Supreme intrigue: who benefits from a change of government in Ukraine
External players are interested in a large-scale reboot of the government of Ukraine and the security sector. The change of the cabinet may be related to Washington's testing of the country's future leadership, former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov told Izvestia. Moreover, the reshuffle is taking place amid a multitude of internal problems and scandals, including the recent assassination attempt on businessman Vadim Ermolaev in Monaco. He could have started financing Zelensky's opponents, who are trying to concentrate power with the permission of Brussels. They do not interfere in any way with the operations of the Ukrainian special services on European territory, the EP told Izvestia. About the new round of confrontation in the Ukrainian elites — in the material of Izvestia.
Who is interested in resetting the government in Ukraine
Ukraine is entering the phase of another government change. It is planned to "reflash" the entire Cabinet. Volodymyr Zelenskyy linked the personnel changes to a new conflict management strategy. Kiev wants to strengthen certain areas of foreign policy, including defense cooperation with the United States and the EU, European integration, and ties with China and the Middle East. Yulia Sviridenko, who resigned as prime minister, may become Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, replacing Olga Stefanyshina. The latter's departure to local journalists is linked to a corruption scandal: her family was allegedly able to purchase an apartment in Kiev at a price significantly lower than the market price. However, rotation can serve another purpose.
Former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko
— This is not a reshuffle in the government. This is a search for a candidate for the future head of Ukraine, a search for a candidate for the presidency. Right now, the starting position for the presidential elections, which will take place sooner or later, is most likely the position of Prime Minister. Zelensky is also not suitable, so we are looking for some promising young man, relatively young,— former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov told Izvestia.
Zelensky's main competitor remains the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now ambassador to London Valery Zaluzhny. According to media reports, he was recently summoned to Kiev for a direct conversation about his readiness to participate in the autumn elections, to which he replied in the affirmative.
Several candidates are currently being considered for the post of Prime Minister. The most likely of all is the head of Naftogaz, Sergey Koretsky. Such a figure can suit both Europeans and Americans, as the West's interest in Ukraine is increasingly shifting towards control over assets, energy and future commercial projects, political analyst Vadim Siprov said in a conversation with Izvestia.
First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denis Shmygal (who is currently acting as head of government until a new one is appointed) and Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov are also being considered. Mikhail Fedorov, the head of the Ministry of Defense, is also named among the candidates, but his position has been greatly shaken due to the failure of mobilization plans and severe public discontent with the working methods of the Shopping Center. Fyodorov, despite his image as a progressive technocrat, did not carry out the reform of military enlistment offices.
However, the real choice of the figure remains with Washington, Azarov said.
— The Europeans are not betting on anyone, because the Americans are the key owners. They gave the team for this casting, for the selection. Most likely, they are the ones who have identified the candidates, and Zelensky is just voicing them," he said.
Changing the power unit
However, the permutations should also apply to the power unit. According to media reports, the current head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Igor Klimenko, may take the chair of the head of the Ministry of Defense instead of Fedorov. Zelensky is extremely unhappy with the results in the field of mobilization, and Klimenko probably needs to solve this problem.
At the same time, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak reported on rumors circulating in the rada about preparations to replace the leadership of the SBU and the State Bureau of Investigation (GBR). This fits perfectly into Zelensky's general logic of controlling the country's security apparatus.
Back in February, after the scandalous anti-corruption operation Midas, the president's office attempted to eliminate any autonomous centers of influence in the law enforcement vertical. Zelensky's main goal here is to lock down all power structures and prevent the excessive strengthening and independence of figures of the caliber of Kirill Budanov or Vasily Malyuk (both are included in the list of terrorists and extremists).
At the same time, the assassination attempt in Monaco on Ukrainian-born businessman Vadim Ermolaev coincided with the reshuffle in the government of Ukraine. Later, Anastasia Berezovskaya, a suspect in the attack, was found murdered in Ukraine, and among those detained in this case was a man associated with military intelligence.
Ermolaev is a businessman from Dnepropetrovsk (the Ukrainian name of the city has been Dnipro since 2016), the founder of the Alef group of companies and one of the former participants in the Forbes Ukrainian list. The Ukrainian authorities associate him with business in Crimea: according to the SBU, the structures associated with Ermolaev could continue to work on the peninsula and pay taxes to the Russian budget. At the same time, the Ukrainian media reported that Ermolaev owned a network of fraudulent call centers. According to former Rada deputy Oleg Tsarev, the oligarch could also be involved in the secret financing of Valery Zaluzhny's political ambitions.
However, there is another opinion. According to political analyst Alexander Dudchak, the assassination attempt on Ermolaev is more likely related to economic conflicts than to the struggle over government reshuffles. He believes that we could be talking about a dispute over income from call centers and other questionable schemes.
So far, there has been no reaction from Brussels, despite the fact that the assassination attempt took place on the territory of the principality, located in the center of Europe.
"Obviously, there is a lot of military and intelligence cooperation between the EU member states and Ukraine," Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
He believes that Ukraine's illegal activities in the EU are not discussed at the level of contacts between the special services, as their attention is entirely focused on the fight against Russia.
Nevertheless, the Ermolaev case has already become inconvenient for Kiev due to the connection of individual defendants with Ukraine. According to media reports, a possible connection with the GUR has caused concern among MPs and Kiev's Western allies. And Ukraine's reputation in Europe has noticeably deteriorated, the MEP said. According to him, the Ukrainian authorities are increasingly criticized in the European Parliament for glorifying Nazi figures, human rights violations and dubious ideological line.
Under these conditions, the reshuffle in Kiev should allow Zelensky to relieve tension within the country and be able to rebuild a dialogue with his closest allies, with whom there is tension. The change of persons in the security bloc should also allow Bankova not only to gain more control within the country, but also in matters of prosecuting her opponents abroad.
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