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- A closed friend: what changes the conclusion of a diesel deal between the United States and Russia
A closed friend: what changes the conclusion of a diesel deal between the United States and Russia
The conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of the White House, Donald Trump, has significantly changed the situation around Ukraine. The United States not only temporarily eased restrictions on Russian fuel, but also increased pressure on Kiev, again demanding an end to attacks on Russian refineries. The diesel deal showed that Moscow and Washington can develop relations in other areas beyond the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The ministry does not rule out that European countries will try to prevent the implementation of the new Russian-American agreements through Kiev. The European Parliament also does not expect Brussels to support the US course. At the same time, the deal itself is primarily of political importance, experts say: the declared fuel volumes are not so large as to significantly affect the American market.
The diesel deal between the USA and Russia
Washington has significantly increased pressure on Kiev after an exchange of remarks between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky. According to the Financial Times, the Americans have warned Ukraine and European allies that they may limit the transfer of intelligence and weapons supplies if attacks on Russian refineries continue. This includes blocking the PURL mechanism, according to which European countries purchase weapons from the United States for Ukraine.
After loud statements from Kiev, Trump also called for the election of a new president in Ukraine. Zelensky responded to this in the same way as before: elections in the country can take place, but subject to a 60-day ceasefire.
The reason for a new round of crisis in relations between Kiev and Washington was the so-called diesel deal between the Russian Federation and the United States. Trump attributes the Ukrainian attacks on refineries in Russia to rising global diesel prices: in the United States, its cost has already reached $6.28 per gallon. Since February 28, it has risen in price by about 70%, which is critical for Republicans ahead of the election.
In these circumstances, on October 9, Trump had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For an hour and a half, the leaders discussed Ukraine, the prospects for negotiations and economic issues. After this conversation, instead of making ordinary statements, the White House suddenly announced an agreement: Moscow would immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 in November, and 1 million shortly thereafter. Subsequently, the United States will receive up to 3 million tons more, depending on the state of the Russian refineries.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow was beginning to lift restrictions on diesel exports ahead of schedule and would be able to increase supplies to 3 million tons per month in the future. The U.S. Treasury Department immediately issued the appropriate license until April 7, 2027.
The agreement on diesel was the first practical result of a new direct contact between Moscow and Washington, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. According to him, Russia is interested in developing economic ties with the United States separately from the Ukrainian conflict.
—This is a serious step towards each other, which allows us to say that this direction can develop on other topics and not have the Ukrainian conflict as the main block that prevents the development of Russian-American relations," the diplomat said.
Last February, Vladimir Putin proposed that the United States jointly develop Russian deposits of rare earth metals, and also discussed possible aluminum supplies. In the spring, Kirill Dmitriev, representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said that negotiations on joint projects in the field of rare earths had already begun. Other areas included the Arctic, infrastructure, technology, and energy. In September, the parties discussed possible joint energy projects after the end of the Ukrainian conflict.
Prior to this, cooperation between Moscow and Washington was considered by the White House solely in connection with the results of the Ukrainian settlement. The Americans have repeatedly noted that they intend to discuss joint deals and projects only after the conflict is over. The current agreement has, in fact, violated this approach.
At the same time, it is the economic impact of the deal on the US energy market that is unlikely to be great. Diesel futures actually fell by 5% to $4.64 per gallon, but the volumes agreed upon by the two heads of state are not enough in themselves to sustainably lower prices in the United States. The average daily consumption of diesel in the country is 3.65 million barrels, while the declared 300 thousand tons amount to only 2.25 million.
Therefore, the diesel deal is primarily of political and psychological importance, Evgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the RUDN University, said in a conversation with Izvestia. It is important for Trump to demonstrate to the voters that he is able to negotiate with Russia and find a solution to the problem of high fuel prices.
However, the agreement also has a foreign policy meaning. It also became a signal to Kiev after Trump repeatedly urged not to attack the Russian fuel infrastructure, said Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council.
According to him, Washington could perceive the refusal to take these requests into account as a disregard for the position of a country that continues to provide support to Ukraine. Trump has demonstrated that, if necessary, he is able to negotiate directly with Moscow, without waiting for changes in Kiev's position.
The reaction of the Europeans
At the same time, not only Kiev, but also Europe remained on the sidelines. On the day of Trump's conversation with Putin, the United States held talks in Miami with the Ukrainian delegation and representatives of Germany, France, Great Britain, the EU and NATO on the settlement of the conflict.
The agreement on diesel came as a surprise to Kiev, and as a result, the Ukrainians left Miami a day earlier. Zelensky called Washington's decision "dishonest" and "unfair," after which he called the leaders of Great Britain, Norway, France and Finland. Soon, the Europeans reconfirmed their previous course towards Moscow. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal went further and offered to help Ukraine "turn Russian refineries into ruins."
The differences between the United States and Europe over the attacks on Russian refineries may primarily affect Kiev's actions, Rodion Miroshnik believes.
"The Europeans may well push Kiev to commit direct violations or any provocative steps that would interfere with this deal," the diplomat said.
This approach corresponds to how strikes on refineries are perceived within the EU, Ivan David, an MEP from the Czech Republic, explained in a conversation with Izvestia. In the European space, the attacks are presented as a success for Kiev, so there is no reason to expect a demand from Brussels to stop them yet.
— Yes, the leadership of the European Union continues to look for resources to support the Ukrainian regime, apparently in order to continue the conflict until the West can rearm, — said David.
According to him, European society is gradually preparing for the possibility of a longer confrontation with Russia.
— It is necessary (to return to direct negotiations. — Ed.), but he (Brussels. — Ed.) is not capable of this. His "diplomacy" consists solely in communicating with his allies — and even their number is decreasing. The readiness within the "coalition of the willing" is decreasing," the parliamentarian added.
On October 12, EU foreign ministers will discuss further measures against Russia. The European Union has already agreed on €90 billion for Ukraine for 2026-2027 and is accelerating the allocation of funds for next year. At the same time, the EU is once again discussing the possible confiscation of frozen Russian assets in Euroclear.
The diesel deal showed that the differences between the United States and Europe are now manifested in specific decisions on Russia and Ukraine, Semibratov believes. The EU insists on further sanctions pressure, and Washington has temporarily eased its own restrictions. At the same time, there is no strategic split between them: Europe will continue to support Kiev, while the United States will remain involved in the overall Western security system.
Moreover, there is no single position on the deal within the United States. Six senators from both parties have already demanded to abandon the purchase of Russian diesel. In the House of Representatives, Republican Brian Fitzpatrick intends to put to the vote an initiative against the deal bypassing the leadership of the house, he has already been supported by fellow party member Don Bacon.
Therefore, Trump's current decision should not be perceived as a change in the entire policy of the United States towards Russia. The American elites are divided, and a significant part of them still advocates a hard line against Moscow, and the upcoming congressional elections can only worsen the situation of the current US administration.
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