Glimpses of reason: Poland restores transport links with Belarus

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced that Warsaw will reopen the Kuznica Bialystocka and Bobrovniki border crossings, which once connected Poland with Belarus, in the near future. Both crossings have been closed for several years: "Kuznitsa" — since November 2021, "Bobrovniki" — since February 2023. The government took this step under pressure from the population of Podlaskie voivodeship, located on the western side of the Belarusian border. But there may be other pragmatic considerations: to raise earnings through Chinese transit. The details are in the Izvestia article.

Slow strangulation

At one time, Poland and Belarus were closely connected economically: therefore, there was a lively cross-border movement. Previously, there were six checkpoints on the Polish-Belarusian border. However, five years ago, the Polish side unilaterally closed its Slavatyche (Domachevo) and Polovtsy (Peschatka) checkpoints under the pretext of the Covid-19 pandemic raging at that time. And after a while, Warsaw accused Minsk of the alleged "Lukashenko regime" deliberately driving migrants from third world countries to the Polish border. Under this pretext, the Kuznitsa Belostotskaya checkpoint (Bruzgi) was closed in the fall of 2021.

After that, most of the traffic fell on the Bobrovniki checkpoint (Brestovitsa), which was the main border crossing point in the Grodno region and one of the largest on the Polish—Belarusian border. In December 2022, according to the Polish State Border Service, almost 111 thousand people passed through this checkpoint in both directions. However, in February 2023, Warsaw also blocked the Bobrowniki: the then Polish Minister of the Interior, Mariusz Kaminski, explained this step by "the interests of state security."

This was followed by the closure of the multi-vehicle checkpoint "Kukuryki" ("Kozlovichi"), which was used by cargo trucks: it ceased to operate in July 2024. However, later traffic was allowed there again, but on a limited scale. As experts complained, no more than 50% of the capacity of this border crossing or 600-650 trucks were passed there daily in both directions, which led to the emergence of multi—kilometer queues. Also, the Terespol checkpoint (Brest), intended for passenger cars, was still open on the border of Poland with Belarus.

At the same time, it is noteworthy that there was an increasing flow of complaints about the closure of border posts, not so much from Belarusians as from Poles themselves. Back in early 2023, the edition of Niezależny Dziennik Polityczny wrote that the closure of border crossings hit those Poles who did business with Belarusian companies, have relatives abroad, and in the years before the pandemic, they got used to using the right to freedom of movement enshrined in the Polish constitution in one way or another. Many Poles, by the way, at one time got used to buying cheap Belarusian goods without leaving their territory — from the hands of incoming dealers. But with the efforts of the authorities, this business began to "collapse" quickly.

Belarus, as you know, responded to Poland asymmetrically by introducing visa—free entry for Poles. But even after being freed from the need to apply for visas to a neighboring country, Polish residents could not easily overcome the "iron curtain" diligently erected on the border by their own government. Therefore, last summer, deputies of the Polish Podlaskie voivodeship demanded that the state authorities open at least one additional crossing on the border with Belarus. It suddenly became clear to the deputies that the closed border was stifling local businesses and hindering the development of the region, as Polish entrepreneurs faced logistical problems and lost customers from Belarus. Representatives of the rather influential Confederation party said the same thing — they insisted on reopening the Bobrovniki and Kuznitsa Belostotskaya checkpoints.

Two-week downtime

The representative of the Confederation, Zbigniew Kasperchuk, emphasizes: "These crossings are incredibly important for our businessmen who have suffered from their closure. Today we stand shoulder to shoulder with these entrepreneurs, because their situation is very difficult. The government has abandoned them to their fate, does not conduct a dialogue with them and does not offer them any solutions." Kasperchuk added that the closure of both border crossings in Podlaskie voivodeship led to a loss of 970 million zloty (about € 230 million), "evaporated from the pockets of Podlaskie entrepreneurs" — this amount is 52% of the voivodeship budget for 2025.

However, instead of meeting its own business halfway, Warsaw worsened its situation even more. On the night of September 12, the Polish government, using the Zapad-2025 Russian-Belarusian exercises as an excuse, finally closed the border with Belarus. This step affected not only these two countries — the event had geopolitical consequences. The trade route, which transported 90% of railway cargo from China and the European Union, was blocked. In particular, the corridor between Poland and Belarus accounted for 3.7% of all trade between the EU and China. Yes, this is a relatively small but quite important part of the trade turnover carried out between China and the EU.

There was a discussion in Beijing about bypass routes that China could activate if the Polish window remained boarded up. The matter was not limited to discussions alone: on September 22, the Chinese sent the container ship Istanbul Bridge along the Northern Sea Route on a flight from the port of Ningbo-Zhoushan to the British harbor of Philixstowe. But at the same time as looking for workarounds, Beijing has also taken active measures aimed at unblocking the Polish route. The actions of the Chinese leadership can be understood, because Warsaw's trick resulted in the suspension of rail freight traffic between China and the EU in the amount of 25 billion euros per year.

In less than two weeks, when the border was closed, more than 130 Chinese trains with billions of euros worth of goods accumulated on it. Naturally, Beijing, not wanting to lose such money, tried to negotiate with Poland and solve the sudden problem as soon as possible. Apparently, the Chinese managed to find the necessary arguments: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that on the night of September 25, his country would reopen border crossings on the border with Belarus. According to Tusk, the completion of the Zapad-2025 exercises reduces "the level of various threats," therefore, "guided by economic interests, the government decided to open the border." However, as the prime minister warned, the Polish authorities "will not hesitate if tensions rise again."

Thus, the Terespol—Brest border crossing is currently open for passenger car traffic between the two countries, and the Kukuryki—Kozlovichi border crossing for trucks. There are also several railway freight crossings. At the same time, it could give the impression that Warsaw would not make further concessions. So, the construction of a second fence on the border with Belarus began recently in Podlaskie voivodeship. The installation of the new structure is expected to be completed in January. This barrier will be a four-meter-high wall of metal mesh, at the foot of which barbed wire will be laid. The Poles erected the first major barrier here in 2022: at that time, a 5.5-meter-high metal wall was installed on a 180-kilometer section, also covered with barbed wire. The border is equipped with poles with motion sensors and all-weather surveillance cameras, and in 2024 this border underwent modernization.

Showed pragmatism

However, on October 28, a signal was received that was unexpected for many: Prime Minister Tusk announced that the Polish authorities were ready to open two more checkpoints on the border with Belarus in November. The Prime Minister stressed that he had temporarily postponed the opening of these checkpoints due to the need to coordinate actions with Lithuania. On October 29, Vilnius decided to close the Lithuanian-Belarusian border until the end of November, but it is possible that this regime will be extended. The Lithuanian authorities used the mass raids of balloons carrying a cargo of cheap contraband cigarettes of Belarusian production as an excuse.

At the same time, the Lithuanian government completely forgot that there are over a thousand Lithuanian trucks operating cargo flights on Belarusian territory: after the border was closed, they were trapped. When their owners complained, Lithuania arrogantly demanded that the Belarusians release these trucks back. Alexander Lukashenko naturally refused: he insists on the resumption of cross—border traffic, as it was before the beginning of November. Meanwhile, Lithuanian transport carriers are incurring enormous losses due to downtime and the need to pay for truck security in parking lots.

And against this background, on November 14, a message spread like lightning that Poland would resume the operation of the Kuznitsa Bialystotskaya —Bruzgi and Bobrovniki —Berestovitsa crossings. At first, he was treated with distrust, but soon she received confirmation from the very top. "I confirm. These crossings will be opened at the beginning of the week," Tusk said. This caused great joy among the inhabitants of Podlasie, who were already anticipating the resumption of extensive trade with Belarusians. For once, the people of Podlasie found words of approval for their own government.

The Polish Ministry of the Interior notes that the opening of these two border posts should restore the flow of people and goods and meet the needs of businesses and carriers. Bobrovniki — Berestovitsa is planned to be opened for passenger transport, buses and partly for trucks, but only for vehicles registered in the European Union, the European Free Trade Association and Switzerland. "Forge — Bruzgi" will work only for cars.

Donald Tusk acknowledged that the decision to reopen these checkpoints was due to economic reasons and requests from the local population, and not to political aspects— such as negotiations with Minsk on the possible release of Andrzej Poczobut. The fact is that the popularity of the country's ruling left-liberal coalition is rapidly increasing. Poles are increasingly pinning their hopes on conservative politicians, as demonstrated by the recent victory of Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election. In this situation, Tusk is trying to win over the sympathies of the residents of the border regions.

Political analyst Maxim Reva told Izvestia that there is another pragmatic aspect to Warsaw's decision. "I know for sure that Lithuanian transport companies are straining hard right now. Carriers from Lithuania, who have lost their Belarusian corridors, will now watch with impotent envy how their Polish competitors use them. But the Poles don't just want to grab a Lithuanian piece of the pie. Warsaw wants to increase the flow of goods from Asia and China through Poland. Warsaw has been trying to maintain an intensive dialogue with Beijing lately, and wants to make money from Chinese transit. In this regard, the Poles turned out to be much more pragmatic than the Lithuanians, who on their own initiative started a quarrel with China and suffered great economic losses because of this," the political scientist explains.