The expert assessed the prospects for oil prices by the end of this year

The oil market in August 2026 remains influenced by several factors at once. On the one hand, fundamental indicators put pressure on quotes, on the other, geopolitical tensions keep prices at a high level. Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, told Izvestia about the current situation on August 10.

He clarified that at the moment Brent crude oil is trading slightly above $84 per barrel. According to the expert, one of the main reasons for maintaining high prices remains the uncertainty surrounding the situation with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key oil supply routes in the world.

"Iran reports progress in coordinating the ship traffic management system with Oman, but at the same time it puts forward additional conditions, including those related to the US position. Additional tension in the market is created by reports of attacks on energy facilities in the region. Investors continue to take into account the risk of possible supply disruptions, so even partial signs of stabilization of the situation do not completely eliminate concerns," said Rastorguev.

At the same time, the fundamental picture of the oil market looks ambiguous. According to forecasts by international energy organizations, in 2026 the market may face a supply shortage of about 0.9 million barrels per day. The growth of production in the United States and Latin America, according to the analyst, does not fully compensate for the reduction in supplies from other regions.

At the same time, the growth rate of global oil demand is slowing due to increased energy efficiency and the gradual spread of electric vehicles in developed countries. An additional factor of stability is the accumulated commercial oil reserves, which partially compensate for short-term disruptions.

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And what decision can the participating countries make at the next meeting?

"It turns out to be a difficult situation: a shortage of supply supports prices, but a high level of stocks does not allow the market to go up sharply. Further dynamics will depend on the development of several scenarios. With a gradual reduction in geopolitical risks and continued supply shortages, Brent crude may be in the range of $85-95 per barrel by the end of the year," said Rastorguev.

With increased confrontation and new problems with transport routes, prices may exceed the $100 per barrel mark. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz is resolved quickly, a correction is possible, but a return to significantly lower levels will require time to restore logistics and infrastructure.

Oil dynamics is of particular importance for the Russian economy, the expert added. Changes in raw material prices directly affect oil and gas budget revenues and the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, the price of Russian Urals oil continues to be under pressure due to sanctions restrictions, difficulties with transportation and insurance.

"The current situation can be described as highly volatile. In the short term, the market depends on geopolitics, and in the long term — on the balance of supply and demand, inventory levels and investment activity in the industry," the analyst added.

According to the expert, the main risk factor now is related not so much to the balance of the market itself, but rather to the speed of resolving geopolitical conflicts. If tensions decrease, investors' attention will switch back to the fundamentals, but with increased risks, oil prices may receive additional support.

On August 2, OPEC+ countries decided to adjust September quotas and increase total oil production by 188,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia will account for the main shares of the increase, which will increase production by 62,000 barrels per day to 10.478 million barrels and 9.949 million barrels per day, respectively.