Tactical maneuver: Netanyahu seized the initiative to dissolve the Knesset from the opposition

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing one of the most serious challenges of his political career. The Knesset has introduced a law on its dissolution. The political balance is hanging by a thread, and the ratings of the head of government are under pressure due to military failures and corruption scandals. In addition, two former prime ministers have formed an opposition bloc in order to prevent Netanyahu's re-election. However, it is not worth writing it off yet. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Speed up the elections

In Israel, the ruling party has submitted to the Knesset a bill on its dissolution and holding new elections, The Times of Israel reports. The initiator was the leader of the coalition, Ofir Katz.

The term of office of the Knesset is four years. Back in April 2023, the Central Election Commission of Israel decided that the next parliamentary elections in the country should be held on October 27, 2026, unless parliament is dissolved early.

If the deputies support this, the vote will have to take place within five months from the date of the decision on dissolution. The opposition proposes to hold elections in early September, and the dates are September 1 and 15.

This option is supported by the religious Shas party, while representatives of the Likud and Religious Zionism parties are opposed, believing that early elections may be unprofitable for the ruling coalition. They suggest waiting a little longer. The leader of "Religious Zionism" Bezalel Smotrich fears that the far-right will not be able to overcome the electoral threshold.

They took the initiative

The ultra-Orthodox Degel ha-Torah faction initially called for the dissolution of the Knesset due to the renewed disagreements within the coalition over the issue of conscription of Orthodox Jews into the army. According to the spiritual leader of the party, Rabbi Dov Lando, the Orthodox have lost confidence in the head of government, because the day before he made it clear to them that the law on the abolition of conscription for students of religious educational institutions — yeshivas — should be postponed, as it does not gain a majority of votes.

The Netanyahu government found itself in an unsolvable dilemma: on the one hand, its coalition partners from the Shas and Degel ha-Torah parties demanded the adoption of a law enshrining exemption from service. On the other hand, it was almost impossible to pass such a norm through parliament with a 60/60 balance of power after the opposition left without serious political damage.

In such a situation, the head of the ruling union decided to take the initiative and himself introduced a bill to dissolve parliament. The Prime Minister preferred that the coalition initiate this process rather than the opposition, as this gives the ruling Likud party and Netanyahu personally the opportunity to control the timing and conditions of the election campaign.

We are not happy to serve

In June 2024, the Supreme Court (BAGATS) decided to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredim, into the army. In addition, he forbade the financing of Jewish religious schools, whose students do not go to military service.

Conscription is mandatory for most men and women in Israel. They serve for three and two years respectively.

Haredim have been exempt from this from the very beginning of the state's existence, when then-Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion allowed 400 Haredi students to study in yeshivas without serving in the army.

The postponement was extended until the age of 26, the age limit for conscription. At the same time, the law was initially adopted as a temporary measure, but subsequently it was regularly extended for five years.

After the outbreak of Israel's war with Hamas and now with Lebanon, the fact that Orthodox Christians were actually exempted from military service began to cause discontent in Israeli society, and the country's opposition parties called for their conscription.

In May 2026, the court ordered the government to take concrete measures against the evaders, stressing that state benefits should not be provided to those who avoid service. The secular part welcomed the court's decision.

It's too early to write it off

In late April, former Prime Ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett announced the creation of a single political bloc, Be-Yahad, before the Knesset elections. Although their ideological platforms differ, they share the main goal of preventing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from being re—elected for a seventh term and ending 12 years of his rule.

Whether the prime minister will be able to win the election again is a big question. For many years, Netanyahu had an image as a guarantor of Israel's security, which his electorate liked. However, the events of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent protracted wars on several fronts have undermined this image in the eyes of Israelis. The north of the country near the border with Lebanon has become practically uninhabitable due to shelling, and the regime in Tehran, despite the strikes, has not only not fallen, but, according to some reports, accelerated nuclear development.

According to opinion polls, almost two-thirds of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should not be re-elected.

In addition, the trials of the prime Minister in three cases of corruption, bribery and abuse of trust have not stopped, they were frozen during the acute phase of the war with Iran, but they have not gone away. Some of the opposition continues to accuse Netanyahu of deliberately prolonging hostilities and fomenting conflicts in order to remain in power and avoid legal consequences, and possibly try to pass a law through parliament granting immunity to the current prime minister.

However, Netanyahu should not be discounted, his chances of re-election are pretty good. The prime minister has repeatedly proved that he is a master of political survival. He knows how to exploit differences among opponents, play on the fears of the electorate and mobilize his camp at the last moment.

In addition, the opposition is rather weak and fragmented, and the Be-Yahad bloc is united in its desire to remove Netanyahu, but not in its program of action. If they win the election, the alliance of Bennett and Lapid, who have different views on the Palestinian issue and the economy, may collapse as quickly as in 2022 (after the decision to dissolve the Knesset due to the inability to maintain its stability).