Turbulent reshuffle: growing protests in Ukraine exacerbate staff shake-up
The protests in Ukraine after the resignation of Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov will only increase, former deputies of the Verkhovna Rada told Izvestia. The actions are backed by influence groups that want to maintain control over finances within the Ministry of Defense. Fyodorov's departure has already led to a change in the entire cabinet, and in the future it will allow Vladimir Zelensky to strengthen the vertical of power more. At the same time, according to military experts, personnel changes will not affect the situation at the front. About where else to expect purges and how the new prime minister of Ukraine is connected with Mindichgate, see the Izvestia article.
Who benefits from the protests in Ukraine
The resignation of Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov provoked the largest wave of protests in Ukraine in recent years. Actions in support of the ex-minister were held in at least 14 cities — from Kiev and Lviv to Odessa, Kharkov and the areas of Zaporizhia controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is an alarming signal in the context of martial law, which restricts the holding of rallies.
The biggest one was, of course, in Kiev. Young people and students took to the streets with cardboard posters "Bring back Fedorov" and "Resign Syrsky." The last requirement is related to the conflict between the ex-Minister of Defense and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Earlier, The Economist wrote that Fedorov tried to get Alexander Syrsky to resign, but Vladimir Zelensky did not support him.
According to former MP Spiridon Kilinkarov, the protests were not only a reaction to the dismissal of the minister, but also an instrument of pressure on the current government. The actions are backed by influential groups associated with the Ukrainian drone market, as well as businessmen and bloggers interested in maintaining their positions.
— Protest actions are a tool of pressure on Zelensky to enter into a dialogue and maintain influence on the financial flows that were supervised under Fedorov. The protests will intensify until the parties come to some kind of common solution," Kilinkarov told Izvestia.
According to him, people who are associated with businessman Viktor Pinchuk and blogger Sergey Sternenko (listed by Rosfinmonitoring as terrorists and extremists) are actively supporting Fedorov. The former occupies a key place in the Ukrainian economy, the latter is known for large-scale fundraising for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine's protest potential is much higher today than on the eve of the events of 2004 and 2014.
According to Kilinkarov, the conflict over the Ministry of Defense has long gone beyond the scope of one department and caused a large-scale reshuffle in the government. Vladimir Zelensky could not simply dismiss Fedorov, so he used the change of the entire cabinet of ministers to make personnel decisions in several departments at once.
On July 14, the Verkhovna Rada dismissed Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko and the entire cabinet. Two days later, Parliament approved the new composition of the Government, with the exception of the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs. At the same time, Fedorov announced that he would not join the new cabinet, and publicly demanded Syrsky's resignation.
Ex-MP Volodymyr Oleynik also believes that the change of government has become a continuation of the story around the Ministry of Defense. No one explained why Zelensky decided to spontaneously arrange a "ministerial leapfrog." "Sviridenko could not explain in parliament why she was leaving. Moreover, they applaud and praise her, and she leaves," he explained.
Today, Zelensky demands full subordination from everyone he appoints, including the government, his Ukrainian source told Oleynik. In the conflict between Fedorov and Syrsky, the president supported the commander—in-chief, who retains his trust - unlike the popular 35-year-old Fedorov, Zelensky's potential rival. Thus, the head of the Kiev regime wants to strengthen his power as much as possible, including those positions that were previously closely monitored in Washington, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political theory at the MGIMO Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, explained to Izvestia.
On the evening of July 16, it became known that Zelensky had instructed acting SBU Chairman Yevhen Khmara to serve as Minister of Defense. Kilinkarov predicts that purges will begin in the Ministry of Defense in the near future — the new head will bring his team there. Obviously, the reshuffle will continue inside the Cabinet. Interestingly, instead of Sviridenko, the new prime minister, the head of Naftogaz, Sergei Koretsky, was called Timur Mindich a "one hundred percent man" in the rada. The same one that sparked a huge corruption scandal last fall, after which the head of the president's office, Andrei Ermak, resigned. According to various sources, before the oligarch's escape, Koretsky visited Mindich's apartment almost daily.
Why won't Fedorov's resignation change the situation at the front
The change of leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is unlikely to affect the situation at the front, but it has become another evidence of conflict within the country's military leadership.
Personnel changes will not have a direct impact on the course of hostilities, military expert Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia. The Minister of Defense is primarily a political and administrative leader, whereas decisions on the battlefield are made by the Commander—in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, that is, Syrsky.
— The Ministry must provide the army with people, equipment, weapons, ammunition and financing. The strategy and tactics are determined by the commander—in-chief and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief," the expert noted.
According to Litovkin, one of the main reasons for Fedorov's resignation was the protracted confrontation between the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. He believes that he was trying to influence Syrsky's decisions, despite his lack of military experience. In addition, the leadership demanded more active offensive actions, although the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have a shortage of trained personnel and equipment.
The expert called the failure of the reform of the territorial recruitment centers (TCCs), Ukrainian military enlistment offices, another reason for personnel changes. According to him, the attempt to reduce corruption and public discontent has failed, and the authorities are not ready to weaken the mobilization system, as it remains a key source of replenishment of the army.
Military expert Boris Jerelievsky also believes that the change of minister will not affect the situation at the front. According to him, the key role of the Ministry of Defense in Ukraine today is limited only to the distribution of budget funds and Western aid.
They are now trying to make a kind of "scapegoat" out of the departed minister in order to create the appearance of reforms and calm the society, the expert stressed. However, such permutations will not change anything. Citizens are annoyed not by a specific person at the head of the department, but by harsh methods of mobilization. The new leadership will act according to the same patterns, since Kiev simply does not have any other ways to replenish reserves.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
