Business withdrawal: will Zelensky lose US support after conflict with Trump
Although Zelensky's new conflict with Trump worries the Europeans, they are betting on sitting out the current American administration, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This, in particular, is facilitated by the risks of the Republican Party losing the congressional elections. While Trump is in power, Ukraine may lose US support.: The White House has all the levers to cut off Kiev from intelligence, block arms shipments through European funds, and even disable Starlink satellite communications. In parallel, the United Kingdom and the European Commission will try to disrupt the agreement on diesel between Moscow and Washington, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Trump increases pressure on Zelensky
Vladimir Zelensky attacked Donald Trump over the diesel deal between Russia and the United States. This agreement, useful not only to Moscow and Washington, but also to the entire global economy, seriously alarmed Kiev. According to Western media estimates, the head of the Kiev regime is not interested in making concessions to Washington now.
On October 9, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agreed that the United States would lift sanctions on Russian diesel by April 7, 2027, and Moscow agreed to supply about 5 million tons of this fuel to the United States and world markets in the near future. Zelensky reacted so negatively to this that the American leader had to raise the issue of the need for elections in Ukraine again. Zelensky's official term of office expired back in May 2024.
There are also reasons to believe that the United States has begun to restrict the transfer of intelligence to Kiev. On the morning of October 13, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that high-precision ground weapons had been fired at Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities and railway infrastructure at night. At the same time, the press service of the AFU Air Force reported that the military had not received timely data on the launch of ballistic missiles.
Later, Vladimir Zelensky confirmed that on October 12, Kiev was left without partner intelligence on ballistics. However, Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga immediately tried to smooth over the situation: he hastened to assure that the exchange of information with the United States was continuing, and attributed the delay to the technical features of the weapons used by Russia. On the evening of October 13, Trump himself noted that the United States continues to transfer intelligence to the Kiev regime.
At the same time, the White House demands that Ukraine stop attacks on Russian refineries. In this regard, the American administration threatened to completely cut off support through the PURL mechanism, which allows Kiev to purchase American weapons with the money of European countries. In addition, according to Politico, Washington may put pressure on SpaceX founder Elon Musk to turn off Ukraine's Starlink satellite communications if Kiev continues to attack Russian refineries.
The limitation of intelligence from the American satellite group could be Trump's response to Kiev's attempt to disrupt the diesel deal, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.
"European intelligence agencies are not able to fully replace such functionality of the Americans,— he said. — But these are not restrictions. There's a whole other set here. These include the supply of weapons, the formation of orders, and the impact on the financing of these projects. That is, the Americans have both hidden and open levers that can seriously influence Ukraine's position.
Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that the owner of the White House could now announce new sanctions relief for Moscow, beneficial to the US economy. At the same time, such a step would serve as a powerful lever of pressure on both Zelensky and Kiev's European allies.
What will Europe do?
Another escalation of relations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky is increasingly worrying Kiev's European allies. The reason for the concern of officials in Europe was the sarcastic comments of Zelensky, who said that Washington should have made a deal not with Moscow, but with Kiev, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces could influence the operation of Russian refineries with their attacks. These statements, made at the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12, made the Europeans shudder, writes the Financial Times.
In February last year, there was a major public quarrel between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. Then the head of the Kiev regime reproached the American leader for unwillingness to defend the interests of Kiev and called any compromises with Moscow impossible. The host of the White House, in turn, accused the guest of ingratitude and disrespect, stressing that he was trying to resolve the conflict with Russia.
Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump
European politicians, as in the current situation, demonstratively supported Zelensky, and later tried to make various concessions to the United States, in particular on trade issues. In addition, personal diplomacy was involved. For example, Finnish President Alexander Stubb visited Trump.
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the Europeans may now change their approach. While the United States is bogged down in the conflict with Iran, Europe is betting on sitting out the current American administration, whose term of office expires in just over two years.
According to Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, European leaders will try to delay the situation in anticipation of the results of the November 3 congressional elections in order to assess Trump's real political influence. The Republican Party risks losing the election campaign due to the low rating of the president.
The EU will openly sympathize with candidates from the Democratic Party, hoping for a return to the pre-Trump era, political analyst Mikhail Kucherov believes. He emphasizes that it is beneficial for the Europeans to keep Zelensky in power, since he consistently promotes their interests and helps to use Ukraine for confrontation with Russia.
Interestingly, at the same time, information began to appear in the American press about the alleged new plan of the United States and Europe to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. According to The Washington Post, this draft includes five main provisions. Among them, for example, the provision of security guarantees to Kiev, comparable to the fifth article of the NATO Charter on collective defense. There are provisions on easing anti-Russian sanctions, as well as on the possibility of resuming oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe. On October 13, the Kremlin reported that so far they had only seen media reports about possible discussions of such a peace plan.
In the meantime, European countries will try to push Ukraine to take steps that will disrupt the implementation of the Russian-American agreements on diesel, Rodion Miroshnik notes. According to him, it will be mainly the United Kingdom and the European Commission headed by Ursula von der Leyen who will call for this.
Miroshnik emphasizes that Zelensky's main curators are in London. As soon as Donald Trump publicly announced the need for elections in Ukraine, the head of the Kiev regime immediately turned to his British patrons for instructions.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
