Negotiation style: how the meeting between Lavrov and Rubio in the Philippines ended

The heads of the diplomatic departments of Russia and the United States held a personal meeting for the first time in 10 months. The parties want to give a new impetus to the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Russia remains committed to the agreements reached in Alaska, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: The United States is ready to introduce some new ideas. Experts believe that with the growing anti-Russian consensus in Congress, the Trump administration is looking for other options to move the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis off the ground. However, Moscow is not overly optimistic about this. At the same time, Russia and the United States have many other issues, including Iran and bilateral relations.

The results of the talks between Lavrov and Rubio in Manila

The first personal meeting between the heads of the Russian and US diplomatic missions since September last year was held in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, where the ASEAN summit was held. For them, this is the fourth dialogue, not counting the negotiations in Alaska. Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio were in contact in February 2025 in the capital of Saudi Arabia, as well as in July of the same year in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In September, the negotiations took place during the high-level week of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. At the same time, they regularly call each other: the last conversation took place on May 25.

The meeting in Manila was initiated by the American side, but Russia also had issues to discuss. The day before, Sergey Lavrov said that he plans to find out the current position of the United States on the settlement in Ukraine.

The meeting, which lasted just over half an hour, was largely devoted to this topic. By the way, negotiations in Malaysia and at the UN General Assembly took twice as long last year. However, reducing the time for dialogue probably did not affect its quality.

Lavrov reiterated the Russian side's readiness for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow is committed to the proposals that were put forward by the American side at the Anchorage meeting and to which the Russian leader agreed, an official statement said after the talks. The parties have not publicly announced what exactly the understandings reached in Anchorage are. They probably include a territorial aspect, the media wrote. At the same time, the 28-point American peace plan published at the end of last year provided for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the part of the DPR controlled by them. Moscow stated that the territorial issue is a fundamentally important part of the "Anchorage formula."

The US Secretary of State, responding to a question from journalists, stressed that Washington is also ready to play a constructive role in the Ukrainian settlement. However, then Marco Rubio mentioned the need to look for "new proposals and new ideas," and also added that the United States is ready to present "some of them in an appropriate setting and form."

It is still unclear whether the US Secretary of State's words about "new ideas" mean a complete departure from the Anchorage agreements. The Trump administration adheres to strategic uncertainty and may set mutually exclusive goals, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. Earlier, Marco Rubio said that no agreement was reached during the Alaska summit; the Russian side pointed out that Moscow accepted the US proposal, which was then actually rejected by Kiev. In addition, the White House now has to take into account the bipartisan anti-Russian consensus in the US Congress, which intensified after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia), Loshkarev noted. In particular, a bill was introduced on sanctions against Russia and duties against buyers of our oil.

At the same time, contacts on the Ukrainian issue have recently intensified dramatically. In particular, on July 4, the presidents of Russia and the United States had a telephone conversation, then Donald Trump met in Istanbul with Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders.

Literally on July 22, Zelensky phoned with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner, who are in charge of the Ukrainian settlement at the White House. Witkoff and Kushner had previously expressed their willingness to come to Russia if necessary. At the same time, contacts between the Russian Federation and the United States continue through existing channels on an ongoing basis, but there is still no need to talk about speeding up the settlement, Dmitry Peskov noted.

Bilateral relations between Russia and the United States

During the negotiations, special attention was paid to how to normalize the functioning of the diplomatic missions of Russia and the United States. Now this process is progressing slowly — the next meeting of experts from the two countries on the elimination of "irritants" took place in May. We are talking about personal sanctions, visa restrictions and the illegal arrest of Russian diplomatic property in the United States. Izvestia previously wrote that Washington links progress in resolving these issues with the end of the conflict in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State welcomed the resumption of full-fledged contacts between Roscosmos and NASA, and also called for the development of interparliamentary exchanges and cultural ties. On July 14, the Russian-American crew launched from Baikonur to the ISS, whose work was recently extended by Roscosmos and NASA until 2030.

Interparliamentary ties intensified after the visit of Russian deputies to the United States in March, and representatives of the U.S. Congress are expected to return to Russia. The expansion of interstate parliamentary communication and the establishment of personal relations between lawmakers is the foundation that can play a much more significant role in the future, in the context of full—scale bilateral warming, HSE analyst Egor Toropov told Izvestia. According to him, lawmakers can significantly accelerate and deepen the conclusion of specific interstate agreements. Moreover, Russia and the United States have many topics for discussion, given their role in the global arena.

The situation around Iran

One of these issues is the settlement of the conflict in the Middle East. The US military has been attacking Iran for the 12th night in a row, according to the Central Command of the US Armed Forces. The ministry said the strikes targeted military targets, including "naval assets, missile and drone storage sites, coastal observation posts and air defense systems." In response, Iran launched drone strikes at the logistics center, fuel tanks and an ammunition depot at American facilities in Kuwait at night, the IRGC said.

In the current situation, the price of gas on the European stock exchange on Thursday exceeded $750 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since March 19, and the United Kingdom evacuated its diplomats from Iran. The situation may lead to the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the IRGC said that its southern part was mined, and urged shipping companies not to use this route. According to AP, Yemeni Houthi rebels said on the morning of July 23 that they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Earlier, they announced a blockade for vessels associated with Saudi Arabia and passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Russia and the United States want to normalize the situation and enter a new stage of reconstruction of the region, said Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The problem is that the parties see the acceptable means and instruments of settlement differently. The UN Security Council is currently unable to resolve this conflict, and the creation of a bilateral platform between Russia and the United States on the Middle East is impossible due to other problems in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, Moscow can contribute to the settlement thanks to good relations with both Iran and the Persian Gulf countries. Russia also expressed its willingness to accept enriched uranium from Iranian nuclear facilities, but the United States rejected this initiative.

The meeting between Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio showed that Moscow and Washington are not abandoning dialogue, despite the divergence of positions on a number of issues.

The two nuclear powers should keep communication channels open and listen to each other's positions in order to avoid a direct clash. Moreover, the potential for cooperation in such areas as space, culture or nuclear deterrence remains.