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The Caucasian Vow: The EU seeks a complete severance of relations between Russia and Armenia
The European Union is trying to strengthen its economic and geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus, seeking to oust Russia from there, which is confirmed by the zeroing of customs duties on 80% of Armenian goods. This measure by Brussels followed restrictions from Moscow. At the same time, negotiations are currently underway in the EAEU aimed at removing trade obstacles between Moscow and Yerevan. Nevertheless, Brussels' strategy creates systemic challenges, rearranging the balance of power in the Caucasus. Although the European Union will not be able to fully replace the Russian Federation in the field of security and in the Armenian market. Experts are convinced that Brussels will open its sites to producers from the republic, but the volume of these supplies will not be comparable with the previous level of exports to Russia.
What the European Union offers Armenia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has completed her tour of the South Caucasus with a visit to Yerevan. On July 2, at the final press conference, she stated that the European Union would reset customs duties on 80% of Armenian goods. In particular, fresh vegetables, fruits, plants, as well as alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages will now fall under the European free regime.
This decision followed the introduction of restrictive measures by Russia. Since the end of May, the Rosselkhoznadzor has gradually restricted the import of Armenian flowers, cognac, vegetables, fruits and fish, and from June 12 — all quarantined products, including transit to the EAEU countries. The Central Bank of Armenia estimated the possible damage at 2% of GDP.
On July 1, the day before von der Leyen's arrival, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself called Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to discuss trade and economic issues. The Russian Foreign Ministry had previously rejected suggestions that the restrictions were related to Yerevan's European integration course. The measures are called technical and explained by phytosanitary requirements. And the Armenian prime minister insists that calling Russian restrictions sanctions is "wrong," and says he expects to have a conversation with Vladimir Putin soon.
The Ministry of Economy of Armenia clarified to Izvestia that "active negotiations and discussions are currently underway aimed at removing trade barriers imposed by the Russian Federation."
"Currently, when geopolitical and logistical problems have arisen in traditional export markets, the diversification of export directions has become a priority of the economic policy of the Government of the Republic of Armenia," the ministry said.
The EU countries are considered as one of the main directions. The basis of Armenia's supplies is agricultural products, of which Russia has historically been a key consumer, Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State University, explained in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, there is fierce competition in the European market in the agricultural sector. The expert is convinced that Brussels will open its sites to Armenian producers, but the volume of these supplies will not be comparable with the previous level of exports to Russia.
According to the expert, Brussels is likely to increase quotas and launch separate programs, but it will not be able to become a full-fledged replacement. At the same time, Sidorov believes, the EU's activity in the Armenian direction is no longer dictated by economics, but by big politics: there is a struggle for a sphere of influence, and the European Union intends to openly oust Russia from the region. Geography also plays a role.: Armenia does not have access to the sea, goods to Europe will have to be transported through Georgia or Turkey, and this eats up the benefits of zero duties, especially since most of the categories covered by the benefits are perishable.
Europe is unable to replace the Russian Federation, at least quickly. Armenia's trade turnover with Russia alone is $12.4 billion, and with the entire European Union it is $2.1 billion. The republic buys gas at a discounted price. Remittances from our country account for 13.2% of Armenian GDP, and it accounts for up to 95% of labor migration. Armenia will lose 14% of GDP if it has to raise energy prices due to the country's withdrawal from the EAEU, Vladimir Putin said in May.
Brussels is trying to oust Russia from the region
Brussels' activity in the Armenian direction coincided with the crisis in relations between Moscow and Yerevan, which the EU is trying to take advantage of. The cooling of allied ties worsened after the events around Nagorno-Karabakh and its subsequent transfer under the full control of Baku. The Armenian leadership accused Russia and the CSTO of failing to fulfill their obligations to ensure the country's security. Putin emphasized that after the Armenian side officially recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan in Prague, the nature of the situation changed. The conflict has acquired an "intra-Azerbaijani dimension," and it would be incorrect for the CSTO to interfere in it.
As a result, Yerevan de facto froze its participation in the defense bloc and stopped financing it. The victory of Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party in the recent parliamentary elections in June 2026 It has finally consolidated the course towards the diversification of foreign policy. This electoral success has created favorable conditions for the European Union to strengthen its position in the region against the background of weakening ties between Yerevan and Moscow.
In addition to trade preferences, the EU will provide direct financial support to Yerevan. The republic will receive €18 million for export diversification and €20 million for the development of border communities.. The last tranche is allocated within the framework of the regional Connectivity for Peace program, which the head of the European Commission presented to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku the day before. The initiative involves the allocation of grants in the amount of up to € 200 million for the modernization of the infrastructure of the South Caucasus. Brussels expects that this project will attract up to €2 billion in private investment to the region.
Meanwhile, in June, the EU approved the allocation of emergency aid to Armenia in the amount of 52 million euros, of which 34 million euros have already been transferred. The republic will receive the remaining €18 million in the near future. In addition, within the framework of the Global Gateway European investment platform, the EU has declared its readiness to mobilize up to €2.5 billion for Armenia.
The visa issue remains an important vector of rapprochement. Action plan for regime liberalization Yerevan received entry to Europe from the European Commission in November last year. The parties are currently conducting reforms in the field of border management and migration control, which are necessary to launch visa-free entry into the Schengen area.
Yerevan's further rapprochement with Brussels is causing growing concern among its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union. The presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus stated that Armenia should set priorities as soon as possible and decide on a choice between the EU and the EAEU. The leaders of the four countries called on the Armenian leadership to hold a referendum so that the citizens of the republic could choose the geopolitical vector themselves. Moscow and Minsk emphasize that combining the two customs circuits is economically impossible. At the same time, Yerevan claims that, despite the course towards European integration, withdrawal from the EAEU is not currently being considered.
Russia has made it clear to Yerevan that it "will not allow you to sit on two chairs" and does not intend to support rapprochement with Europe at its own expense. However, according to political analyst Hayk Khalatyan, it is also important for Moscow to assess the reasons for the changes in bilateral relations, given that for many years Armenia has been considered one of the most pro-Russian countries in the post-Soviet space. According to him, today Yerevan is ready to develop the Western direction even in the presence of significant economic risks. At the same time, the main motive of the EU is the confrontation with Russia, Khalatyan notes.
The current situation in the South Caucasus complicates Moscow's position in the region. Georgia's previous pro-Western course, some difficulties in the dialogue with Baku, and now the tariff maneuvers of Brussels in Yerevan are forcing Russian diplomacy to look for new levers of counteraction. The EU is trying to seize the initiative in logistics and security by building transport routes through Turkey and Azerbaijan, which ultimately strengthens Ankara's position in the region.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
