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- Square master: ready-made housing began to rise sharply against the background of a decrease in key
Square master: ready-made housing began to rise sharply against the background of a decrease in key
The growth rate of prices for secondary housing turned out to be five times higher than for primary housing. If the square meter in new buildings in the first quarter of 2026 rose in price by 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, then in ready-made housing — by 10.4%, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. Lower mortgage rates have led to an outflow of demand from the new building market. Secondary housing may become more expensive due to expectations of stricter family mortgage conditions, which can cut off many Russians from the program. Is it worth buying an apartment now or is it better to wait for the price reduction — in the Izvestia article.
How much will ready-made apartments become more expensive
According to the results of the first quarter of 2026, the average price per square meter in the secondary market increased by 10.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 and reached 144 thousand rubles, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. Such real estate rose in price five times faster than new buildings: there, the average cost per meter increased by only 2% and reached 219.5 thousand rubles.
Previously, the trend was reversed: the price of new buildings grew faster. From the first to the fourth quarter of 2025, ready-made housing rose in price by only 3%, while new housing rose by 8.7%, according to the regulator. However, the situation changed in 2026.
Compared to July last year, demand in the primary housing market in Russia decreased by 17%, while in the secondary, on the contrary, increased by 45%, said Alexander Ivanov, a leading analyst at the federal company Floors.
The growth in the number of transactions is also confirmed by Roskadaster data. In the first half of 2026, 699.8 thousand ready-made apartments were sold in Russia, which is 21% more than a year earlier, said Valery Tumin, director of Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties.
Demand for secondary housing continues to grow now, and this is gradually accelerating prices for it, said Finam analyst Kristina Gudym. According to her, the mortgage market is recovering amid a decline in the key rate. The share of market programs in the total volume of disbursements increased from 19% to 37%, with the main increase coming from secondary housing.
At the same time, the drop in the key rate has so far had almost no effect on the value of the market mortgage. Despite its reduction by the Central Bank from 16% to 14% since the beginning of the year, the rates of credit institutions remain in the range of 18-19%, noted Valery Tumin. According to him, the regulator's policy so far affects the market more through sentiment and expectations than through a real change in the monthly payment. For many buyers, the incentive to make a deal is confidence in the continuation of the rate reduction cycle.
Why Russians choose ready-made housing
The secondary market remains attractive primarily because of cheaper housing. By the end of 2025, the price gap in the primary and secondary markets in the Central Federal District reached 90%, Izvestia previously wrote. At the same time, it was 65% in Russia as a whole.
This gap, along with a gradual reduction in interest rates and the possibility of refinancing an expensive loan in the future, increases the interest of Russians in ready-made apartments, said Alexander Ivanov from the Floors company.
Secondary real estate is really at the peak of demand right now, and this trend is likely not to change in the coming year, says Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company. The main advantage of ready—made housing is the ability to use the apartment immediately, whereas when buying a new building, the owner often has to wait for the house to be delivered and additionally invest in repairs.
At the same time, the segment of "new secondary" — apartments in houses no older than five years — is close to new buildings in quality, but it costs significantly less, Valery Tumin added. The difference in price between new, but already secondary, and old apartments reaches 19.6% in Moscow, 12% in Krasnodar, 11% in Ufa, 9% in Voronezh and Novosibirsk.
How will the change in the family mortgage affect demand
The rise in prices for ready-made housing may accelerate against the background of the expected tightening of family mortgage conditions. Currently, preferential loans under the program are available at a rate of 6%, but starting from October 1, 2026, its conditions may deteriorate significantly, said Evgeny Shavnev. At the same time, preferential programs remain one of the main sources of demand in the new building market.
One of the proposals being discussed is to link the family mortgage rate to the number of children. For a family with one child, it can be up to 12% in Moscow, while conditions for large families are being discussed at the level of 4%. At the same time, only the first 15 years of the loan will be able to maintain the preferential rate.
Such a tightening can further redirect demand to the secondary market, especially from families with one child, Valery Tumin believes. For some borrowers, buying a ready-made apartment according to market conditions may be more attractive than buying a new building at a higher price, but at a rate only slightly lower and with subsequent repair costs.
Families with one child may begin to choose the secondary market more often, since an increase in the family program rate to 9-10% or higher will no longer differ so much from market conditions, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
However, the final parameters of the family mortgage have not yet been determined. Government representatives have already expressed dissatisfaction with the changes being discussed, so the final decision may differ from previous discussions, Valery Tumin noted.
Is it worth rushing to buy ready-made housing
In the coming months, secondary housing will continue to rise in price by about 0.5–1.5% per month against 0.3–0.5% in the primary market, predicts Valery Tumin from Pham Properties. According to him, this is due to the steady demand. It is also evidenced by the reduction in the time during which ready-made apartments at a favorable price remain available for purchase.
In Moscow, the deadline for the sale of such facilities has already dropped to about 90 days, said Valery Tumin. This indicates a shortage of supply, which is unlikely to disappear in the near future. Therefore, for buyers who are already ready to make a deal, waiting may result in a higher price.
Buying a secondary property now can be beneficial for those who expect to repay the loan quickly or reissue it at a lower rate in the future, says Alexander Ivanov from the Floors company. As demand increases, discounts on ready—made housing will decrease, and prices will increase. Because of this, the monthly mortgage payment for the same property may increase in a year or two.
However, there are arguments in favor of waiting. Market mortgages are still expensive: rates are at the level of 18-19% even after the key reduction, noted Valery Tumin. Therefore, it may be wiser for borrowers who are completely dependent on a loan to wait for a real reduction in bank interest rates, rather than relying only on further movement of the key.
However, the Central Bank will have to wait a long time for a significant rate cut, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. By the end of 2026, it will fall only to 13-13.5%, and mortgages will fall in price by only 2-3 percentage points. Therefore, according to the expert, it is not worth waiting long for its further decrease — high-quality and inexpensive housing on the secondary market can be bought now.
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