The most difficult campaign: will Netanyahu stay in power
Israel has decided on the date of the parliamentary elections. Voting is scheduled for October 27. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position on the eve of the election campaign is precarious. According to recent polls, 60% of citizens do not trust him. Against this background, Gadi Eisenkot, one of the main rivals of the head of government, the former chief of the IDF General Staff, is already looking for possible partners to form a coalition. Among them may be the ultra-orthodox SHAS party, which has long been considered an ally of Netanyahu. Whether the prime minister will retain his post and what will happen to the Middle East crisis in the event of his defeat is in the Izvestia article.
Autumn denouement
On July 17, Knesset deputies will leave for the pre-election holidays. The current parliament will be the first since 1988 to serve a full four-year term without early elections. Previously, it was possible that voters would be called to the ballot boxes as early as September: in May, the Knesset supported the bill on self-dissolution in the first reading, but the authorities eventually decided to keep the voting date set by law.
"Since the current convocation of the Knesset is expected to serve its full term (...) and there is no intention to shorten the term of office of the legislature, there is no need to adopt a law on the dissolution of the Knesset according to the usual procedure," the parliament said in a statement.
The main intrigue is whether the current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will retain his post, who intends to once again ask voters for a mandate to continue his course.
Today, the situation is not in his favor. According to a Channel 12 poll, 60% of Israelis do not trust the prime minister. A study by the Israeli Institute for Democracy showed a similar trend — the majority of respondents said that Netanyahu should not participate in the upcoming elections.
At the same time, for the first time, the Yashar party of former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot became the leader of the party rating. She is projected to have 22 seats, Likud — 21, and the United party created by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — 18. Eisenkot is also ahead of Netanyahu in his personal rating: 48% of respondents consider him a suitable candidate for the post of prime minister, compared to 40% for the current head of government.
Another risk for Netanyahu was the possible rapprochement of Eisenkot with the SHAS party. The party has 11 seats in the current Knesset, so its position may be important in forming the next government.
SHAS Spiritual Leader Yitzhak Yosef
SHAS spiritual leader Yitzhak Yosef recently sharply criticized Netanyahu over disagreements over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service. "Will Bibi Netanyahu repent? No way. But Eisenkot may repent," The Times of Israel quoted Yosef as saying. The Israeli media interpreted his words as a signal of possible cooperation after the elections, although there are no official agreements between the parties yet.
Judicial risks and military miscalculations
For Netanyahu, winning the election has more than just political significance. During his previous term, three criminal cases were initiated against him — on bribery, fraud and abuse of trust. The most serious charge carries up to ten years in prison.
The "1000 case" is connected with the receipt of expensive gifts by Netanyahu and his family members from Hollywood producer Arnon Milchen and other businessmen. The "Case 2000" concerns an alleged deal with publisher Yedioth Ahronoth to provide more favorable coverage in exchange for action against rival publication Israel Hayom.
The "case 4000" is considered the most serious. According to the prosecution, the prime minister facilitated the adoption of decisions beneficial to the telecommunications company Bezeq in exchange for positive coverage of his activities on the Walla news website.
The regional escalation initially played into Netanyahu's hands. He presents the fighting with Iran as a personal victory and proof that his government has thwarted Tehran's development of nuclear weapons. According to the prime minister, Iran was "rapidly rushing towards nuclear weapons" and was moving its missile and nuclear infrastructure underground. "We have prevented this threat of extermination of the Israeli population for many years to come," he said.
However, this line is being undermined by the government's responsibility for the failure of October 7, 2023, and the lack of a clear way out of the protracted conflicts. Likud's positions have weakened especially noticeably in the north of the country. According to Agam Labs, 23% of local residents are ready to vote for the party against 35% in the 2022 elections. About 70% of Northerners are unhappy with the way the authorities are handling the conflict with Lebanon.
Disagreements with the United States have also become a problem. According to Axios, Donald Trump sharply criticized Netanyahu in one of the phone conversations. Such messages are painful for the prime minister, as he traditionally presents close relations with Washington and personally with the American leader as one of his main political advantages.
Netanyahu's opponents take advantage of these failures, but do not propose to abandon the policy of force. Eisenkot accuses the prime minister of lacking a strategy to end the war and at the same time advocates maintaining tough pressure on Iran and Hezbollah.
"Never before has the Israeli Prime Minister agreed to such a humiliating demand," he said after Netanyahu accepted the US demand not to launch new strikes on Beirut.
Bennett opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, and Lapid supported attacks on Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure. In the Gaza Strip, they demand more consistent actions and a clear post-war plan.
What the experts say
Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of winning the autumn parliamentary elections are low, political analyst Ilgar Velizade told Izvestia. However, Israeli society remains highly polarized and it still has many supporters, so winning cannot be completely ruled out.
— In the event of Netanyahu's defeat, an additional factor will be the ongoing criminal trial against him. Judicial proceedings can maintain tension in society and provoke new internal political conflicts. At the same time, if Netanyahu leaves office, the impact of the process on current policy may decrease over time," the expert noted.
In his opinion, a sharp change in Israel's Middle East course should not be expected even after a change of government. The prime minister's opponents criticize him not for the severity of military operations, but for their lack of effectiveness. Therefore, it may be more about adjusting approaches and using diplomacy more actively than about abandoning power politics.
The upcoming elections will be the most difficult for Netanyahu in his entire career, agrees Kamran Hasanov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the prime minister has repeatedly demonstrated political vitality and the ability to get out of extremely difficult situations.
— Netanyahu can use foreign policy to mobilize voters. We can talk about increased attacks on Lebanon, a new escalation in the Gaza Strip, or another operation against Iran. The hard line towards Tehran enjoys some support in the Israeli political establishment," Hasanov explained.
According to him, the outcome of the vote will largely depend on undecided voters and the events of the last weeks of the campaign. Iran's new attack will allow Netanyahu to once again appear as the defender of the country. If citizens decide that his policy is dragging Israel into new conflicts and intensifying international isolation, this will play against the prime minister.
— Israelis are increasingly feeling the consequences of the regional escalation themselves. The country is being attacked by Hezbollah and Iran, so a part of society feels that Israel has become less secure under Netanyahu," the expert concluded.
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