Migration exodus: U.S. policy threatens relations with Latin America
The U.S. president's drastic steps to deport illegal migrants have caused serious friction with Latin American countries. Thus, the US and Colombia exchanged mutual threats to impose trade duties and visa restrictions. Brazil accused the US of inhuman treatment of deported migrants - they said that they flew home with their legs and hands tied. At the same time, experts believe that Colombia's reaction is likely to be the only decisive step against the migration policy of the United States. Nevertheless, Latin American countries may reconsider their economic cooperation with the United States and turn their attention to China, which is confidently expanding its influence in the region, as well as to other BRICS countries, including Russia. Against this backdrop, new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is heading on a Latin American tour this week. How Trump's policy will affect the situation in the region - in the material of "Izvestia".
Trump's migration policy intensifies contradictions between the US and Latin America
A diplomatic confrontation between the U.S. and Colombia lasted several hours, the reason for which was Trump's campaign to expel illegal migrants. It all started when Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to accept several US military planes with 160 deported migrants on board on January 26.
In response, new White House chief of staff Donald Trump said he would impose 25 percent duties on imports of Colombian goods to the United States, and further increase them to 50 percent. Petro responded in a mirror-like manner, ordering tariffs of 25% on US goods. In addition, the states threatened to revoke the visas of Colombian politicians, and said they would increase controls on Colombians crossing U.S. borders. Petro, on the other hand, called on all Americans illegally in his country to legalize their status as soon as possible.
However, the crisis was resolved the same evening, ending the mutual threats. Sanctions on both sides were also partially lifted.
Tension also appeared in US relations with Brazil. The foreign ministry of the South American state accused the Trump administration of inhuman treatment of Brazilian migrants - 88 people were on a deportation flight with their hands handcuffed and legs bound. According to the migrants, they were not given water or allowed to use the restroom during the four-hour flight. It was also very hot on board, from which some even fainted.
It was reported that Mexico also refused to accept the deportation flight. However, after the authorities reported that they are ready to cooperate with the U.S. on this issue and in general are always open to the return of their deported citizens. Nevertheless, there are still contradictions between the states, and they arose because Donald Trump unilaterally returned the Quédate en México ("Stay in Mexico") program. It involves waiting for an asylum decision on Mexican territory, potentially threatening Mexico with a major migration crisis.
To discuss the current migrant situation, the temporary presidency of CELAC (Commonwealth of Latin America and the Caribbean) Honduras convened an emergency meeting on January 30.
At the same time, the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will embark on a tour of Latin America. He plans to visit Panama, which is especially relevant against the background of the conflict over the Panama Canal, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and El Salvador. By the way, with the latter, the U.S. is expected to conclude an agreement on deportation of foreign migrants, who for some reason can not be sent to their native countries. Against this background, El Salvador is seen as a potential partner for the States, given Donald Trump's close relationship with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Consequences of US conflict with Latin American countries
The example of Colombia should warn the countries of the region against potential protests against U.S. plans to get rid of illegal migrants, Latin American experts say. They have something to fear: Mike Johnson, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, said that Congress is ready to impose sanctions and take other measures against those countries that refuse to fulfill Washington's requirements in the fight against illegal immigrants.
At the same time, there will likely be no strong retaliation from other Latin American countries. The next CELAC meeting is likely to discuss domestic steps to respond to U.S. actions rather than retaliatory measures.
- Negative reactions to Trump's migration policies were most likely from Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia because all three states have leftist anti-American governments in power, but only Colombia has done so. It is no longer likely to expect such fallout from other countries. Everything suggests that most Latin American countries will react to the deportations mildly," said Andrei Pyatakov, a leading researcher at ILA RAS.
The states are also disadvantaged by the deterioration of relations with Latin American countries due to their strong economic ties with the region.
For example, Colombia is the third largest U.S. trading partner in Latin America, branches of American companies in this country create about 90 thousand jobs. One third of Colombian exports go to the U.S. market - from January to October 2024, this figure reached $13 billion. Thus, one third of all coffee consumed by Americans is from Colombia. In addition, the Latin American state is one of the main suppliers of flowers to the United States. Last year for Valentine's Day, the U.S. purchased 700 million units in Colombia. The Colombian market is also attractive for the U.S., they, in turn, exported $13.4 billion worth of goods there in the first ten months of 2024, mainly gasoline, corn, electronics, soy products and aircraft parts.
Deteriorating relations with Brazil also threatens the U.S. with economic costs, given that the country is historically the largest economy in the Latin American region. Last year, Brazil increased exports to the U.S. by 9.2%, reaching an all-time high of $40.3 billion.
The U.S. has the closest economic ties with its immediate neighbor, Mexico. 83.1% of Mexican exports go to the U.S., and U.S. goods account for 40.2% of Mexican imports. In addition, the mass deportation of Mexican citizens means an outflow of cheap labor. According to experts, this could increase inflation in the US.
Moreover, an overly aggressive US policy toward migrants risks making Latin American countries more vulnerable to Chinese economic "expansion." This is exactly what Trump has been trying to prevent since his first term.
- China has a strong foothold in Latin America. If partners potentially turn away from the U.S. as a result of aggressive policies, they may turn toward China. The PRC is actively developing its infrastructure in Latin America. Last year, for example, negotiations were activated to build the Nicaraguan Canal as an alternative to the Panama Canal. China also has several ports in Latin America, particularly in Peru and Cuba," says Andrei Pyatakov.
By the way, together with China, Russia as a member of BRICS will have additional opportunities, foreign experts believe. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year, so it is possible that some countries in the region will want to cooperate with the association. One of the potential candidates for partnership with BRICS is Colombia. For example, Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo spoke about interest in the association in his November interview with Izvestia.
