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- Supplies on pause: offshore oil exports from the Russian Federation dropped to an annual minimum
Supplies on pause: offshore oil exports from the Russian Federation dropped to an annual minimum
The effect on the Russian budget from a decrease in offshore oil exports will be insignificant — it will be offset by rising world prices for this fuel and the ruble exchange rate, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Earlier, analysts reported that Russian oil supplies abroad through ports have been declining for the fifth week in a row. According to Bloomberg, in the period from July 20 to August 16, this figure averaged 3.58 million barrels per day. And on August 22, according to the analytical company Kpler, it dropped to a minimum since the beginning of the year — 2.94 million barrels. What is the reason for such a drop, what impact it will have on the global oil market and the Russian budget — in the material of Izvestia.
Why have shipments decreased by sea
Russian oil shipments by sea have been declining for the fifth week in a row, Bloomberg reported. From July 20 to August 16, Russia exported an average of 3.58 million barrels of oil per day through seaports, according to the agency's calculations. This is 14.8% less than in the previous four weeks from June 22 to July 19. The last time Russia exported such volumes of oil by sea was in April of this year.
And according to the analytical company Kpler, on August 22, this figure was already 2.94 million barrels. Russia supplied less by sea only in December last year (2.91 million bpd), when the European Union and the G7 began to apply the ceiling on oil prices as sanctions. Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation and major oil companies.
However, even against the background of the current recession, the volume of Russian crude oil exports by sea remains relatively high, Bloomberg notes.
The decline in Russian offshore oil exports in recent weeks is primarily due to damage to the port infrastructure, rather than a structural reduction in supply, said Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company. In particular, we are talking about facilities in Novorossiysk, which were attacked by Ukrainian UAVs.
Dmitry Scriabin noted that such drawdowns in export volumes had already happened, for example, after the October 2025 sanctions, but each time they were replaced by volume recovery through logistics reconfiguration. And now some of the flows are being redirected from the Black Sea to the Baltic.
The geography of Russia's exports continues to shift to Asia, the expert notes. India is a record buyer of Russian oil, importing about 2.7 million barrels per day, while China also increased oil imports in July, including from Russia.
Kirill Rodionov, an independent energy expert, explained that the geography of Russian oil supplies has been generally stable over the past four years, after the EU embargo came into force. Over the past few years, Russian crude oil supplies to China and India have often accounted for about 80% of total exports. Singapore has also recently accounted for a significant portion of shipments from Russia's Far Eastern ports.
— Russian oil often gets to India from ports in the European part of Russia through third countries, for example, through Egypt. The role of transit countries will grow in the coming months. This is due to logistical risks for the fleet transporting Russian oil, as well as India's desire to comply with global sanctions conditions, Kirill Rodionov believes.
According to Dmitry Scriabin, the decline in Russian offshore oil exports has so far had a limited effect on the global balance.
"Since the falling volumes themselves are small for the global market, prices will depend more on the decisions of OPEC+, China and the situation with the Middle East conflict," he believes.
Impact on the Russian budget
The price of the Russian Urals oil brand is traditionally determined based on Brent oil quotes, taking into account the discount, as well as logistical costs and delivery conditions. Russian oil remains attractive to buyers subject to a discount on Urals at about $25 per barrel, taking into account logistical costs and sanctions risks, Dmitry Scriabin believes. With limited supply on the global market due to the unstable situation in the Strait of Hormuz, consumers do not have many alternatives to Russian supplies.
As Kirill Rodionov notes, payments by oil companies for the mineral extraction tax (MET) depend on the volume of production and price dynamics in the ports of Novorossiysk, Kozmino and Primorsk. Thus, damage to the port infrastructure in the Black Sea will restrain the dynamics of the price of Russian oil, which is taken into account in taxation, and thereby restrain the dynamics of revenues to the Russian budget.
According to the expert, the decline in export opportunities, as well as the current restrictions on the operation of refineries, may affect the level of oil production in the Russian Federation, which will also have a negative effect on the amount of tax revenues. He expects production volumes to remain at the July level in September. According to a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in July 2026, Russia reduced oil production by 6,000 barrels per day compared to June, to 8,887 million barrels.
At the same time, Dmitry Scriabin believes that the effect of damage to seaports and a decrease in oil exports on budget revenues will be insignificant, as it will be offset by other factors.
—The Urals price is important for Russian companies and budget revenues, as well as the ruble exchange rate — a weaker ruble, all other things being equal, increases budget revenues and sector companies," the expert explained.
In his opinion, these two parameters largely offset the effect of changes in supply volumes.
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