The IEA predicted an increase in the shortage of oil supply due to the war in Iran

According to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the shortage of oil on the world market in the current quarter will more than double compared to the previous estimate due to the resumption of hostilities in Iran. This was reported by Bloomberg on August 12.

"The oil market will face a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day, as the resumption of hostilities and disruptions in maritime transportation undermine the recovery of production," the material says.

The IEA has also almost halved its forecast for a decline in global oil demand in 2026 to 1.6 million barrels per day. This will be the largest annual decline in demand since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At the same time, global oil reserves are declining due to supply disruptions and increased fuel consumption, the article notes.

Seven times OPEC+: why the alliance raised oil production quotas again

And what decision can the participating countries make at the next meeting?

Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, told Izvestia on August 10 that the oil market in August 2026 remains under the influence of several factors at once: on the one hand, fundamental indicators put pressure on quotations, on the other, geopolitical tensions keep prices at a high level. According to him, Brent oil may be in the range of $85-95 per barrel by the end of the year.