives in Washington on February 27 with the same proposals, with whom, according to European media, the French president had previously agreed to deliver a "single message." Meanwhile, London is trying to play its own game in this situation, also acting as a mediator — this time between the United States and the EU. However, at the moment, Britain's status as an ally with a "special relationship" has noticeably faded, not least through the fault of the head of the Labor government himself. The idea of sending British and French troops to Ukraine was sharply criticized by Trump even before Macron and Starmer reached Washington. "They didn't do anything. Macron is my friend, and I met with the Prime Minister, he's a very nice guy... [but] no one did anything," the US president said.
Meanwhile, there is another item on the agenda of the visit of the head of the British government. It concerns the upcoming redistribution of Ukrainian assets. As you know, in the middle of January Kiev and London подписали agreement on strategic cooperation for a period of 100 years. Among other things, it guaranteed the British access to resources, including Ukrainian grain. The Russian Foreign Ministry has an agreement
In addition, Starmer will try to find an approach to the issue entered Trump imposed import duties on steel products in the amount of 25%. This issue is critically important for London, as these restrictions could bring down an entire branch of British industry, for which the United States is the second largest export market.
Germany: the rhetoric of a new leader
The leader of the CDU/CSU, who won the German elections, Friedrich Merz, whom some Western media previously called "German Trump," promised in his very first speech to seek "independence" from the United States. He stated that NATO in its current form may lose relevance and allowed the creation of its exclusively European counterpart. In these circumstances, he concluded, the most important task is to "unite Europe" and build up its defense capabilities. Literally the same thing has been repeated by Emmanuel Macron for several years.
At the same time, Merz, due to his corporate past (from 2016 to 2020, he was chairman of the German division of BlackRock, participated in meetings of the Bilderberg Club), is reasonably considered one of the European globalists and, as a result, they expect him to be one hundred percent consistent with the European Union. This, of course, also applies to the Ukrainian issue — the candidate for chancellor has already made a number of harsh statements.
Chairman of the CDU/CSU faction Friedrich Merz
Some analysts point out that Merz's "sovereignist" initiatives may come to naught as quickly as the previous ones, as soon as Washington decides to resort to economic instruments of influence on its "allies." Moreover, Germany's interests in this case will suffer more than others due to the structure of its economy. At the same time, as Vladislav Belov, head of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasizes, Merz demonstrates the rigidity of approaches, which, on the contrary, can contribute to establishing a dialogue with the United States.
— So far, these are just the words of a candidate for the post of chancellor. Yes, Merz is a Transatlanticist who knows the structure of American power and the decision—making system well. He certainly expressed support for the position of the European Union and at the same time demonstrated that he can talk tough with Trump on behalf of Europe, unlike what Starmer and Macron are doing now. And in this sense, I think Merz has a chance to come to an agreement with Trump. "Independence from the United States" in this case is a statement of readiness to fulfill its obligations within the framework of NATO, which may mean an increase in defense purchases, the expert concludes.
The EU: an existential benefit
Against the background of an open conflict with Trump, the leadership of the European Union sees another chance to strengthen its influence on the continent. The leading role in this process is played by Ursula von der Leyen, who has been repeatedly accused in the EU of attempts to usurp power. The EU announces new sanctions against Russia and new packages of financial assistance to Kiev. And the head of the European Commission considers the Ukrainian crisis to be a "struggle for survival in which the fate of Europe is at stake," meaning, probably, the future of the European Union.
In this regard, it becomes extremely important for Brussels to achieve its participation in the negotiations, which is not happening yet, despite all efforts. This is not only about the political status of the EU, but also, possibly, the economic benefits of the union. During the visit of an extensive European delegation to Kiev, Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stefan Sejournay offered Ukraine an alternative deal on minerals, stating that, unlike American demands, it would be beneficial to both sides.
"Ukraine can provide 21 of the 30 essential materials needed by Europe as part of a mutually beneficial partnership. The additional value that Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that is not mutually beneficial," Sejourné said.
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