E — this is pressure: who is the target of the unprecedented US campaign
Donald Trump has threatened the whole world with serious economic consequences for helping Iran: the US president announced an "unprecedented" pressure campaign on Tehran, saying it would be an economic "D-Day." They have already accused Washington of economic terrorism. First of all, this may affect China and the Russian Federation, which are key partners of the Islamic Republic. At the same time, experts warn that the expansion of secondary sanctions could create problems for the United States itself, especially due to its dependence on Chinese supplies of rare earth metals. An additional instrument of pressure may be a bill on duties against countries that purchase Russian raw materials. However, the new restrictions will not fundamentally change the trade.
Economic pressure on Iran
While the US-Iranian conflict is stuck on the brink of war and peace, the United States has decided to be the first to move to open escalation, only this time economically. Trump announced "unprecedented" economic pressure on Tehran. Moreover, he called on partners to join the campaign and stop operations related to Iranian oil, financial transfers and the work of intermediaries.
"This will become an economic D—Day, and we need all our allies to side with the United States in order to isolate and defeat the Iranian threat," the US president said, comparing the start of a new pressure campaign to D—Day, the Allied landings in Normandy on June 6, 1944.
In Iran, the new threats were immediately classified as "economic terrorism." Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stressed that Washington's policy would certainly not lead to a change in Tehran's position. For their part, the Iranian authorities continue to publicly demonstrate their willingness to negotiate, although they are still not considering any unilateral concessions.
At the same time, Trump emphasizes that he did everything possible, and it was Iran that rejected the deal. It is difficult to say who exactly is sabotaging the settlement, but the parties' attempts to reach an agreement have indeed failed. The memorandum, signed in mid-June, expired on August 17. At the same time, the document itself ceased to be valid much earlier — on July 7, when Washington accused Tehran of violating its provisions and began to strike at the country's territory.
However, despite the resumption of hostilities, the diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran remained. The parties continued technical consultations, but nothing could be agreed by the deadline. It is noteworthy that even within the American administration, there were different assessments of the progress of the negotiations. Special Envoy of the US President Jared Kushner stated that contacts with the Iranian side are continuing and have become "probably more intense than ever." However, the very next day, on August 18, Trump announced that no negotiations with Tehran were underway or planned.
In any case, Washington's statements about large-scale economic pressure on Iran are unlikely to lead to the desired result for the United States, says Boris Martynov, professor of the Department of International Relations and Russian Foreign Policy at MGIMO. According to him, Trump "drove himself into a trap" because he initially underestimated Iran's capabilities and overestimated the effectiveness of forceful pressure.
Tehran retains the ability to maintain external relations, including through neighboring countries, and also has allies in the region. According to Martynov, this is also why an attempt to strengthen the economic blockade will not allow Washington to achieve its goals.
Nevertheless, this time Trump went further. He stated that any state, financial institution or company that helps Iran will face "huge economic consequences." The US president did not name specific countries, but it was probably about China and Russia.
How serious are Washington's threats
In the event of a transition from threats to concrete measures, China will become the main test for Washington. The United States remains dependent on the supply of critical materials, in which the Chinese dominate the market. Rare earth metals purchased by the United States are used in the manufacture of electronics, electric vehicles, batteries, high-precision equipment and defense products. Despite attempts to diversify supply chains, Beijing retains a particularly strong position in the processing of such raw materials. If secondary sanctions are imposed, Washington may face serious consequences, Martynov stressed.
For Russia, Trump's new threats also carry some risks, according to economist Viktor Mangazeev. According to him, the restrictions may affect not only our companies, but also banks, carriers, insurers and intermediaries from countries that continue to work simultaneously with Moscow and Tehran. All this can complicate calculations and logistics, increase transportation costs and the costs of exporters.
At the same time, the risks are still higher for Beijing, since Chinese refineries process the most significant volumes of Iranian oil, the expert noted. For Moscow, the consequences will be rather indirect — through increased control over payments and logistics chains that intersect with Iranian routes.
According to Mangazeev, the possible adoption of the bill of the late Lindsey Graham (included in the list of extremists and terrorists of Rosfinmonitoring), which, after approval by the Senate, will have to be considered by the House of Representatives, should not radically change the situation. The document provides for duties on Russian goods and on products of the largest buyers of oil and gas from the Russian Federation in the amount of 100%. However, the US president will be able to adjust secondary duties and make exceptions based on the national interests of the country, so his adoption is rather a sword of Damocles. In addition, the experience of pressure on India shows that such measures, although they can reduce purchases of Russian raw materials, will not necessarily lead to their cessation: after a drop in imports at the end of 2025, supplies reached record levels again in the summer of 2026, the expert recalled.
In addition, Russia has already created the infrastructure to work under sanctions — payments in national currencies, alternative logistics routes, the economist explained. Therefore, the new restrictions are likely to increase the cost and complexity of transactions, but they will not stop trading on their own.
As a result, the further development of the situation with Iran will depend on Washington's willingness to make even greater economic sacrifices in the face of high oil prices. If Trump does decide to impose unilateral restrictions, American taxpayers will feel it first of all.
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