Empty walls: developers cannot sell 45% of apartments in new buildings
Developers are increasing the construction area at a record pace against the background of extremely low apartment sales. Currently, only 55% of apartments have been purchased in those houses that will be completed by the end of 2026, according to a study by the <url> project. The situation is worst in Krasnodar, Chelyabinsk, Voronezh and Omsk. Many developers, launching new projects, shift the losses of current construction projects onto them, experts say. In their opinion, this may lead to the bankruptcy of a number of local players, but in general the industry is able to overcome the crisis. In those regions where overproduction is very high, the pace of construction is already decreasing, and next year this figure will decrease across the country, analysts predict.
There are more and more unsold apartments
The percentage of home sales in Russia has fallen to a record low. By the end of July, on average, only 55% of apartments in those buildings that are planned to be commissioned by the end of this year were sold in the country. These data are presented in the study of the real estate project "Movement" based on the data of the EISZHS for cities with a population of one million. And although analysts predict that 60% of apartments will be bought by the end of the year, the figure of 40% of housing that will not find buyers will still be a record high.
— These 40% of empty premises in houses that have already been commissioned will be a heavy burden on developers — they need to be maintained, they need to be sold somehow. And selling outside of preferential mortgage programs is quite problematic, since market mortgage conditions are still restrictive," the head of the Movement analytical center said in an interview with Izvestia.<url>" by Yan Gravshin.
According to a study (Izvestia has it), the most unfavorable situation has developed in Krasnodar. Only 34% of apartments in new buildings with a high degree of readiness have been sold there. In Chelyabinsk, this figure is 37%, in Omsk — 43%, in Voronezh — 46%.
Sales are best in Moscow — 70%, Rostov-on-Don - 63%, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk and Perm — 62% each.
Despite these figures, developers continue to increase the construction area. In the middle of summer, it exceeded the mark of 120.2 million square meters. meters. If growth continues, the volume of current construction will reach its highest level in the entire history of observations in the autumn — more than 121 million square meters, the authors of the study predict.
— The record growth of space against the background of low demand for housing is a consequence of the inertia of the construction market, — says Yan Gravshin.
He recalled that this year the positive dynamics of new project launches continued, and at the beginning of the year it was the highest for all time. As Izvestia wrote in March, the increase was 52% compared to 2025.
— These are projects that started two or even three years ago, but the space is naturally accumulating. We expect that next year there will be a reduction in construction volumes, because all means of stimulating consumer demand have now been virtually exhausted," believes Yan Gravshin.
At the same time, the dynamics of construction growth is also ambiguous. Omsk turned out to be the leaders here — 23.8% and Chelyabinsk — 20.7%. In Krasnodar, which has the most unsold housing, construction areas increased by 9.7% year-on-year.
Construction volumes have decreased in a number of million-plus cities. Most significantly in Voronezh — by 21.3%, Tyumen — 16%, Samara — 15% and Moscow — 11.4%. However, according to experts, there is also a disadvantage to this. For example, in Moscow and St. Petersburg, a reduction in construction volumes while maintaining demand for housing "may in the future threaten a shortage of liquid, high-quality supply, as well as put pressure on prices," the study notes.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Construction with a request to comment on the situation in the construction market.
What risks does the situation pose for developers?
The relevant committee of the State Duma believes that the situation in the housing construction market is controlled.
— There are no obvious prerequisites for the bankruptcy of developers, and talk about a repeat of the Chinese scenario is absolutely groundless. We have a different market model. Moreover, the mechanism of project financing through escrow accounts reliably protects both shareholders and the system itself. Banks are required to reserve funds for the completion of facilities, even if sales are suspended," Vladimir Koshelev, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing and Communal Services, told Izvestia.
According to him, the record volume of construction should be considered primarily as a powerful foundation for meeting national development goals. It shows that construction and related industries are not worth it, but are working at full capacity.
— To implement a project that will make the purchase of housing truly affordable for millions of citizens, it is enough just to change the regulations of the Central Bank so that it can issue cheap loans to commercial banks at 2% per annum secured by such portfolios. And commercial banks, adding no more than 3% per annum on top, will issue mortgages to Russian citizens at 5% per annum," the deputy said.
The construction business evaluates the situation a little differently.
— There is indeed a serious imbalance of supply and demand in the new building market. Nationwide, the number of starts has increased, despite a decrease in the activity of equity holders," said Dmitry Proskurin, Commercial Director of Metrium. — Today, the overstocking of primary housing, that is, the excess of the number of starts over the volume of sales, is observed in 74 regions of the Russian Federation. However, the situation in most regions is still not critical. The market is able to absorb the current exposure volumes in a short time, if the Central Bank continues its policy of progressive monetary policy easing.
According to the expert, there are no prerequisites for massive bankruptcies of developers. But the volume of new building starts can really seriously decrease if the authorities maintain their policy of tightening preferential mortgage programs, and the key interest rate reaches a prolonged plateau.
The high level of unsold new buildings in Russia is due not so much to low demand as to the record level of construction in 2023-2024, when there was a maximum level of new project launches, Rustam Khamdamov, sales director of the Talan development company, told Izvestia. According to him, that is why demand today cannot keep up with the increased supply.
Izvestia sent requests to the largest developers asking them to comment on the situation on the housing market in Russia.
What is the threat of low sales
— At the time of the cancellation of the preferential mortgage, the sale rate was above 80%. And reducing sales is now a natural process that cannot be denied. Moreover, in this case, we use data on areas that developers have already put up for sale. However, according to our data, about 24% of the housing under construction has not yet been put on sale," explained Sergey Razuvaev, founder of GMK, co—founder of the Association of Real Estate Market Professionals REPA, to Izvestia.
According to the expert, the current situation affects the financial situation of developers, many of them have lost the airbag they accumulated in 2021-2023.
— Many developers on the sidelines declare that in fact, when they open new projects, they shift the losses of current construction projects onto them. If they didn't do this, it would be difficult for them to hide these losses. And banks that support the opening of new projects, in principle, adhere to the same logic," says Sergey Razuvaev.
In his opinion, bankruptcy of some local market players is possible, but if there are no shocks, the industry will get out of this crisis, because in those regions where overproduction is very high, the pace of construction is decreasing.
According to the analytical service "Contour.Focus", the number of bankruptcy cases initiated against Russian construction companies in the first half of 2026 increased by 37% compared to the same period last year to almost 1.1 thousand. Over the past year, just over 1.8 thousand such cases were opened in the industry.
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