Breaking the front: Is the US capable of containing Israel in Lebanon
The US-Iranian memorandum is being tested for strength: June 19 was marked by a powerful escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. There are dead people on both sides. Strategically, West Jerusalem does not intend to retreat: Benjamin Netanyahu's adviser Dmitry Gendelman told Izvestia that Israel "needs a security zone in southern Lebanon." The Iranian Foreign Ministry has already condemned the Israeli attacks and, according to media reports, even suspended the upcoming negotiations with the United States. In order to save the agreement, the White House could theoretically deprive an ally of crucial weapons, but the pro-Israel lobby still has too much influence. Izvestia investigated what levers Washington has and whether the memorandum will survive the 60 days allotted to it.
Israel and Hezbollah escalated
The memorandum between the United States and Iran, according to one version, requires the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. At least, Tehran has repeatedly insisted on this as an essential element of the settlement. Obviously, it did not work out to comply with the agreement. Hezbollah militants attacked an Israeli tank— killing four soldiers. In Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition, the right flank immediately demanded a full-scale war. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said that "all of Lebanon must burn" and that "for every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers should cry." Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for "speaking the language of fire."
At the same time, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health on June 19, at least 47 people, including women and children, became victims of Israeli air strikes during the day. The IDF called it "a reaction to repeated violations of the ceasefire."
From the very beginning, Israel did not recognize the "Lebanese article" of the memorandum. Even at the stage of approving the document, Netanyahu, according to media reports, informed Trump that the Jewish state was not bound by his terms regarding Lebanon. Dmitry Gendelman, adviser to the Prime Minister, outlined the future plans of the Israeli government.
— It is the responsibility of the Government of Israel to ensure the security and prosperity of the north of our country. This requires a security zone in southern Lebanon, and we will remain there as long as our interests require," he told Izvestia.
So far, according to Netanyahu, the army has delivered a powerful strike against 150 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. At the same time, an Israeli source told CNN that the prime minister was not planning any further attacks. It is significant that this time the IDF limited its strikes to targets in the Bekaa Valley, without touching the southern suburbs of Beirut, as it did a week ago. Expanding the geography of strikes now, immediately after the signing of the memorandum, would mean a direct escalation and an inevitable response from Iran.
The current escalation dates back to November 2025, when fighting broke out with renewed vigor after the assassination of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Dahiya. Already on March 16, the IDF launched a full-scale ground operation, and by May, Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River, gaining a foothold on its northern bank. By June, an impressive part of the south of the country was under Israeli control — about 2 thousand square kilometers, which is almost a fifth of the entire Lebanese territory. And this is despite the truce concluded in the spring and even extended between Israel and Lebanon.
The argument does not change for West Jerusalem: Hezbollah has not fulfilled the terms of the previous truce on the withdrawal of forces beyond Litani, let alone disarmament. On this basis, Israel conducts preventive cleansing of territories beyond the control of the Lebanese Government.
Meanwhile, Iran is skillfully playing the Lebanese card, blocking planned contacts in Switzerland. According to media reports, Tehran demanded guarantees of a cessation of hostilities for talks with US Vice President Jay Dee Vance after the memorandum. Vance did cancel the trip and even publicly rebuked an ally: "If I were in the Israeli government, I would not attack the only powerful ally I have left in the world." The point is that some Israeli officials opposed the agreement reached, that is, in fact, against Trump.
Can the United States stop Israel
Israel's actions have long irritated the American president. Back on June 1, after the previous round of escalation, Trump had an extremely tough telephone conversation with Netanyahu. "There will be no troops in Beirut," and the units that have already been deployed will be "deployed back," he told Truth Social. After the June 19 strikes, the United States allegedly put pressure on its ally again through diplomatic channels, and by evening, according to multiple sources, Netanyahu had agreed to return to the ceasefire.
The memorandum, on which the White House made a personal bet, actually turned into a stress test: is Washington able to control its main Middle Eastern partner? Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and INF expert, believes that the Trump administration has enough trumps.
— The United States has levers of influence on Israel, but they do not fully use them. This is both military and financial assistance. However, Netanyahu is an experienced politician, he understands that Trump cannot be trifled with like fire. Therefore, the stubbornness of the Israeli prime minister will not last long, and it is quite possible that at least for a while the fighting on the Israeli-Lebanese border will stop," the expert told Izvestia.
The possibility of using these levers, however, is limited. Alexey Arbatov, head of the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, is skeptical.
"The American political elite, business, and Congress have too strong a pro—Israel lobby, and a bipartisan one at that," he explained to Izvestia.
In addition, West Jerusalem is diversifying risks: in particular, Germany accounts for 31% of Israeli arms imports — almost a third, making Berlin the second most important supplier after Washington. In parallel, since October 2023, Israel has significantly increased the capacity of its own military-industrial complex.
— Israel has its own view on the problem, and it persists regardless of its relations with the United States. Washington's desire and ability to influence its ally's policies are limited. This is a serious obstacle to the current agreements with Iran," Prokhor Tebin, a researcher at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
Nevertheless, Israel's possibilities are not unlimited. The war of attrition on several fronts has accelerated the country's defense budget to a record $45 billion, an absolute historical maximum approved by the Knesset on March 30, 2026. And the workload is not getting any less: having barely emerged from the active phase of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel is simultaneously conducting a ground operation in southern Lebanon, practicing strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen and Syrian infrastructure, and last June went through a 12-day war with Iran. Without a large—scale flow of American ammunition — since October 2023, Washington has approved more than 100 separate arms deals for Israel - it would be physically impossible to maintain such an intensity.
Yielding to Washington's pressure, Netanyahu returned to the ceasefire, but he does not intend to abandon the cleansing of southern Lebanon. Experts agree on one thing: the 60 days allotted by the memorandum for negotiations will be held in a powder keg mode.
— There will still be disruptions, and the truce will turn out to be very shaky. The negotiations are going to be difficult, and there are many controversial issues. Violations will occur — it's another matter to what extent and how the parties will react to this. The truce has been violated before, but by mutual agreement they turned a blind eye to many things," Elena Suponina summed up.
Obviously, it turned out to be easier for Washington to come to an agreement with the enemy than to restrain an ally. Iran, at least so far, has agreed to the terms of the memorandum, while Israel openly declares that it is not going to withdraw from southern Lebanon. And now the fate of the agreement depends not on Tehran, but on whether the White House is ready to seriously put pressure on West Jerusalem. However, Hezbollah will not stand aside and is unlikely to miss the chance to maintain the status quo or even strengthen, if the situation allows it.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
