Victims of the harvest: humanity is moving towards a global food crisis
The consequences of the heat wave and local armed conflicts began to have a global impact on humanity. Today, key agricultural crops, such as wheat, are becoming more expensive, and their production and export opportunities are declining. Although experts believe that it is premature to talk about global hunger, the combination of climate and geopolitical risks is already creating the prerequisites for a large-scale crisis. Izvestia looked into why the world was on the verge of a new food threat and what it could mean for all of humanity.
Hungry and hot
The autumn of 2026 risks becoming the moment when the accumulated problems of the world food system will move from the category of alarming forecasts to the phase of acute crisis. Natural disasters and armed conflicts in different parts of the world have already provoked a sharp jump in food prices.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index reported that in August, the cost of food increased by 13%, reaching $434, the highest value since 2012. The index tracks the price dynamics of ten key agricultural commodities. Wheat prices rose the most: by the end of August, its quotations increased by more than 16%, and the price of a bushel (27.2 kg) exceeded $7.79 for the first time since 2023. Sugar and cocoa rose in price by about 20%.
The stability of the global food system, according to The New York Times, depends on uninterrupted trade, a stable climate situation and affordable energy resources. None of these conditions are currently being fulfilled. The coincidence of several negative factors increases the risk of further deterioration.
The drought has lowered water levels in the European Union's key waterways, the Rhine and the Danube, making it more difficult to transport food. Currently, ships sailing along these rivers are loaded only by 20% so that they do not run aground.
The strengthening of El Nino continues to have an impact, introducing additional risks for shipping through the Panama Canal. On the eve of the dry season, the local administration limits the daily passage limit to 34 from September 4 and to 32 from September 15.
At the same time, the logistics of food routes is becoming increasingly complicated due to the ongoing armed conflicts. The Black Sea remains a war zone, and ships in the Red Sea are being attacked by the Yemeni Houthis. Carriers have to look for alternative corridors, including around South Africa.
Against the background of the Middle East conflict, energy and fuel prices have increased, as well as the production of carbamide, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, has been disrupted.
European farmers from the Copa-Cogeca association have already warned the European Commission in an official letter: the emerging food crisis is not just a matter of this summer's harvest. According to them, the impending collapse poses direct risks to the economy, agricultural production and food security of the European Union, and can also accelerate inflation. The consequences can be long—term and affect the cost of everyday products, from bread to meat and dairy products.
Among other things, farmers have already started talking about rising meat prices. Insufficient amount of forage harvested for the winter increases the cost of farms for livestock maintenance. In Hungary, hay and pasture feed production decreased by 50%, while in Germany this figure ranges from 30 to 90%, depending on how affected a particular region is. Due to the abnormal heat, the world's largest wheat-producing countries expect the worst grain harvest in the last half century, which means that prices for bakery products will also increase.
It all started here
The starting point of the current food crisis can be marked by the beginning of 2022. At that time, the global economy had not yet fully recovered from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had already led to higher prices for food, fuel and agricultural resources. And to this were added new expenses related to the financing of the Kiev regime.
It is important to take into account that Ukraine is one of the largest producers of cereals and oilseeds in the world. After the start of the conflict, the most productive agricultural regions of the country found themselves in the center of hostilities, and the usual export routes through the Black Sea were disrupted. Wheat, corn, sunflower and other crops have stopped entering the world market in the usual volumes and at the same rate. At that time, the situation was partially mitigated thanks to alternative routes and political agreements, primarily thanks to the "grain deal" between Russia, Ukraine and Turkey.
In 2026, the situation has changed dramatically. Ukraine has launched attacks on Russian ports, fuel infrastructure, transport and ships. Russia was forced to respond in kind. Such a military confrontation affects the entire food production, storage and logistics chain, as well as endangers the destruction of fields and enterprises.
Since the beginning of June, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have damaged about 100 Russian ships in the Black and Azov Seas, and the damage from Kiev's strikes, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, amounted to about 1% of the country's GDP.
The peak of mutual blows occurred at the harvest. The end of summer and the beginning of autumn is the time when the harvested crop must be quickly removed, dried and delivered to the buyer. In the current conditions, it becomes much more difficult to do this.
Moscow has to look for new export corridors, for example through the Baltic, the Caspian Sea and other destinations. At the same time, Kiev, due to Russia's retaliatory strikes on the export terminals in Odessa used for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is also forced to switch to alternative transport routes. Ukraine's situation is further complicated by the shallowing of key European transport rivers, which is why it is necessary to reorient to overland transportation.
The Black Sea factor is only one part of the architecture of the future food shock. The Middle East crisis, which has resulted in restrictions on movement through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as damage to the oil refining infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, can lead to an increase in global fuel prices. For agriculture, this means an increase in the cost of almost all stages — from the operation of machinery and the production of fertilizers to the transportation of products.
In addition, according to the UN, until March 2026, 13% of chemical products, including fertilizers, were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, total shipments decreased by 54%. During the year from April 2025 to April 2026, exports of urea decreased by 83%, methanol by 80%, and ammonia by 75%. The first month of the US-Iran war led to an increase in the cost of fertilizers by about 30-50% due to the blockade of Hormuz and rising gas prices. Energy resources also suffered serious losses. Exports of crude oil decreased by 28 million tons, refined petroleum oils — by 7.3 million tons, and liquefied natural gas — by 5.5 million tons.
That's how it ends.
Experts are already openly talking about a 25-30% increase in the cost of food. Rich countries will feel this primarily through increased budget spending: they have the resources to subsidize the market and offset the rise in import prices. The poor nations of the Global South will face more serious consequences. Dependence on grain, fuel, and fertilizer supplies can quickly lead to shortages, accelerated inflation, reduced food availability, and social instability.
— Today, a paradigm shift is taking place in the global food system: the world's population continues to grow, and the possibilities for expanding agricultural production are close to their limit. It is already difficult to significantly increase yields due to mineral fertilizers, since excessive use of chemicals leads to soil degradation and environmental pollution. At the same time, there is a problem of the impossibility of delivering food raw materials to the food producer. Hence, it turns out that the rise in price of final products leads to a violation of the purchasing power of the population, especially in the countries of the Global South," explains industrial expert Leonid Khazanov to Izvestia.
At the same time, it is not necessary to reduce the current problems with food to any one factor - climate or logistics, emphasizes international commentator Andrey Kuzmak. In a globalized economy, they overlap and have different effects on individual countries.
— In some cases, this leads to a decrease in production, in others - to a reduction in opportunities to export agricultural products, and the rising cost of fuel, fertilizers and transportation further increases pressure on the market. Of course, it's too early to talk about global mass hunger, but a large—scale food crisis accompanied by rising prices and disruption of trade and logistics chains is a very real picture of the near future, the expert says.
The convergence of all conditions at one point leads to what is commonly called a crisis. And the longer external circumstances destabilize the situation in the world, the more severe the consequences will be for all of humanity.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
