Deliver as it is: why there are not enough fuel tankers
In some regions, dozens of cars line up at gas stations for one pump, people take cans with them just in case, and there's an alarm in the air: suddenly there won't be enough fuel. However, all these queues at gas stations are no longer connected with a shortage of fuel, but with the difficulties of its delivery: a shortage of fuel trucks, transportation problems and excessive demand, and in some cases, a "gray" flow - attempts to buy fuel and then resell it at inflated prices. To remedy the situation, it is necessary to optimize the schedules of scheduled refinery repairs, speed up troubleshooting, optimize the fleet of fuel tankers and, of course, strengthen the passive protection of enterprises from enemy terrorist attacks, says Alexander Frolov, a fuel market analyst. In his article for Izvestia, the Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, the editor-in-chief of Infotech, tried to explain what is happening in this area of the Russian economy today and how we can all survive this difficult period.
What is happening in the market
Slightly more than 35% of gas stations in our country are owned by oil companies, slightly more than 60% belong to the independent segment, and the rest operate under a franchise. At the same time, about two thirds of all motor fuels are sold through oil companies' gas stations. On average, one station sells 7 tons of petroleum products per day.
Most passenger cars in Russia are petrol-powered. Even 10 years ago, the AI-92 dominated the sales structure, but in recent years, the 95th has caught up with its competitor, and now they are sold at gas stations in equal proportions. A very small market share is occupied by AI-98 and higher (about 1-2%).
In normal times, Russian refineries produce 10-12% more gasoline than the domestic market requires. The surplus for diesel fuel is even more impressive — about 70-100%.
Motor fuel is a seasonal commodity. Demand peaks during the holiday period. The average sales level at a gas station varies throughout the year. The average amount of fuel a motorist buys may also fluctuate. As a rule, about 20-30 liters are purchased at a time. Of course, this is not a universal indicator that is suitable for any consumer in any region at any time of the year. This is the average value. But without an understanding of averages, many of the decisions being made now will look inexplicable.
Unscheduled refinery repairs
Recently, part of the capacity at Russian refineries has been forced to go for unscheduled repairs. This does not mean that the whole enterprise is shutting down — repairs may be required for one or two installations. But the problem is that some of them, for example, help reduce the sulfur content in commercial gasoline. The proportion of sulfur is one of the indicators used to determine the ecological class of the fuel. And it has been impossible to sell gasoline and diesel that do not comply with Euro-5 at our gas stations for ten years. In addition, fuel of a lower ecological class is subject to an increased excise tax.
Let's imagine a situation where unscheduled repairs do not allow your plant to produce fuel that meets all Euro-5 standards at the moment. So, are you stopping supplies to the domestic market or will you overpay the excise tax? No, the government takes into account the current difficulties and introduces temporary allowances for fuel characteristics. The main thing is that it should be sent to the market while the malfunctions at the enterprise are being fixed.
Of course, for the end user, this does not sound like a temporary measure that will allow to stabilize production in a difficult situation, but as a reason to worry. In this case, it is about the impact of a lower environmental class fuel (Euro-3) on the car. There should be no significant problems, but if the consumer doubts the quality, he has the right to request a passport of the batch currently being sold at the gas station, from which you can learn the main characteristics of the product.
Shortage and excessive demand
Of course, consumers have other reasons to worry — prices, queues, and the specter of shortages. And motorists are particularly annoyed by the term "excessive demand", under which, it seems to them, they are trying to hide a banal shortage of a product.
What is the difference between a shortage and excessive demand? From the point of view of a person who sees queues at gas stations and worries about prices, nothing. In fact, the difference is huge. A shortage is the inability to meet the average fuel demand typical for a given time of year. Excessive demand is a sharp excess of the average for no objective reason.
The Central Federal District is the main consumer of motor fuels in the country (according to OMT-Consult, at least 18% of total demand). The main consumer in the Central Federal District is the capital region. When capacities that provided up to 40% of the needs of Moscow and the region were put up for unplanned repairs, the question arose of redirecting flows from other plants. And at the moment when logistics began to be rebuilt, consumers went to stock up, which further complicated the situation, as demand began to significantly exceed the seasonal norm. After all, many refueled not for the usual amount or volume, but more, and, moreover, some motorists took containers with them. Thus, the number of cars per pump, the average level of demand and refueling time have increased.
It would be absurd to claim that there are no supply problems, but if the average level of demand corresponded to the seasonal norm, then logistics would be much easier to rebuild. And this does not mean that the consumer is to blame for everything. This means that the behavior of some drivers complicates the restructuring of traffic flows.
The main problem of the domestic market
Logistics is currently the main problem of the domestic motor fuel market. It's not just that we need to transfer the necessary volumes of gasoline and diesel to regions that cannot receive products from familiar enterprises. But also that by solving this problem, it is impossible to expose other segments of the domestic market.
One of the tools that make it possible to successfully redistribute flows is rationing the supply of motor fuels. Moreover, in most regions it is either at the average level of seasonal demand or above it.
Of course, there is Crimea, where gasoline is objectively in short supply, and delivery there is currently extremely complicated. But in most regions, the maximum volume that can be sold only serves to increase predictability. The supplier understands how much gasoline and diesel need to be delivered and where.
At the same time, there is a struggle against the "gray" flow, that is, attempts to buy large quantities of fuel directly at the gas station, and then sell it at higher prices. The cost of a liter of AI-95 from such resellers reached 360 rubles. It's an absurd price, but if you stir up panic, then there will be those who want to.
Even when there is an oil company refueling in the region, which, under agreements with the government, are limited in raising retail prices by the annual inflation rate. Therefore, the main queues are formed at such gas stations. At the same time, independent chains that sell gasoline 15-20 rubles per liter more expensive do not have such a rush.
However, setting up traffic flows does not eliminate the need to review the schedules of scheduled refinery repairs and speed up (if possible) the elimination of sudden malfunctions. It is also worth optimizing the tanker fleet so that the available capacity can be used for supplies from alternative destinations. The governors of some regions, in particular the Ivanovo and Lipetsk regions, spoke about their shortage.
Refineries should strengthen passive protection, taking into account negative experiences (which should be shared with colleagues on the shop floor), as well as look for new tools in the field of active protection. At least in those regions and localities where their use is possible and acceptable.
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