The key is delivery: logistics is becoming the main problem of shortage in the fuel market

There are plenty of car fuel reserves in Russia today, but in some regions there are still interruptions at gas stations. The authorities explain the situation with the consequences of the terrorist attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on oil refineries and logistical constraints, while experts agree that the main problem today is no longer production volumes, but disruptions in the delivery of fuel to consumers. At the same time, according to the industry, the needs of the domestic market have not decreased — seasonal demand in summer is traditionally 10-12% higher than the annual average. The gap between supply and demand remains in the range of 5-7%, which creates local shortages. The press service of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia that the issue of providing farmers with fuels and lubricants during seasonal field work is under constant control of both the ministry and other departments. Izvestia investigated how Russian refineries are operating now, whether there is a need to import fuel and what measures need to be taken to ensure uninterrupted supplies to the regions.

Why are there disruptions in fuel supply?

One of the main reasons for the appearance of more and more empty gas stations, as well as queues at gas stations, is precisely logistical difficulties, not insufficient production. The majority of experts interviewed by Izvestia agree on this. Thus, according to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, taking into account the measures taken at the government level, a number of plants have already postponed the dates of maintenance work to saturate the domestic market with fuel. Imports are possible from Belarus and other friendly countries to which Russian oil is supplied for refining, she added.

"In particular, one of the possible fuel supply options is the Indian Nayara Energy plant in Vadinar, in which Rosneft is a shareholder and can participate in the distribution of the product to foreign buyers," she said.

According to the expert, the tense situation with the provision of fuel to the domestic market is due to several factors at once. Among them is a reduction in refining volumes, which, according to Rosstat, amounted to 14% in May, an increase in oil exports, as well as an increase in demand for gasoline compared to the same period last year.

On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the situation on the fuel market in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin.

"We are currently seeing a certain deficit, but it is not critical,— the head of state said.

The press service of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia that the issue of providing farmers with fuel and lubricants during seasonal field work is under constant control of the Ministry, as well as other departments (the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the executive authorities of the subjects) in cooperation with fuel companies and farmers.

The current refining situation is also related to unscheduled shutdowns at a number of refineries after damage, said Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner at Kasatkin Consulting.

"The rate of return depends on the severity of the damage: plants with minor damage to primary distillation plants return to service in weeks," the expert believes. — For example, at one of the large refineries in the north-west, three of the four primary plants are already being restarted with an output of about 60% of capacity, and the reserve capacities of medium and small plants have already been activated and are operating at 90-95%.

At the same time, the expert expects a gradual improvement in the market situation. According to his forecast, in July the volume of fuel output will exceed the June figures, by the middle of the month the main deficit will decrease significantly, and by August the market will reach a balanced state. However, it will take time to fully restore fuel reserves to the regulatory level.

The authorities have already taken a number of measures to resolve the current situation.: The norms of mandatory gasoline sales on the stock exchange have been lowered, the step of price fluctuations at auctions has been limited, and this week the zero import duty on petroleum products will be extended, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

"The narrow Throat is a railway: the tanks and oil depots of the central part are overloaded, and part of the eastern routes are occupied with the transportation of raw materials,— Dmitry Kasatkin said.

He called direct deliveries without the participation of traders the most effective mechanism for solving this problem, as it was done for farmers in the south of the country, where 180 thousand tons of fuel were allocated for harvesting.

Accelerated transfer of tanks to the regions of maximum demand with manual coordination of railway transport, the creation of irreducible regional stocks and time limits on sales can also help so that local shortages do not turn into massive ones due to future purchases.

Two main mechanisms are used to resolve the situation on the fuel market: administrative and market mechanisms. Under the first one, supplies are redistributed with priority to the agro-industrial complex. The second scheme continues to operate through exchange trading, but with limited sales rates and daily price volatility.

Crimea remains the most problematic, where supplies via automobile routes are difficult, and the region is forced to rely on coupons and limits, says Dmitry Tortev, a member of the expert council of the State Duma Committee for the Protection of Competition.

"In general, the system is working, but it is still in manual control mode, and disruptions in certain areas are inevitable until logistics and processing are restored," he says.

How much fuel is in stock

Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers on June 28, noted that despite the use of reserves, gasoline reserves practically correspond to the level of the same period in 2025 — 1.7 million tons. This volume is enough for two weeks of peak summer consumption and about two months to cover the current deficit, Dmitry Kasatkin estimated.

"This small cushion is kept from being depleted by restrictions on sales and spending of reserves," he commented.

Another reason is the decrease in oil refining. According to Rosstat data for May, it increased by 14% year—on-year. According to him, the daily output of gasoline decreased from 120 thousand tons in March to about 90 thousand tons in June. As a result, a deficit is formed at the level of 20-25 thousand tons per day, or about 20% of demand, Kasatkin estimated. The situation for diesel is not so critical: its production is twice as high as the domestic demand — about 84 million tons per year, with consumption of about half of this volume.

As reported to Izvestia in the Department of information policy of the administration of the Governor of the Samara region, limits on the sale of gasoline — up to 40 liters, diesel — up to 100 liters have been in effect since June 24. There are restrictions on the litre of AI-92 and AI-95 fuel and diesel at gas stations in the Republic of Mari El, said Mikhail Polubariev, Deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Republic. But the situation is not critical and is under the control of the regional authorities.

According to Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy and editor-in-chief of the InfoTEK portal, information about which plants are being put on scheduled repairs is non-public. In addition, the repair of individual installations is not necessarily accompanied by a shutdown of the entire enterprise.

— For now, we can talk about the potential for imports, rather than clearly outlined plans. The simplest answer in this regard is that you can import it from wherever the resource is available. At the moment, there is no surplus on a global scale due to the crisis in the Middle East. Therefore, we can assume the widest range of countries: from Turkey to India," the source told Izvestia.

On average, Russia requires just over 3 million tons of gasoline per month. In summer, this figure is higher, but how much depends on demand, which is influenced by the number of tourists, as well as the needs of the agricultural sector.

The President also spoke earlier about the difficulties faced, in particular, by agricultural producers and farms during the summer period. He noted that every effort should be made to ensure that seasonal fuel supply schedules are followed for agro-industrial enterprises: the harvest depends on this.

According to Alexander Frolov, in general, supplies will be provided depending on the location of the region and its needs for railways and highways. At the same time, in his opinion, demand control remains one of the key factors. It is important to avoid excessive purchases and keep fuel consumption within the seasonal norm.

— It is also necessary to combat gray flow (purchase of fuel by private individuals at a gas station with subsequent resale). The organizers of gray flows are most interested in maintaining high demand and fanning panic," the expert said.

Which industries have been affected by fuel shortages and how are refineries protected?

The fuel shortage primarily affected the trucking industry. According to calculations by Tatiana Patuzhnaya, co—founder of SIGMA logistics company, if two weeks ago the cost of transporting a full truck from the Komi Republic to the Moscow region was about 140 thousand rubles, today it is already 240 thousand.

— At the same time, it has become much more difficult to find a car on such a route. In Moscow and the region, the problem is not only rising prices — free transport is becoming scarce, which leads to supply disruptions," the source said.

According to Alexey Shpikelman, General Director of the federal transport and logistics company Byte Transit, in fact, logistics costs have already increased.

— If earlier transport companies received discounts at gas stations, which reached 16% in different periods, now they have decreased to about 3.5%, and in the near future they may disappear altogether, which may cause an increase in transportation tariffs, — the expert outlined the situation.

According to Vadim Filatov, President of Avtogruzex, co-owner and deputy director of the PEC, cargo carriers today face an acute shortage of diesel fuel and gasoline in the Rostov Region, Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Crimea, as well as in many regions of the Far East.

— Taking into account the fact that the share of fuel in the cost of cargo transportation is 30%, the total costs of carriers increased by at least 4.8–5.4% in June, according to the data of the Avto-PEK transport company (part of the PEK holding. — Editor's note), — the expert calculated.

However, not all industry representatives share the concerns. Artyom Vaskanyan, Deputy General Director for Logistics at NC Logistic, a 3PL operator, noted that the main fleet of mainline carriers runs on diesel fuel, while Russia remains a net exporter.

— In addition, large logistics companies, as a rule, purchase fuel under long—term contracts or use their own refueling infrastructure, therefore they depend on retail gas stations much less than private motorists, - the expert said.

The current situation is influenced by several factors at once, Artyom Vaskanyan believes: the information background, the seasonal increase in demand for transportation — in summer, the volume of delivery of vegetables, fruits and melons increases, as well as active autotourism, which loads federal highways and gas station infrastructure.

— On some main routes, we do record an increase in the cost of freight transportation by about 10% over the past month, but it is primarily related to seasonal factors, and not to the situation on the fuel market, — he explained.

As representatives of the surveyed logistics companies told Izvestia, they do not raise tariffs. However, other areas have already begun to do this. For example, some driving schools that pay for gasoline for training vehicles themselves have increased the cost of training. For example, a driving school from Ufa did this.

The Yandex Taxi press service refused to answer Izvestia's question about whether the cost of fuel affected the price of trips. The editors asked other aggregators, as well as the carsharing company, for comments. The Maxim service said that they are keeping prices unchanged in all regions in order to maintain the availability of transportation services. At the same time, the situation varies significantly depending on the region.

As the president noted on June 28, today there is a need to increase the production of air defense systems and accelerate the restoration of damaged facilities after a series of strikes on critical energy infrastructure. The fight against drones includes three main areas: the detection of enemy UAVs, the creation of a unified information environment for air defense systems and the development of weapons, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.

"Drones are not easy to detect, as traditional radars are not always able to detect them," explained military expert Dmitry Kornev. — UAVs try to fly at low altitudes, hiding in the folds of the terrain. Do not forget that aircraft—type attack drones are, as a rule, small aircraft made of carbon fiber, which are poorly "seen" by radar.

Since April of this year, a unified information environment for air defense has been formed in Russia. Its main task is to increase situational awareness when repelling drone attacks. In addition, AI is being actively introduced into air defense systems. Such details of the development of air defense were announced on June 29 at a meeting with military officers by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

Sergey Baranov, Georgy Smirnov, Pavel Vikhrov, Natalia Bashlykova, Bogdan Stepovoy worked on the material.