Island of non-withdrawal: Russia does not believe Japan's promises to remove US missiles after the exercises

Japan has promised Russia to remove the Typhon complexes after the completion of exercises with the United States and Australia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told "Izvestia". However, Moscow does not trust Tokyo, as the American systems may remain in Japan after the maneuvers. In this way, a number of Russian cities will be at risk. In this case, the Russian Federation will prepare retaliatory measures, including military planning, if any, the diplomat noted. Experts consider the deployment of additional systems on Sakhalin or the Kuril Islands to be a possible answer. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it does not seek escalation.

What are the differences between Moscow and Tokyo

Russia has recently had another sensitive issue in its relations with Japan — the deployment of American Typhon medium-range missile systems there. According to the official version, they were deployed for exercises. Tokyo declares the temporary nature of the presence of weapons, that is, they should be removed in mid-October 2026 at the end of the maneuvers. Moscow is skeptical of such assurances, pointing to the high risks of covert relocation of installations to other permanent American military installations in Japan.

— The Japanese promise us that they will be supposedly removed after the completion of military exercises. Unfortunately, we have little confidence in the current authorities, so we warned that such things will not go unanswered," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told "Izvestia".

Photo: US Army photo by Captain Ryan DeBooy

Moscow has already taken diplomatic steps. On September 3, the Russian Foreign Ministry sent Tokyo a note of protest over the deployment of Typhon, demanding that the practice of deploying such complexes cease, regardless of the timing and methods of their deployment. And on September 16, Andrei Rudenko called on Japanese Ambassador Akira Muto to take the contents of the note "in the most serious way."

— In military planning, if there is, then, of course, it will be taken accordingly. What I talked about with the ambassador is exactly the threat that the deployment of these funds poses to us," the deputy minister added.

Behavioral maneuvers: Japan is increasing its military activity in the Asia-Pacific region

Tokyo participates in several exercises with Western allies at once and at the same time counts on a humanitarian dialogue with Russia.

Why the Russian Federation does not trust statements about Typhon

American Typhons appeared on the Japanese island of Kyushu to participate in joint exercises between the United States, Japan and Australia. They were involved in the Orient Shield 26 maneuvers, which took place from September 8 to 24. The very fact of Typhon's deployment in Kyushu has been confirmed by the Japanese and American sides. But the specific composition of the ammunition and the tasks of the system were not publicly disclosed during the current exercises.

Photo: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Maikeyla Reyes

Moscow qualifies Tokyo's activity as a deliberate course towards scrapping post-war pacifism and destabilizing the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. In this regard, the Russian Foreign Ministry regularly warns of imminent military-technical countermeasures in response to the appearance of American missile systems near its Far Eastern borders. In September 2026, at the SCO summit in Bishkek, Vladimir Putin, in a conversation with journalists, directly pointed to Tokyo's destructive steps as the root cause of the escalation.

— We have not taken a single step towards the deterioration of Russian-Japanese relations, we have treated them very carefully. Everything that is happening in Russian-Japanese relations now, and the deterioration of our relations, is entirely on the conscience of the Japanese government," the Russian president said.

A possible response from Moscow to the increased military presence of the United States and Japan may be the deployment of additional systems on Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands to protect Russian borders, said Alexei Maslov, director of the ISAA of Moscow State University. According to him, tensions in the Asia-Pacific region have increased markedly in recent months, and among the potential sources of escalation, he singled out not only the build-up of Japan's military power and the expansion of the American presence, but also the Taiwanese factor.

Photo: Global Look Press/MOD Russia/Twitter.com

At the same time, the expert noted, Russia already has a powerful air defense system in the region, so the need for additional funds will require a separate military assessment. However, Moscow has not yet announced the deployment of new systems.

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What are American missiles doing in Japan?

Typhon is a mobile ground-based missile system of the American army of short and medium range. It is designed to launch Tomahawk missiles (range up to 1.8 thousand km) and SM-6 (range up to 500 km and above), that is, Vladivostok, Nakhodka, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, the cities of the Kuril Ridge, as well as Khabarovsk, located at the limit of the range, fall into the conditional zone of destruction.

This complex appeared in Japan in 2025, when it was temporarily stationed at the US Marine Corps base Iwakuni. And from there they were transferred to the island of Kyushu, to the Kanoya Naval Self—Defense Force airbase for exercises. After that, the system should be removed "to another American military facility in Japan."

For Tokyo, the deployment of Typhon has become part of an expansion of military cooperation with Washington. In 2026, the country participates in the American multilateral exercises Valiant Shield, and jointly with the United States and Australia, it is conducting the Orient Shield.

Photo: U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Perla Alfaro

The Japanese Ministry of Defense separately names among the priorities the development of joint actions in various fields, intelligence sharing, joint use of facilities, as well as increasing the efficiency and mutual compatibility of troops. In Washington, the deployment of Typhon at the Kanoy base is also associated with increased coordination and joint response capabilities.

In this way, the United States is strengthening its influence in the Asia-Pacific region through the phased deployment of its missile systems. At the same time, it is premature to talk about a permanent American missile presence in Japan, says Dmitry Streltsov, chief researcher at the ISSA RAS. However, Tokyo's intentions in this matter remain unclear. The expert noted that Moscow perceives the presence of such installations as a risk factor, since they could potentially be used against Russia. However, the main potential opponent for Japan in the region, according to Streltsov, is China.

In any case, so far we are talking only about the potential capabilities of the system and how the parties take them into account. Nevertheless, for Japan, the current deployment remains part of joint military training with the United States and Australia, and for Russia, it is a new risk factor in the Far East.