Seven times OPEC+: why the alliance raised oil production quotas again

At a meeting on August 2, seven OPEC+ countries decided to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in September. Over the course of several months, countries have been gradually increasing volumes as part of the withdrawal from the voluntary restrictions they imposed in 2023, and will complete this process in September. Experts believe that oil producers can continue to increase quotas in small amounts on a monthly basis in order to be able to contain panic in the market. What the alliance's next decision might be is in the Izvestia article.

What OPEC+ countries decided at the August 2 meeting

Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman (OPEC+ countries that imposed voluntary production restrictions in 2023) decided at a meeting on Sunday to increase the permitted volume of oil production in September by 188 thousand barrels per day from August levels.

In September, the largest increase in oil production was allocated to Russia and Saudi Arabia - 62 thousand barrels per day. Thus, Russia can increase the production of black gold to 9.949 million barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia - to 10.478 million. Iraq ranks third in terms of permitted oil production in September, with up to 4.431 million barrels per day.

For several months, some OPEC+ countries, including the United Arab Emirates, have been gradually increasing quotas until May this year. The countries increased production in order to return to the market the volumes of oil that had been reduced earlier under the second stage of voluntary restrictions on oil production by a total of 1.65 million barrels per day. Thanks to the decision taken on Sunday, the countries will complete the process in September and return these volumes to the market.

The first stage of such voluntary cuts in oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day was "closed" in September 2025.

Earlier in June, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak explained that the increase in oil production quotas by OPEC+ countries, when most of them are actually unable to increase production due to the Middle East conflict, gives states that previously exceeded quotas the opportunity to accelerate the compensation of these volumes.

He added that by the end of 2026, Russia expects to achieve full oil production planned under OPEC+ quotas. So far, the Russian Federation has reduced production volumes, but it will restore it after the refineries come out of repairs, Novak explained.

The Deputy Prime Minister also noted that calculations of Russia's maximum production capacity under the OPEC+ deal, which will be the main one for determining quotas for 2027, will be ready by the end of this year on time.

According to the alliance, the seven OPEC+ countries will continue to hold monthly meetings to analyze the market situation, and the next meeting will be held on September 6.

Also, on August 2, a meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee took place, which traditionally does not make decisions on quotas of participants, but can recommend them to change their policy. However, no new recommendations were adopted at this meeting. The next meeting of the monitoring committee is scheduled for October 4.

OPEC's future plan+

After September, OPEC+ is likely to suspend production growth until the end of the year, Reuters previously reported, citing sources in the alliance. The agency's interlocutors cited the need for additional consultations before setting new targets for 2027 as the reason.

At the same time, as noted by Reuters, the actual production growth turned out to be significantly lower than the approved quotas. The reason was disruptions in oil exports caused by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which affected supplies from the Persian Gulf countries, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan.

According to Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, countries can continue to increase oil production quotas for all OPEC+ countries, but in minimal amounts. The alliance's strategy is to increase the limit on oil production to such an extent that quotas actually stop limiting countries. Thus, they will be able to produce crude oil in any quantity, and only real production capabilities will be a limitation for production.

This strategy will allow the alliance to contain the panic in the stock market and the volatility of oil prices, the expert explains.

Oil prices have been very volatile over the past few months amid the conflict between the United States and Iran. The price of Brent has increased from $72 to $100 per barrel since the beginning of July. Then, against the background of another truce between the United States and Iran, prices dropped sharply from $98 to $83 in a couple of days. On August 1, the price per barrel of Brent was $89.

According to Igor Yushkov, OPEC countries, due to the high level of permitted oil production, will be able to compete more actively with countries outside the alliance. At the same time, the format of the agreement itself will remain in place in case it is necessary to lower production quotas again.

The expert notes that due to the conflict in the Middle East, production quotas for many OPEC+ member countries do not play a role yet, since their oil production capabilities are limited by military operations and lack of exports. However, despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the alliance's strategy remains unchanged, Igor Yushkov believes.

Kirill Rodionov, an independent energy expert, also believes that countries can continue to increase their oil production quotas by about 200-230 thousand barrels per day on a monthly basis. Currently, the actual oil production of Middle Eastern countries is significantly lower than the planned quotas of the alliance. However, the market understands that after the stabilization of the military conflict and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, these states will increase oil production to compensate for losses. Now an increase in quotas is necessary so that the subsequent sharp increase in supply does not destabilize the oil market.