Frontier on edge: what is the threat of strengthening the Polish army near the borders of Belarus

Poland is strengthening its military presence near the borders of the Union State. There are plans to deploy UAV units, a motorized infantry battalion and additional air defense forces in the Lublin Voivodeship, not far from Belarus and Ukraine. Experts warn that further buildup of forces increases the risk of a direct collision. What Moscow and Minsk should prepare for and how they can respond to Warsaw is in the Izvestia article.

Billions for weapons

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh announced during a press conference that new military units will be deployed in the Lyubel region and Patriot batteries will be deployed.

One of the centers of the unmanned troops will be Lukow, located about 100 km from the Belarusian border. The minister pointed out that over time, an entire UAV brigade will be formed here. Its composition has not yet been disclosed, but the tasks of the unmanned troops have already been outlined by the Polish government: reconnaissance and target destruction.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh

Photo: TASS/TOMASZ WASZCZUK

"This will contribute to improving the effectiveness of reconnaissance and strike systems, as well as the survivability of troops, and will influence the development of a culture of innovation in the Polish armed forces," the government's website says.

To the south, in Bilgorai, about 70 km from the border with Ukraine, a motorized infantry battalion of the 18th motorized brigade will appear. It is part of the 18th Mechanized Division, responsible for the defense of the east of the country, and should strengthen its southeastern section, as well as ensure the rapid transfer of troops. Along with the motorized infantry, air defense units will be deployed in Bilgorai.

Warsaw is already strengthening its air cover over the region. Patriot batteries were transferred to the Lublin Voivodeship. The Polish authorities explain these preparations by the need to protect the country's eastern borders and critical infrastructure.

"I will also ensure that investments in two key voivodeships — Lublin and Subcarpathian — receive absolute priority in the budget for next year. To make it the number one military investment in Poland," Kosinyak-Kamysh said.

Photo: TASS/Soeren Stache

Warsaw has been dramatically increasing defense spending for several years now. In 2026, 200 billion zlotys (about $51 billion), or 4.8% of the projected GDP, is provided for these purposes. For comparison, the authorities invested 53.9 billion zlotys for the development of roads and railways, that is, almost four times less.

Voltage limit

Relations between Warsaw and Minsk have long been far from good-neighborly. One of the turning points was the presidential elections in Belarus in 2020. According to the official results, Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected for a sixth term, but the opposition did not recognize the results of the vote. Mass protests began in the country. The Belarusian leader accused foreign "puppeteers", including Poland, of organizing them. Warsaw has denied these accusations.

Against the background of the conflict with Belarus, Poland began to position itself as one of the main defenders of the eastern borders of the European Union and NATO. In 2024, Warsaw launched the Eastern Shield program. Its value is estimated at about $2.5 billion. The project provides for the construction of fortifications and other defense infrastructure on the borders with Belarus and Russia.

In Minsk, the military reinforcement of the neighbors is perceived as a threat. Earlier, Lukashenko said that Poland and the Baltic states were being turned into a NATO springboard, and warned them against a possible attack on Belarus. "My task is to warn my neighbors: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and possibly, to a certain extent, Ukraine. May the Lord protect them from aggression against Belarus. We don't want a war, we're not going to fight them," the Belarusian leader noted.

Anti-tank barriers on the Polish-Russian border

Photo: TASS/TOMASZ WASZCZUK

Later, the politician allowed the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack and called Poland a country to which Belarus is ready to inflict "unacceptable damage."

At the same time, Warsaw and Minsk have not abandoned attempts to resume political dialogue. In September, Foreign Ministers of Belarus Maxim Ryzhenkov and Poland Radoslaw Sikorski met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. After the talks, the second compared the cautious step towards rapprochement with a snowdrop, which can bloom "if the weather is favorable." However, judging by Poland's recent actions, relations are still far from thawing.

What the experts say

The build-up of troops near the Belarusian borders is connected with NATO's attempt to put pressure on Moscow and Minsk, military expert Vasily Dandykin believes. The transfer of units is designed, among other things, to produce a psychological effect.

— The so-called elite troops are being deployed to the borders. This is an attempt to exert moral pressure in the hope that Moscow and Minsk will be afraid. The Poles are also diligent. The Americans are supplying them with F-35s. Poles pay, but for Americans, money is the first and most important thing," he said.

Photo: TASS/IMAGO/DAMIAN BURZYKOWSKI

European countries have invested heavily in support of Ukraine, the source adds. Therefore, Brussels is not ready to accept either Kiev's defeat or a peace agreement on Russian terms.

— But as for the likelihood of direct war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said what it will be like: using all the means and forces that the country has. Russia, of course, cannot compare with the West either in terms of population or economic potential. But there are other means of destruction and delivery of weapons, for example, the same "Hazel". So we need to show calmness, further develop weapons, prepare for other tests and bring the fighting in Ukraine to victory," the specialist emphasizes.

Glimpses of reason: Poland restores transport links with Belarus

Is normalization of relations possible

Igor Korotchenko, a military expert and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, also considers the creation of new Polish units as preparation for a possible conflict with Russia and Belarus. Moreover, Poland is the most militarized country on the eastern flank of NATO.

— The creation of new units of unmanned systems, units and formations, and their deployment near a potential theater of military operations is a consequence of the policy that the Polish authorities have been pursuing in recent years, especially since the beginning of their military operation. Regardless of the names and party affiliation of the president and the prime Minister, this course remains unchanged," he points out in an interview with Izvestia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Attila Husejnow

According to him, the Russian armed forces, including the Baltic Fleet and groups in the Kaliningrad region and in the north-west of the country, have the means to repel threats from NATO.

"If Poland commits aggression against Belarus or Russia, retaliatory actions will include tactical nuclear strikes against groups of Polish troops, as well as critical military infrastructure facilities in that country," he says.

Korotchenko believes that deterrence should be based on the army's willingness to respond and the political will of the country's leadership.

— There is no need to make loud statements and designate "red lines" — they are already boring everyone. The main thing is that the whole mechanism should be worked out from beginning to end with the possibility of an immediate response," the expert concluded.