Behavioral maneuvers: Japan is increasing its military activity in the Asia-Pacific region

Japan is stepping up its participation in military maneuvers in the Asia-Pacific region. Since September, it has been participating in several multilateral exercises with Australia, the United States, the Philippines and South Korea. Some of these maneuvers with the possible use of long-range weapons have already provoked a harsh reaction in the Russian Foreign Ministry. Moscow has previously warned of increased military activity near Russia's Far Eastern borders. At the same time, Tokyo is counting on dialogue and even intends to resume visa-free trips of its citizens to the Southern Kuril Islands, the Japanese Embassy in the Russian Federation told "Izvestia".

A month of military maneuvers

Since the beginning of autumn, Japan has been conducting a series of exercises with Western allies and other partners in the Asia-Pacific region. In the first weeks of September, maneuvers with the United States and South Korea took place, which became the most complex in the entire history of this trilateral interaction. They combined naval, air, anti-missile and cyber systems. Military personnel from six countries have already been involved in Pacific Vanguard 2026: Australia, Canada and New Zealand have joined. In addition, Japanese forces are conducting bilateral training with Australia, India, Italy and New Zealand.

Tokyo emphasizes that the alliance with Washington remains the foundation of national security.

—The Japan-US alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's foreign and defense policy, as well as the most important pillar of peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region," the Japanese Embassy told Izvestia.

At the same time, Tokyo is betting on expanding the multilateral formats of security cooperation, the diplomatic mission said.

Each of them solves their own tasks. For example, the Japan–USA–Republic of Korea alliance focuses on intelligence sharing, missile defense, and joint response to missile threats — in fact, it is the most powerful group. Japan– the United States, and Australia are joining forces for joint maritime and aviation operations in the western Pacific, and the QUAD, which includes India in addition to these three countries, is expanding cooperation in logistics, maritime security, new technologies, and emergency response.

The most interesting thing is the interaction of Japan, the USA and the Philippines (JAPHUS) — this is the youngest format, and therefore its further potential is not yet so obvious. But experts agree that their cooperation is aimed at tough military and economic deterrence of China.

Samurai of the Depths: Militarization of Japan reaches a new level

The country's Defense Ministry has begun preparing an underwater strike

Threat to Russia's security

The expansion of Tokyo's military cooperation with Washington and other partners does not pose a fundamentally new threat to Russia, but it significantly complicates bilateral relations, says Kirill Koktysh, professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory. According to him, the gradual increase in the compatibility of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces with the armed forces of the Allies is of key importance.

Moscow is closely monitoring Tokyo's military activities. On August 31, Russia protested to Japan over the joint Orient Shield exercises with the United States and Australia on September 8-24, including in Hokkaido. According to the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, Moscow warned Tokyo about the inadmissibility of such military activity near the Far Eastern borders.

The reaction followed the possible use of American Typhon ground-based systems designed to launch medium- and shorter-range missiles during maneuvers. The Japanese side was warned about "compensating countermeasures from Moscow aimed at ensuring an adequate level of national security."

On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov outlined Moscow's broader view of the change in the Japanese military-political course. He said that the current leadership of Japan, unlike the government of Shinzo Abe, expects to ensure national interests "together with the United States by moving away from the post-war principles of the Japanese state."

And two days before that, on August 12, while aboard the cruiser "Varyag", Vladimir Putin announced the growth of conflict potential in the Asia-Pacific region, linking it, among other things, with the creation of new military-political blocs and the deployment of new weapons systems. Pacific Fleet Commander Viktor Liina then reported to the president that "the aggravation of the situation in the fleet's operational area is also confirmed by the increasingly aggressive activities of the Japanese military and political leadership." At the same time, the head of the Russian Federation stressed that Russia does not threaten Japan.

The winner's genetic code: Putin's visit to Iturup was a clear signal to Japan

The Russian president was welcomed at home in the Kuril Islands, while in Tokyo they strongly protested.

Possible dialogue through the humanitarian agenda

In parallel with the strengthening of military cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo is still trying to maintain at least one practical channel of interaction with Moscow. We are talking about visa-free trips of former residents of the Southern Kuril Islands to the graves of relatives.

"In particular, we intend to persistently continue efforts to get the Russian side to resume visits to graves on these islands as soon as possible from a purely humanitarian point of view," the embassy said.

Since 1999, there has been a regime of "free visits" for former residents of the islands and their family members, that is, without a visa. In 2022, Russia suspended the agreement as a response to anti-Russian Western sanctions, which Japan joined. Today, the return of this format can theoretically be considered as one of the first practical steps towards resuming a constructive dialogue. However, this is unlikely as long as Tokyo maintains its sanctions policy against Moscow.

According to Olga Dobrinskaya, a senior researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at the ICSA RAS, a possible compromise on visa-free travel would be an important political signal for Tokyo and would demonstrate Moscow's willingness to maintain a humanitarian dialogue. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that this is not about the right to visit Russian territory as such, but rather about the restoration of a special visa-free regime for former residents of the islands.

Nevertheless, the Japanese side's request to resume trips to the graves of relatives looks particularly contrasting against the background of statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry about the inadmissibility of military activity near the Far Eastern borders. For Moscow, the expansion of Japan's military cooperation with the United States and its allies objectively narrows the space for trust in bilateral relations. In the field of security, Japan is increasingly integrating into the system of interaction between the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region, while simultaneously trying to resume the tracks of interaction with the Russian Federation.

For Russia, this means that the Japanese side does not completely abandon the dialogue, but also does not demonstrate a willingness to separate the humanitarian agenda from the general military-political course. But the ability to maintain such point-to-point contacts in difficult geopolitical conditions is of particular importance for bilateral relations.