Caucasian captive: Armenia will become dependent on Turkey through the efforts of the EU

Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union may actually result in falling into the zone of influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan, the republic's parliament told Izvestia. They recognized that Yerevan will move away from Moscow after the elections. However, experts stressed that the course of the republic's authorities would lead to a catastrophe in the economy, and the process of joining the EU would drag on for at least a decade without any guarantees.

Armenia's entry into Turkey's sphere of influence

The victory of the Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the last elections has fixed the course of the authorities in Yerevan to strengthen ties with the West. The head of government has already promised that Yerevan will continue its rapprochement with the European Union, although with an eye to the EAEU. The opposition, however, warns that Pashinyan's further "pro-European" policy is unlikely to bring the country closer to EU membership. Instead, it will lead to increased influence of Azerbaijan and Turkey on Armenia.

— When Pashinyan says that Armenia aspires to the European Union and the European continent, we must understand that the nearest "capital" of this direction is not Brussels, but Ankara. Turkey is the main representative of the region for the European Union, European countries and NATO," Gegham Manukyan, a member of the Armenian Parliament from the Dashnaktsutyun party, told Izvestia.

By the way, the party is part of the Armenia bloc, which won almost 10% of the vote.

— The "European perspective" proposed to us today, in my opinion, does not fully correspond to the classical idea of Europe. I see in her the risk of falling into the zone of Turkish-Azerbaijani influence," Victor Mnatsakanyan, leader of the Victory party, told Izvestia. — In addition, the foreign policy course of the current government remains very far from real membership in the European Union, but at the same time creates serious risks for Armenia's relations with Russia.

By the way, Ankara said it was "satisfied" with the election results, and Brussels and Washington congratulated Pashinyan on his victory. The EU and the United States will support Turkey's growing influence in the South Caucasus, as this will mean weakening their main geopolitical opponents in the region, the head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSI) told Izvestia Hayk Khalatyan. Thus, Turkey will be able to operate from a stronger position in Central Asia, where Russia and China currently have leading positions.

Getting into the orbit of Turkey will not suit a huge part of the Armenian population. The historical memory of the 1915 genocide and the struggle for Karabakh are the most important pillars of the Armenian identity. The Pashinyan government made concessions, removing demands for recognition of the genocide from the priorities of its foreign policy and constitutional references to Karabakh. And it has already borne fruit.

According to the Caucasus Barometer and IRI sociological centers (recognized by the Ministry of Justice as an undesirable organization in the Russian Federation), about 30% of the population openly oppose EU membership, while the level of direct distrust of the institutions of this association reaches 42%. The opponents of the reversal are mostly older people, as well as the agricultural sector and entrepreneurs whose businesses are tied to the Russian and EAEU markets. In addition, the clergy openly criticizes the government for the fact that for the sake of a vague "European perspective" and peace with Ankara, Yerevan is ready to erase historical memory. The church's support for protest movements and opposition politicians is a direct marker of millions of believers' disagreement with current government policies.

— Pashinyan is deceiving us in general. We were deceived. We cannot live in this region without Russia. It is impossible to live here without friendship. It is needed both with Turkey and Azerbaijan, but it is impossible without Russia," one of the residents of Yerevan told Izvestia.

In addition, Armenia is geographically isolated from Europe. It is sandwiched between Georgia, Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey, which complicates logistics and integration. If Yerevan breaks off relations with Moscow, the republic will remain defenseless.

Yerevan's desire to find protection at the source of the threat is regrettable, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting of the Committee of Secretaries of the Security Councils of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in late May. "This is the choice of the Armenian leadership and its responsibility for the future of its country and people," he added.

At the same time, Turkish goods and capital can quickly be absorbed by local Armenian businesses deprived of Russian support. Without tariff protection, cheap Turkish products (especially textiles, building materials, and agricultural goods from greenhouses) can quickly displace local Armenian producers from the domestic market.

The economic costs of severing relations with Russia

Armenian MP Gegham Manukyan stressed that Pashinyan received a lot from European countries to support his course. In particular, Brussels has promised new export markets for the products. However, Armenia is a member of the EAEU, and Russia remains its main trading partner, gas supplier and sales market. Severing ties with Russia for the sake of the EU threatens Armenia with great economic difficulties. Yerevan will lose a lot in this case, noted RIAC Program Manager Milan Lazovich.

— This is a huge discount on the gas that we supply to Armenia, and economic preferences within the EU, the absence of the need for patents for work, exams in the Russian language — simplified migration. And, of course, trade preferences will also be lost. Obviously, we are one of the main markets for Armenian vegetables and fruits. Plus the same wines, mineral water. The losses will be enormous," the expert emphasized.

Armenia buys Russian gas at a fixed discounted price of only $165 per 1,000 cubic meters. At European energy hubs, exchange prices range from $500—$600 per 1,000 cubic meters. Thus, fuel costs about 3-3.5 times more expensive for EU countries. If the price of gas in Armenia rises to the European level, the economy will face a budget deficit. For a country where the income level of the population is low, such a jump in tariffs will hit industry and utility bills of citizens.

In addition, Russia is Armenia's main trading partner. There are simply no alternatives to the Russian market for the key sectors in the republic, agriculture and the food industry. More than 80-90% of fruit and vegetable exports go to Russia. The EU will not accept them because of strict quotas, standards and its own protected agricultural industry.

— The EU's words about providing Armenian goods with access to the domestic market are just promises and dreams, because the competition in the European market of fruit and vegetable products with Turkey is very high. In the short term, these are just statements," Anna Pak, professor of the Department of International Economic Relations at the Patrice Lumumba RUDN University, told Izvestia.

Moreover, Armenia will need more than 10 years of institutional, judicial and economic reforms to achieve EU standards, Lazovich added. Brussels has been holding the Balkan countries and Turkey as candidates for years. Yerevan is now only at the very beginning of this long journey, the expert added.

In general, the South Caucasus may become an arena for Turkey's further strengthening. However, the price of such a reversal for Armenia itself risks being too high: without the Russian market, cheap energy resources and established economic ties, it will be extremely difficult for the republic to compensate for the losses that arise, even if the dialogue with the European Union continues.