Iran the terrible: how Washington's economic war with Tehran will turn out
Increased US restrictions against Iran could trigger disruptions to fuel supplies in Europe and Asia, experts warn. The United States has decided to tighten the sanctions screws to the limit, but it risks triggering a new round of energy crisis on its own. Washington intends to block Tehran's oil, financial and logistical channels to circumvent restrictions, and in response, Tehran may restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. The consequences of such an escalation will quickly spread beyond the Middle East: fuel shortages and price spikes will affect the United States, and expensive gasoline can add to Donald Trump's problems before the election. How the conflict in the Middle East threatens global stability — in the Izvestia article.
How does the United States threaten Iran
The conflict between the United States and Iran is taking on a new form. Previously, the main threat seemed to be military escalation: Donald Trump promised to "bomb the country to hell." However, Tehran is still not ready to capitulate, and Washington has decided to increase economic pressure on the Iranian economy. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the new campaign will begin on Monday, August 24.
"We are entering the final stage. At dawn, the economic "D—Day" will begin - the largest financial attack ever carried out against an enemy," the minister wrote in an article published by the Financial Times.
He added that countries that sever their remaining trade ties with Iran will strengthen their own positions. On the contrary, States that continue to cooperate with the Islamic Republic should be ready to share its isolation. Washington's main goal is to block the channels through which Tehran previously circumvented restrictions.
Possible measures include sanctions against tankers of the so-called shadow fleet, restrictions on ports and intermediaries involved in oil barter, as well as increased control over cash payments, crypto assets, exchange networks and intermediary firms. Not only Iranian structures may be affected, but also foreign oil buyers, banks, exchange offices, shipowners, insurers and intermediary companies in Pakistan, Turkey and Arab countries, Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics and the Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained to Izvestia.
The UAE has already announced the suspension of trade and financial transactions with Iran. However, there are still many small companies in the region that help circumvent restrictions and may become the main target of the American campaign. At the same time, Washington is unlikely to be able to completely block the channels of circumvention of sanctions that Iran has been building since 1979, says international political scientist Elena Suponina. The United States does not have enough resources to control all financial flows. Much will depend on the position of China, Iran's key economic partner, said Farhad Ibrahimov. If Beijing does not join the US pressure, Tehran will retain part of its oil exports, although it will be forced to sell raw materials at high discounts and incur high logistical costs.
How can Iran respond
The new restrictions will be painful for the Iranian economy. The country is entering the next sanctions cycle in a weakened state: The IMF forecasts a 5.5% reduction in GDP, average inflation is about 70%, and food inflation is 128%. The national currency has fallen to a historic low, exceeding 2 million rials per dollar. If the United States can significantly reduce Iranian oil exports and make it difficult to return foreign exchange earnings, this will lead to further depreciation of the rial, higher import prices, higher inflation and shortages of goods.
The most painful for Tehran will be the risk that large banks and trading structures of third countries, including Turkey and Pakistan, will cease operations with Iran due to fears of secondary sanctions, Farhad Ibrahimov believes. In response to the increased pressure, the Islamic Republic may take tougher measures.
The Iranian authorities have declared their readiness to completely stop oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries. The main lever of pressure remains the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea outlet from the Gulf to world markets. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates export oil through it. Over the weekend, just under 20 vessels crossed the strait, Reuters reported, citing data from Kpler. Before the escalation at the end of February, more than 100 ships passed through Hormuz every day. The complete blocking of the strait can cause a new energy crisis, Elena Suponina believes.
This could lead to fuel shortages and a new spike in prices in Europe and Asia. On the morning of August 24, Brent crude oil was trading at $93.08 per barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. It has risen in price by more than 5% in a week. Experts admit that with a new supply failure — for example, with a complete lockdown of Hormuz — prices may exceed $100 per barrel. Such an escalation can indeed lead to a new global energy crisis, agrees Farhad Ibragimov.
At the same time, rising oil prices will also hit the United States: gasoline will rise in price after it. On the eve of the congressional elections in November 2026, even a slight price increase can lower the ratings of the Republican Party and Donald Trump personally. To stop oil shipments, Iran would have to physically obstruct shipping, delay tankers, or attack maritime infrastructure.
In this case, the economic confrontation will quickly escalate into a military one. This will increase the risk of a direct clash and destabilization of the entire Persian Gulf. In these circumstances, it is premature to talk about an early truce. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the republic does not intend to accept the conditions proposed by the United States. The conflict is likely to escalate in the near future.
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