Counter-promotion: APEC may become a platform for talks between Putin, Xi and Trump
A trilateral meeting of the heads of Russia, China and the United States may take place at the APEC summit. In practice, it is quite feasible, as the three leaders are expected in November in Shenzhen, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. This is an ideal opportunity to discuss strategic stability when the largest nuclear arsenals are no longer constrained by any treaty. However, experts consider a new agreement unlikely. In addition, the parties could consider ways to resolve the Iranian and Ukrainian conflicts.
Dialogue on strategic stability
The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which will be held on November 18-19, 2026 in Shenzhen, may become the venue for the most anticipated geopolitical event of recent years — a personal meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. The Russian leader will personally attend the summit for the first time in almost 10 years. The head of the White House is also showing interest in the event, according to the APEC secretariat.
Marat Berdyev, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador—at-large, who serves as Russia's senior official at APEC, told Izvestia that preparations for the summit are still in the middle of the road, and its basic parameters are being determined, both substantive and organizational.
— It's too early to talk about specific meetings yet. However, in my opinion, such a three-way contact would be very useful. In practical terms, it is quite feasible, since three leaders of the leading powers are expected at the specified site," he told Izvestia.
The summit, chaired by China, will be held under the slogan "Building an Asia-Pacific Community for shared Prosperity." Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met at the last congress in South Korea, but personal contacts did not lead to a breakthrough in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, the APEC summit provides an ideal format for probing the positions of the three largest nuclear powers.
The future of nuclear arsenal control, which is in deep crisis, is one of the main challenges today. After the START-3 Treaty officially expired on February 5, 2026, the world found itself in a complete legal vacuum for the first time in many decades. Now there is not a single bilateral agreement that curbs the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States.
Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that any future agreements in this area are meaningless without the participation of Beijing, whose nuclear triad is rapidly modernizing. The APEC platform provides Washington with a rare opportunity to initiate this complex trilateral dialogue directly.
The Russian position on this issue remains pragmatic. Moscow, as the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized after the start of the START Treaty, intends to act responsibly, but insists that the new agreement should take into account not only American forces, but also the combined nuclear capabilities of Great Britain and France. China, in turn, has traditionally distanced itself from the bilateral disputes between Moscow and Washington, pointing out the disparity in the scale of the arsenals.
Chinese Heavy Silo-based intercontinental Ballistic Missile
However, according to Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO Center for International Security, it will not be possible to agree on nuclear arms control between Russia, China and the United States at the APEC summit, and this is not expected to be on the agenda. The expert recalled that the United States' demarche for China's inclusion in nuclear arms control has been going on for the eighth year: it began in 2018, when the Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the de facto Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in order to balance China's potential in the Asia-Pacific region.
Washington emphasized that during the period of the treaty, China has increased the largest grouping of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles. Moreover, in 2021, the massive construction of China's silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles was noticed, which became the subject of another concern for Washington. The United States is calling on China for asymmetric bilateral nuclear arms control, while showing no interest in extending restrictions on strategic nuclear weapons by Russia and the United States.
However, China is not going to such negotiations: by signing the agreement, it would officially consolidate its current backlog — its nuclear arsenal is several times smaller than the American and Russian ones. Beijing is ready to join the negotiations only after the two largest nuclear powers reduce their arsenals to a comparable level. But the United States will not agree to this.
Atomic missile system participates in military parade in Beijing
Therefore, a face-to-face meeting of the "big three" in China is unlikely to lead to an immediate signing of the agreement, but it can at least launch expert negotiations on the creation of a multilateral system of mutual notifications and confidence-building measures. Nuclear nonproliferation issues may also be discussed in China, taking into account the situation around North Korea, according to Andrei Kortunov, an expert at Valdai.
Resolution of the Ukrainian conflict
The international community can expect progress in the Ukrainian settlement from the leaders of the three countries. Although Washington's role in this process has been significantly reduced recently, the White House nevertheless does not refuse mediation.
At the same time, the United States continues to supply weapons to Kiev - just not directly, but through European allies who purchase them from the Americans for the Armed Forces. Moreover, during his recent visit to Washington, Vladimir Zelensky actively lobbied for the issuance of American licenses to Ukraine for the production of interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems. Moreover, Trump was not against handing over the licenses before, and this time he allegedly finally agreed.
The American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system
Following the July talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated bluntly: past approaches have failed, and in order to achieve genuine peace, Washington needs to offer fundamentally "new ideas and concepts." The APEC Summit in Shenzhen provides an ideal high-level format for the presentation and discussion of these updated American developments.
In this configuration, China is able to act as a key balancer and guarantor of stability, whose position can determine the success of a potential deal. Moreover, Beijing had previously launched its own peace initiative, sending its diplomats to Moscow and Kiev in search of ways to resolve the conflict. According to a number of experts, for China, the APEC summit in Shenzhen may become not just a home venue, but an opportunity to demonstrate the status of a responsible superpower capable of moderating global crises.
However, according to Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian conflict is now peripheral to both China and the United States, so it is unlikely to be discussed as a key agenda of Russian-Chinese-American relations. The expert considers it unlikely that agreements on Ukraine will be reached at such a meeting, as the focus will be on global issues.
Andrei Kortunov believes that if a trilateral meeting of Russia, the United States and China takes place, then the topic of the Middle East crisis may be raised at the talks, not only in the context of Iran, but also taking into account the situation in the Red Sea and Israel's operation in Lebanon. The coordination of the positions of the three countries here is important for the adoption of joint resolutions in the UN Security Council. The expert did not rule out discussing issues of energy and food security, as well as the upcoming UN reform in connection with the expiration of the powers of Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
One way or another, but the potential contacts of the leaders of Russia, China and the United States at the Shenzhen summit will play a decisive role for the fate of the entire international system. It is these three powers that today have real military, strategic and economic potential, capable of both plunging the world into irreversible global chaos and keeping it from falling into the abyss. At a time when the old international institutions are paralyzed and previous agreements are not working, direct diplomacy of key players is becoming the only effective tool.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
