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- The secret of the third currency: by 2030, up to 10 trillion rubles may be used for payments in digital rubles.
The secret of the third currency: by 2030, up to 10 trillion rubles may be used for payments in digital rubles.
The volume of payments in digital rubles in retail trade in 2030 may range from 5 trillion to 10 trillion rubles, experts interviewed by Izvestia predicted. However, by the end of 2026, estimates are much lower — tens of billions at most. The third form of the national currency will be launched into mass circulation on September 1. But at first, banks, retailers, and most importantly, people will only test the new tool and get used to it. Why businesses will benefit from the introduction of the digital ruble, how stores will motivate customers to make payments in this particular way, whether banks will increase cashbacks to retain card customers, and why ordinary Russians need all this — in the Izvestia article.
How the digital ruble will work
The mass introduction of the digital ruble in Russia will begin on September 1. According to the law adopted by the State Duma, the largest banks in the payment services market are the first to provide customers with the full range of opportunities — there are 22 such players in the Russian Federation. In these financial institutions, it will be possible to open accounts, make transfers, and pay for purchases and services in the third form of national currency.
The largest retailers should also arrange for payment for purchases in digital rubles. The Central Bank's website clarifies: "Trading companies that are clients of the largest banks and whose revenue over the past year exceeds 120 million rubles will also have to provide the opportunity to pay for goods and services in the digital form of the national currency."
At the same time, small stores, for example, in remote settlements, are not yet required to connect to the system. An exception is also provided for chain outlets with a small turnover of up to 5 million rubles per year.
The use of digital rubles for citizens is purely voluntary, the Central Bank emphasized. For people, all operations with the third form of the national currency will be free of charge. If the SBP currently provides commission-free transfers to other people of up to 100,000 rubles per month, then there will be no such limits in the third form of the national currency.
As the press service of Gazprombank reminded, the launch becomes a logical continuation of the pilot project, which was carried out by the Bank of Russia with the participation of credit institutions since 2023.
The digital ruble is the third form of national currency, along with cash and non—cash rubles. Its difference from cashless is that the funds are not stored in a bank account, but in a wallet in the Central Bank itself. Commercial players provide access to it: that is, through the application of their bank, a person will be able to open an account with the regulator and transfer rubles there from non-cash to digital. The safety of funds in wallets is fully guaranteed by the state (only 1.4 million rubles are insured in commercial banks).
You will be able to open an account in digital rubles directly on your smartphone. The basic functionality for citizens and businesses has already been debugged, the deputy chairman of the board of Dom Bank told Izvestia.Russian Federation" Nikolay Kozak. He said that from September 1, customers will have access to account opening, replenishment and withdrawal of funds, transfers by phone number, auto transfers, QR code payments and government payments. The PSB added: from the same date, legal entities will be able to accept payments in the new currency from individuals, as well as B2B transfers.
— In order for individuals to open an account, they need to give consent through Gosuslugi. If a client uses several banking applications, then you only need to open an account in one, and in the rest you just need to access an existing wallet," the VTB press service said.
The National Payment Card System will act as the technical gateway for paying for purchases at store cashiers — they are already ready for this work, the NSPK told Izvestia. And they clarified that through a universal QR code, the buyer will be able to independently choose an available payment method. No new actions will be added at the store's cash registers.: QR scanning is already familiar to most people.
The new form of money — albeit not immediately — will have another unique advantage for citizens, said independent expert Andrei Barkhota. It is expected that payments will be made without the Internet. Network outages are one of the reasons why demand for cash is growing in 2026. It turns out that the third form of the national currency will take its piece from the share of cash.
Benefits for retail
Since the beginning of autumn, the duty to accept digital rubles has fallen on large businesses, and all major federal players fall within the perimeter: grocery and pharmacy chains, digital platforms, and others, Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the Association of Retail Companies, told Izvestia.
— Large federal retail chains are responsible for ensuring that their stores are ready to receive digital rubles on time. In parallel, market participants can carry out testing and additional adjustments," he noted.
The networks will not have to purchase new hardware, they only need to modernize and rewire existing terminals, Andrei Barkhota added. And business is interested in this, as it becomes the main beneficiary of innovation.
— By the end of the year, a zero tariff has been set for accepting payments in digital rubles, and in 2027 it will amount to 0.3% of the payment amount. This is several times less than traditional card acquiring and even lower than most SBP tariffs," said Artyom Sokolov, President of the Association of Online Trading Companies (AKIT).
Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, predicted that business savings on commissions could amount to 40-150 billion rubles per year compared to traditional acquiring — a good motivation for stores to lure customers to this particular payment method. Possible attraction tools are direct discounts, increased cashback due to the retailer's own programs, and special promotions. A similar situation occurred a few years ago with SBP, when the retailer tried to sell this particular payment option to customers.
How banks will retain customers
But the new tool has yet to gain people's trust, and for now it is being treated rather skeptically and even with caution. People are afraid that the third form of national currency will become mandatory and will turn out to be a control tool.
— There will be no large-scale transfer of money into digital rubles until the end of 2026. So far, we are talking more about pilot, trial operations — the turnover volume may amount to tens, at best hundreds of billions of rubles, — Denis Astafyev expects.
However, by 2030, the volume of transactions in this form of national currency may already occupy a significant share - 3-5% of all transactions of individuals, says Mikhail Khachaturian, associate professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development of the Financial University. Retail trade turnover in 2025 exceeded 60 trillion rubles, and it is growing by about 10% per year. If we assume that by 2030-2040 the turnover will increase to 100 trillion, then the volume of transactions in digital rubles will be about 5 trillion.
Denis Astafyev gives a similar assessment: according to his forecasts, by 2030, from 4 trillion to 10 trillion rubles will flow into operations with the digital ruble, depending on the popularity of the mechanism and the services that will be implemented on its basis.
It is worth noting that digital ruble wallets are located on the Bank of Russia platform, meaning commercial financial organizations cannot account for these funds as assets and, for example, use them to issue loans.
"For the banking sector, the key risk lies not in a one—time liquidity crisis, but in a gradual compression of the cheap customer base and a decrease in commission income," the expert concluded.
However, the Central Bank has provided a mechanism so that too many funds do not flow into the digital wallet at the same time, said Elena Pevtsova, head of the Digital Ruble project at UBRiR Bank. The regulator has introduced a limit on replenishment of the wallet — no more than 300 thousand rubles per month. And the lack of interest on the balance or the inability to lend in digital rubles will be an argument to keep regular accounts. To retain customers, banks will compete more actively: raise deposit rates, strengthen loyalty programs, and develop bonus mechanics.
The deadline has been shifted for banks that are not on the list of systemically important ones. For example, Zenit Bank and OTP Bank reported that they are required to implement digital rubles starting from September 1, 2027.
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