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- Debt pause: Business's credit dependence has declined for the first time in three years
Debt pause: Business's credit dependence has declined for the first time in three years
Russian businesses began to reduce their debt burden, but at the same time became more cautious about development issues. The share of borrowed funds in the capital of large and medium-sized companies for the first time in three years decreased to 50.7% after a record 52%, FinExpertiza estimated (Izvestia has a study). Despite the reduction in the key interest rate, enterprises are still in no hurry to increase lending: Instead of launching new investment projects, they rely on savings and cost optimization. This strategy reduces the risks of bankruptcy, but at the same time holds back the modernization of production facilities, staff expansion and salary growth. Which industries and regions are still the most dependent on borrowed funds and when the business will return to active investments - in the Izvestia article.
Why does a business stop taking out loans
Despite the fact that Russian businesses are still heavily dependent on external financing, in 2025 this dependence decreased for the first time in three years. The share of borrowed funds in the capital of large and medium-sized enterprises decreased to 50.7% after a local maximum of 52% in 2024, the FinExpertiza audit and consulting network estimated according to recent data from Rosstat (statistics are published with a lag).
The indicator has been growing since 2022: then the share of borrowed capital was the lowest in recent years - 48.5%, in 2023 it rose to 50.5%, and in 2024 it reached 52%, according to analysts' calculations. Another peak over the past 10 years was recorded in covid 2020 — 52.1%. At that time, the debt burden increased against the background of low interest rates, cheap loans and anti-crisis support.
After several years of increasing debt burden, many enterprises have focused not on new loans, but on reducing costs and investment plans, said Elena Trubnikova, President of FinExpertiza. According to her, the need for external financing is also influenced by industry specifics: some companies need loans for working capital, others for long—term projects, so the reaction to a rate cut is not the same.
Companies remain cautious due to weak consumer demand, rising costs, tax burden and uncertainty, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. According to her, the business is reducing investment plans, so it needs less new loans. At the same time, the reduction in the key rate from 21% to 14.25% over the past 12 months has gradually softened monetary conditions: due to the spread of floating rates, not only new loans, but also existing loans, are becoming cheaper. This may support demand for loans, but banks are still carefully assessing the financial situation of borrowers, especially companies with high debt loads, the expert noted.
However, even after reducing the key rate to 14.25%, money remains expensive for most investment projects, said Sergey Katyrin, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI). For a business, not only the rate is important, but the final price of the loan, its term, collateral requirements, demand forecast and tax burden. If a project can yield 12-15%, it is economically unprofitable to borrow more than this level, he added.
Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank and the Ministry of Energy.
Who lives in debt
Construction remains the industry most dependent on debt financing: loans account for 74% of the capital of companies in the sector, according to a study by FinExpertiza. A high proportion of borrowed funds remains in the manufacturing industry — 59%. Within this segment, credit resources are most actively used by enterprises engaged in the repair of machinery and equipment. More than half of the capital at the expense of borrowed funds is also formed by companies in the scientific and technical sphere, the hotel and restaurant business, as well as the real estate market.
Public administration and social security organizations have the least borrowed funds — 13%. Personal services, education, water supply, culture, sports and entertainment also have low values (20-30%).
At the same time, in 50 regions of Russia, the share of borrowed funds in the capital of enterprises exceeded 50%. The highest rate was recorded in Ingushetia — 123%. As the analysts explained, a value above 100% indicates that the companies' liabilities exceed the value of their assets. In other words, even the full sale of the property would not allow the business to pay off its debts in full, which makes it particularly dependent on loans, investments and other external sources of financing.
A similar situation has developed in Kabardino-Balkaria — 103%. In Chechnya, the figure has almost reached 100%. In all three regions, the situation in energy, heat and gas supply is the most difficult.
At the same time, in 35 regions, companies mostly managed with their own funds: the share of borrowed capital there did not exceed 50%. Altai business turned out to be the most independent — 17%. Analysts attribute this to the structure of the region's economy and the high proportion of profitable companies in key industries. There was also a low dependence on external financing in the Khanty—Mansi Autonomous Okrug — 18% and the Kaluga Region - 22%.
What is the price of business caution?
On the one hand, a decrease in business credit dependence can be considered a good signal: otherwise, the market could face an increase in bankruptcies and defaults, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. Companies have become more cautious about debt and are more likely to rely on their own funds after a period of expensive money, she said.
But there is a downside. Credit is not only a debt, but also the "fuel of development" of the economy, said Daniil Gonenko, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector at the Presidential Academy. When money is too expensive, a business postpones modernization, cuts costs, and thinks not about growth, but about current work. Therefore, deleveraging could mean weak investments in expansion, technology and productivity, he said.
Pavel Samiev, a member of the Presidium of Opora Russia and chairman of the Financial Markets Committee, believes that another factor is the compression of the loan supply. According to him, banks are more actively restructuring old debts, but they are more careful about issuing long-term loans. This means that some companies are now trying to prevent delays and bankruptcy, rather than raising money for development, the expert noted.
This threatens the economy with a slower renewal of funds, the introduction of technology, business expansion and job creation, according to Sergey Katyrin from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He noted that industry, construction, transport and trade are particularly sensitive. This may be reflected in the labor market by more cautious hiring and weak wage indexation, Daniil Gonenko added.
Businesses will start taking out loans for development more actively with a more noticeable reduction in the rate, steady demand and clear rules of the game. According to Olga Belenkaya, demand for long-term loans may revive at a rate of about 10-12% and reduced uncertainty over a three- to five-year horizon. Sergey Katyrin considers the level of 8-10% to be comfortable for investments, while Natalia Milchakova considers it below 10%, and 7-8% is better. Under such conditions, Freedom Global expects investment growth of 3-5% in 2027.
Thus, reducing business dependence on loans does not look like an unambiguous recovery, but rather like a cautious pause before a new investment cycle. For the economy, this means that the safety margin of some enterprises may increase, but the rate of production renewal and job creation may decrease. Therefore, it is now important that credit again becomes not a way for businesses to survive, but a growth tool.
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