Double blow: Escalation in Lebanon inflames Iran-Israel conflict
Israel and Iran are teetering on the brink of a new full-scale conflict, exchanging short-term but sensitive blows for several days. The IDF says it has intercepted missiles not only from Iran, but also from Yemen, and predicts an expansion of attacks from other pro-Iranian forces. Israel sees the changing situation as a threat to national interests and, despite the formal effect of the regime of silence in Lebanon and disagreements with the United States, is ready to continue to strike at Hezbollah. At the same time, Beirut believes that Russia could play a constructive role in resolving the complicated crisis and leading its participants out of the impasse, Lebanese Ambassador to Russia Shawki Saleh Azzam told Izvestia.
Iran and Israel have escalated the escalation
Tensions have been high between Israel and Iran for several days due to the military activity of the parties. The starting point of the current crisis was the Israeli army air raid on June 7 on facilities in Beirut that allegedly belonged to Hezbollah. One civilian was killed in the strikes, and another half dozen were injured.
The incident led to a reaction from Iran, which had previously repeatedly promised to resume strikes on the territory of the Jewish state if the ceasefire in Lebanon was violated. The aerospace forces of the Islamic Republic launched at least 20 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (MRBMS) and several kamikaze UAVs towards Israel, some of which, according to indirect data, were able to hit the declared targets. Israel responded in kind, attacking military factories, air defense complexes, and launch sites.
In addition, as a result of the IDF Air Force raid, the refinery in Ahvaz was hit. The attack on him was the crossing of another Iranian red line — in April 2026, the parties informally agreed to refrain from attacks on the energy complex, and at the last negotiations, American representatives offered similar guarantees to Tehran.
In response to the escalation, Iran launched a dozen more MRBMS towards Israel. This time it was with the support of the missile forces of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement. As the official representative of the Houthis, Yahya Sari, later noted, the main target of the joint "wave of retaliation" were the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, as well as the "bases of aggressors in the region" (including the Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia).
Israel did not respond to the incident. Subsequently, the Israeli Channel 12, citing a senior official, said that the IDF, at Trump's request, had stopped attacking Iran. This step was presented as a gesture of goodwill aimed at breaking the "vicious circle of escalation."
At the same time, Iran directly informed its opponents that new attempts to attack critical infrastructure on the territory of the Islamic Republic would no longer entail a mirror, but a larger-scale response. "We warn you: by committing actions against civilian targets and attacking oil companies, the Israeli enemy has started a dangerous game, the scale of which will cover all energy facilities in the region," the IRGC said in an official statement.
The US is trying to distance itself from the crisis
Despite the fact that the June incident is the first major exchange of blows between Iran and Israel since the truce was concluded in April 2026, it did not lead to a rapid resumption of hostilities and the return of the United States to them. Rather, on the contrary, the White House took an emphatically neutral position and even tried to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from retaliating.
At the same time, the main focus in the speeches of US President Donald Trump shifted to the proximity to finalizing the deal with Tehran, and the exchange of blows between Iran and Israel allegedly did not shake this trend. "What I would advise Iran is that you have launched your missiles, that is enough. Go back to the negotiating table and make a deal. This [situation] will have no impact on our deal," the Republican said at a briefing.
At the same time, Trump told reporters that the Israeli prime minister "will have no choice" but to accept the agreement with Iran.
Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev, in an interview with Izvestia, noted in this regard that the escalation in the Middle East, although it differs little from previous incidents in technical terms, actually causes much greater ideological damage to the main mediator in the face of the United States.
— A new round of escalation, by an unfortunate coincidence, coincided with a phase of active attempts by the United States to resolve its own tensions with Tehran and develop a permanent mechanism for guarantees. In this regard, the aggravation acquires a special, painful characteristic, at least for Washington, which, having got involved in the Iranian adventure, faced a lot of problems, both military-technical and financial, and directly domestic political, the expert specified.
At the same time, despite constant rebukes from the White House, Israel's official position has not changed. They still claim that any shelling of its territory by Lebanon will entail an immediate retaliatory strike. This includes the Shiite neighborhood of Dahiya in Beirut, which the United States and Iran are seeking to bring to a neutral zone as part of a policy of detente. This approach is beneficial for Iran, since Hezbollah's command centers are located here. Israel, accordingly, opposes such a decision.
On the other hand, Israel also does not seek escalation for the sake of escalation and tries to avoid controversial incidents, at least in dialogue with official Beirut. For example, after a targeted attack on a motorcade of the Lebanese Armed Forces near the village of Tibnit, which killed a major general of the Lebanese army, the IDF General Staff launched an internal investigation and issued an official apology to its Lebanese colleagues through closed channels. This move was probably meant to emphasize the willingness of the Jewish state to cooperate with the official Lebanese authorities to jointly neutralize Hezbollah.
However, Beirut interprets the actions of the Israelis differently. According to Lebanese Ambassador to Russia Shawki Saleh Azzam, the IDF's activities are rather destructive and do not contribute to the rapid withdrawal of the country from the crisis.
— Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a difficult situation. Israel still occupies vast territories and continues its aggression against the country," the diplomat said.
Russia needs to be more actively involved in the settlement.
The events of recent days have significantly lowered public expectations of the negotiations between Tehran and Washington. And although the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Bagai, insists that the negotiation process with the United States has not stopped, despite the Israeli strikes on the territory of his state, the interaction of the parties is perceived rather as ineffective. Especially considering that Israel is outside the main framework of the settlement.
— Despite Israel's positioning as a junior partner of the United States, it is guided by its own interests. And it is increasingly going against Washington. As a result, any promises that Trump makes to the Iranians on Lebanon and other sensitive issues can be unilaterally reset by Israel. Trump does not have effective tools to deter Netanyahu, no matter how much he boasts," political analyst Advan Hisham explained to Izvestia.
The Iranian side is interested in forming a sustainable guarantee mechanism. And he sees this as an achievable goal, especially if significant mediators are involved in the issue. First of all, Russia, which has already accumulated experience in solving complex Middle East crises. However, as the Iranian Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, stated earlier in an interview with Izvestia, the American leadership is being selfish in this matter and does not allow other participants to reach a real settlement.
— We have always used the positive role of the Russian Federation in any negotiation process. In fact, we were ready to invite our Russian colleagues to resolve this issue. But Donald Trump and the Americans were not interested in this," the ambassador noted.
A similar situation may develop with Lebanon, especially if the focus is not on the result, but on the process of peacemaking. At the same time, there is a request from Beirut for a more active involvement of Moscow. Moreover, as Shawki Saleh Azzam noted, Russia, as a great power, is already playing an important and useful role in finding a solution to the current situation, and its experience is in demand.
— I am in constant contact with the Russian authorities and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. We closely coordinate our actions as the governments of the two countries, and we always see Russia's support, because it takes a very clear and firm position in support of Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it has a long history of supporting us and my country's legitimate cause at the international level, especially in the UN Security Council," Azzam stressed..
The overall situation remains uncertain. Despite Trump's promises to keep the situation in the Middle East under control, the degree of tension is growing, and attempts to withdraw Lebanon from the conflict zone are failing. Moreover, given the accumulated contradictions, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the parties to the conflict to limit themselves to low-power and symbolic strikes, which increases the risk of a resumption of intense hostilities.
In these circumstances, the United States is faced with a choice: either involve other reputable mediators in the settlement (and thereby dilute its own contribution), or continue to act solo, but with a high risk of ending up without a deal. But judging by Trump's actions, he continues to believe in the success of the current negotiating model and does not intend to abandon it.
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