Eastern Europe refuses to help Ukraine. What does this mean?

The countries of Eastern Europe have recently begun to demonstrate their unwillingness to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Thus, Bulgaria announced its withdrawal from the "coalition of the willing", which was created to coordinate peacekeeping forces, while Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic refuse to participate in the allocation of €70 billion. How and why European countries publicly refuse to help Kiev is described in the Izvestia article.

"Coalition of the willing" without Bulgaria

• The Coalition of the Willing— an association of 35 countries that expressed a desire to participate in the deployment of peacekeeping forces on the territory of Ukraine, lost one of its members following the summit held in Paris. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who took office on May 8 after leaving the presidency, said he did not respond to French President Emmanuel Macron's invitation to participate in the event. He said that Bulgaria would not participate in coalitions that insist on continuing financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Radev added that the conflict with Russia should be resolved through diplomacy, not through military escalation.

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• Radev's comments showed that the May change of government in Bulgaria finally led to the country's U-turn towards Ukraine. Previous prime ministers were ready to transfer military aid packages to Kiev in the form of equipment, weapons and equipment. Kiev mainly received ammunition and Soviet armored vehicles, while Sofia upgraded its army according to NATO standards. At the same time, Bulgaria classified the supplies, as the topic of military assistance to Ukraine turned out to be extremely sensitive for society and became a political issue that split the country in two.

• One of the first decisions of the Radev government was to stop military supplies to Ukraine. The Cabinet's position was that the influx of weapons does not allow the conflict to be resolved, leading to its prolongation and new losses on the battlefield. Bulgaria also referred to dwindling reserves, which threatened to undermine the country's own defense capability. Sofia's withdrawal from the "coalition of the willing" was a new step. Now 34 countries remain in it: NATO members (with the exception of the USA, Hungary, Slovakia and North Macedonia), Ukraine, Australia, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus, New Zealand and Japan.

Refusal to allocate €70 billion

• The meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in Paris was preceded by the NATO summit, at which Eastern European countries also departed from the alliance's line of unconditional support for Ukraine. Slovak President Peter Pellegrini announced that Bratislava refuses to participate in providing Kiev with weapons and military assistance worth 70 billion euros in 2026 and exactly the same amount next year. This decision was made by the NATO countries and published in the final declaration.

• At the same time, Pellegrini stressed that Slovakia was not the only country that refused to participate in the allocation of funds. According to him, the Prime Ministers of Hungary and the Czech Republic, Peter Magyar and Andrei Babis, took a similar position. The United States also renounced its obligations, so they fell on the shoulders of the rest of the European members of the alliance and Canada.

• For Slovakia, the demarche at the NATO summit is a continuation of its policy of refusing military assistance to Ukraine, which was announced by Prime Minister Robert Fico in 2023. Bratislava does not allocate funds for lethal weapons from its budget and suggests resolving the conflict diplomatically, fearing its spread beyond Ukraine. Slovakia notes that Kiev and Moscow had previously reached preliminary agreements at the talks in Istanbul in 2022, until they were disrupted at the initiative of then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Politics of the Czech Republic and Hungary

• The Czech Republic and Hungary, which supported Slovakia at the NATO summit, have gone through a change of government over the past year, and in both cases forces opposed to military support for Ukraine have come to power. Hungary's new Prime Minister, Magyar, continued his predecessor Viktor Orban's hardline policy of completely rejecting any contact with the conflict. Hungary not only does not participate in the allocation of funds through NATO, but also does not finance a loan from the European Union worth €90 billion, despite the fact that the Magyar is generally a politician loyal to Brussels.

• The Czech Republic has undergone a significant transformation since Babis came to power. Previously, the country led the "shell initiative" to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition. Prague allocated its own funds for this, involved other countries in this, and helped launch new production lines. Thanks to this initiative, Ukraine has received 4.4 million rounds of ammunition in two years.

• However, with the arrival of Babis, the Czech Republic stopped funding, redirecting it to other government needs, and retained only the role of coordinator of the initiative. This led to a reduction in the number of participating countries from 20 to nine. Although the initiative continues to be supported by Czech President Petr Pavel, in 2026 it will provide Ukraine with a smaller supply of shells than in 2025.

What does this mean?

In the early months of the conflict, assistance to Ukraine was perceived as an emergency and temporary measure. European governments were able to make decisions on this issue relatively quickly and enjoyed broad support from voters. However, as the crisis drags on, regular fiscal policy has an increasing impact on decision-making. The allocation of funds for ammunition and equipment began to compete with pensions, infrastructure, healthcare, and the modernization of their own army. Superimposed on all this is the fatigue of the news background accompanying the conflict. In this dispute, the countries closest to Ukraine, which are most interested in de-escalation due to their proximity to the war zone, began to change their course.

• The current trend towards withdrawal of military aid can also be seen as a demonstration of a change in risk assessment. In Eastern Europe, they want military assistance to be provided, but responsibility for it should be taken collectively, through umbrella organizations like NATO and the European Union. Small countries do not want active participation in various initiatives to make them a party to a conflict in which they will suffer a quick defeat. They send a signal that major allies should also think about diplomacy and try to engage in dialogue, not just down the road of escalation.