The "new Orban" is claiming victory in the elections in Bulgaria. What you need to know

Parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on April 19, the eighth in the last five years. This time, the country has a chance to overcome a protracted political crisis. Former President Rumen Radev, who advocates normalization of relations with Russia and opposes military aid to Ukraine, is seeking to win the election. It is enough for him to enlist the support of one of the parties to form a stable majority and lead the government. What is the situation before the elections and whether the EU risks getting a "new Orban" in its composition — in the Izvestia article.

Election background

• The upcoming elections in Bulgaria will be another episode of the political crisis that has been going on in the country since 2021. Then, due to large-scale anti-corruption protests, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, who intermittently headed the government for 12 years, resigned. Since then, many small parties of various spectrum have emerged in the political field of Bulgaria, for which changes in the country have become the main requirement.

• This has become an obstacle to the formation of a stable majority in Parliament and, as a result, a viable Government that would receive public support. Over the past five years, no political force has managed to overcome the crisis. Since 2021, seven prime ministers have been replaced in the country and seven parliamentary elections have been held. The current ones, scheduled for April 19, will be the eighth.

Went to the polls: resignation of Bulgarian president may bring Eurosceptics to power

Rumen Radev left office in order to win a majority in parliament and form a government.

• The president has remained the only stable political institution in Bulgaria all this time. In 2017, Rumen Radev, a former military pilot and ex-commander of the Bulgarian Air Force, who was supported by the socialist parties, was elected to this post. In 2021, he won the election again and was elected for a new five-year term.

• Usually, the President of Bulgaria performs only ceremonial duties, and the real power lies with the Prime Minister. However, Radev managed to gain some influence in his post thanks to his support for street protests. He acquired the image of a fighter against corruption, oligarchs and the "mafia" in government structures. All this time, Radev has maintained high popularity and by the end of 2025 he has become almost the only politician in Bulgaria who has retained the trust of the population.

• At the end of 2025, protests against tax increases and corruption, which were blamed on the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov, broke out again in the country. Radev once again expressed sympathy for the protesters and demanded that the prime minister resign, to which he soon agreed. The president alternately gave three pro-European parties a mandate to form a new government, but all of them rejected the proposal.

• As a result, Radev made an unexpected political move. He resigned as head of state and handed over his powers to Vice President Iliyana Yotova. She announced early parliamentary elections, and Radev announced plans to participate in them. He founded the Progressive Bulgaria (PB) coalition with the Socialist parties, which, thanks to his personal popularity, immediately topped the opinion polls.

The main participants

• The European Union fears that Radev will become a new troublemaker, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He holds a moderate pro-Russian position and opposes military support for Ukraine. From the height of his military experience, he argued that Kiev should make peace with Moscow as soon as possible and abandon further resistance. Radev also advocates easing economic sanctions against Russia and resuming oil supplies, on which Bulgaria has been heavily dependent in the past. At the same time, the former president tries not to speak out on most other issues in order to attract as many supporters as possible.

• Radev is mainly opposed by pro-European and anti-Russian parties. There were three such political forces in the outgoing parliament: the conservative coalition of Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria by Boyko Borisov and the Union of Democratic Forces (GERB-SDS), the liberal alliance "We Continue the Changes" and "Democratic Bulgaria" (PP-DB) and the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms representing the interests of the Turkish minority." (APS). In the previous parliament, they lacked four seats to form a majority.

• Five other parliamentary parties are characterized to varying degrees by a positive attitude towards Russia and skepticism towards the European Union. The most radical among them is the Renaissance party, which is in alliance with the German Alternative for Germany. She is close in spirit to the right-wing parties "Greatness", "Morality, Unity, Honor" (SWORD) and "There is such a People" (ITN), which also stand on the positions of Bulgarian nationalism. The most left—wing BSP-United Left (BSP-OL) coalition in parliament is also pro-Russian and nationalist.

• Closer to the center is another Turkish party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which occupies a special place in Bulgarian politics. It is headed by Delyan Peevski, who is under US sanctions due to corruption charges. Because of his figure, for many parties, cooperation with the DPS is a risky step, and for the APS it is completely unacceptable. Their conflict largely made the previous government of Zhelyazkov shaky and unviable.

The handouts before the election

• The leader of the election race is Radeva's Progressive Bulgaria. Recent polls show that 36% of voters are ready to vote for her. The former president's coalition can count on about 100 seats in the 240-seat parliament, which no party has been able to do for a long time. The last force to have a three-digit number of seats was GERB following the 2009 elections. However, the PB will still lack seats to form a majority. The question of who exactly she will join the coalition with remains open. In the past, Radev was quite supportive of the reformist PP-DB, but they disagree on Russia, so an alliance between the former president and one of the right-wing parties is more likely.

Coming and going: Bulgaria plunged into a political crisis

How will the government's resignation affect relations with Russia

• However, until the last moment it will be unclear which one. Radev's rapid rise in politics has brought down the ratings of many small parties, which now find it extremely difficult to gain 4% to overcome the electoral barrier. Radev's possible allies on the left are also out of parliament in the polls. Vozrozhdenie still has chances to overcome the barrier, and in a coalition with it, Bulgaria will face a noticeable turnaround in relations with the European Union. Besides him, Peevski voiced support for Radev, so the option of combining with the traffic police is not excluded.

• The second and third places in the elections are claimed by the pro-European GERB-SDS and PP-DB. However, according to all preliminary calculations, they are gaining even fewer votes together than Progressive Bulgaria alone. In the previous parliament, the two parties were on opposite sides of the fence, so they have no chance of challenging Radev. But the fact that they will get into parliament will already be valuable enough for them, since the upcoming elections promise Bulgaria a new era in which there will be fewer diverse forces in parliament that provoked a permanent crisis.