- Статьи
- Economy
- Planned savings: the Central Bank has recorded a change in consumer behavior of Russians
Planned savings: the Central Bank has recorded a change in consumer behavior of Russians
Russians have become less likely to afford large purchases: today a bed, later a wardrobe, and instead of expensive equipment, a budget model. People are behaving more rationally — they are increasingly splitting up the basket, looking for discounts and switching to marketplaces, according to a Central Bank report reviewed by Izvestia. The reasons are the slowdown in real income growth and expensive loans. But the savings did not reduce the amount of spending: in the first half of the year, earnings increased by 7%, and expenses by 14%. Money is spent on small purchases, which become more expensive following inflation. What Russians save the most on and how long this consumption model will last is in the Izvestia article.
What do Russians save the most on?
According to the results of the first half of 2026, the consumer activity of Russians increased by 4.8% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. After cooling off at the beginning of the year, demand accelerated in April–May, and continued to rise in June, although weaker. The reasons were inflation expectations, the strengthening of the ruble and the revival of consumer lending, according to the July report of the Central Bank "Regional Economy". Izvestia sent a request to the regulator.
However, the general growth hides a change in habits — the regulator noted that Russians have become more rational: they split up purchases, look for discounts and choose cheap analogues. For example, grocery chains in Primorsky Krai and Novosibirsk Region recorded a decrease in the number of items in the receipt. Sales have to be supported by promotions, special prices and delivery, according to the report.
The less mandatory the purchase, the more noticeable the savings. Demand for the non—food segment — clothing, shoes, household chemicals, household goods and repairs – remained subdued in January-May, the Central Bank said. Thus, a representative of a chain of household chemicals stores in the Tula region noted the reorientation of consumers to cheaper products and a decrease in the average purchase size.
At the same time, sales of furniture and building materials were further limited by the cooling of the housing market. A manufacturer from Chuvashia noticed that instead of kits, people are increasingly taking individual items and looking at second-hand options. A large shopping center for household goods from Crimea also reported a decrease in sales.
Saving leads customers online, which is already hitting traditional trading. According to the Central Bank, the cosmetics and perfumery store chain in the Volga-Vyatka macroregion closed almost 15% of its outlets in the second quarter. A seller of furniture and household goods in the Kostroma region recorded a twofold drop in sales year-on-year after customers switched to electronic platforms.
It's not so much about reducing consumption as about rebuilding it, explained Anastasia Sidorina, Director of Customer Relations at ROMIR. Russians allocate expenses over time, eliminate optional items and move into the affordable segment.
According to ROMIR, 40% of citizens cope with economic difficulties by refusing expensive purchases and durable goods. At the same time, in June, people's willingness to postpone the purchase of household appliances and real estate, as well as ready-made food, increased.
This trend is also seen by sellers. Ascon did not record a sharp decrease in the average bill, but noticed a decrease in the share of expensive orders: due to the situation on the housing market, people are less likely to fully equip new apartments. The indicator decreased the most in accessories, bedding, pillows and other household goods, they shared.
In "M.The video also speaks not about abandoning major acquisitions, but about careful planning. The necessary items are taken gradually, and the cost is more often divided into parts. Over the past six months, the volume of orders through the BNPL network service has increased by a third, the company said.
Customers of the All-Tools store.<url>" began to take fewer tools, accessories and consumables at once, said Alexandra Ivanchenko, sales director for B2C clients of the company. Now they take longer to compare analogues and choose the equipment that is sufficient for a specific task, she added.
What purchases people will not refuse
The main reason for buyers' caution is the slowdown in earnings growth, the Central Bank noted. According to Rosstat, in the second quarter, real (adjusted for inflation) disposable incomes increased by only 1.5%, whereas a year earlier the increase reached 10.1%. By the end of June, enterprises began to plan salary increases more cautiously, a survey by the regulator showed.
After mandatory expenses, families have less money left for large purchases, Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency, explained. A significant portion of the budget is spent on groceries, housing, transportation, education, and loans.
Caution is reinforced by inflation, which eats up the increase in income, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. According to Rosstat, prices increased by 4.2% in January–June. At the same time, the annual inflation felt by the population reached 15.1% in July, according to an inFOM survey for the Bank of Russia.
Expensive loans and stricter requirements for borrowers, especially for unsecured loans, remain another limitation, Natalia Milchakova added.
Spending on household goods and furniture is decreasing the most, said Maria Ermilova, Associate Professor of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. When choosing equipment, Russians switch to budget or used models, and products to their own brands instead of premium brands. They are also saving on domestic tourism, entertainment and fitness, she added.
But even in conditions of economy, people continue to spend on basic food, medicines and medical services, children's goods, education, housing and communal services, fuel, communications and the Internet, Maria Ermilova noted.
At the same time, according to ROMIR, in June, Russians began to give up eating out and cigarettes less often.
Why are costs rising while saving
There is a downside to saving: Russians have started saving less. Deposit rates are declining, while inflation expectations remain high. In July, they rose to 14.7%, the highest since the spring of 2022, according to an inFOM survey. Therefore, consumer activity is not decreasing — people are spending now, fearing a rise in price, explained Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam.
The trend is confirmed by the Bank of Russia: The share of citizens who prefer to save money dropped to 48%, the lowest since March 2015. At the same time, according to Rosstat, in the first half of the year, people's nominal incomes increased by 7%, and expenses almost doubled.
Saving inside the basket does not reduce the amount of spending. Maria Ermilova from the Russian University of Economics explains this by "inflationary substitution": expensive items are replaced by small purchases, the cost of which increases following prices. The pressure is also increased by the so-called shrinkflation: a smaller volume of goods is sold for the same price, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global.
"High inflation is with us for a long time, and accordingly, this model of consumer behavior may persist at least until 2028, when the indicator begins to fall noticeably," the analyst stressed.
In such conditions, trade will grow by only 2-3% per year, while the production of consumer goods will grow by 1-2%, Natalia Milchakova predicts.
The restructuring of demand will strengthen the positions of its own brands, resale, inexpensive goods and budget manufacturers, Maria Ermilova believes. At the same time, the release of premium product lines may decrease, and businesses will have to change their business models. At the same time, most enterprises do not expect demand growth in the second half of the year compared to the first, the Central Bank notes.
Thus, the consumer market found itself at a paradoxical point: the receipt is growing, but the basket is getting smaller. Russians have not stopped spending, but now every purchase goes through an internal tender — for price, urgency and payment method. As long as income lags behind spending, it is this kind of caution, not a consumer boom, that will determine trading.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
