Enemy in the State: relations between the United States and Mexico have fallen to a critical level

The conflict between the United States and Mexico is escalating. Donald Trump accused Mexico City of actually capitulating to the drug cartels. To combat them, Washington may propose a military operation following the example of Ecuador, experts say. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum is only ready to coordinate efforts, but will not allow foreign military intervention on the territory of the country. Moreover, according to her, it is the States that arm the groups. The situation was aggravated by the news about a secret CIA operation against drug lords, which was conducted without the consent of the Mexican authorities. Against this background, the EU is trying to blame Russia for supporting Latin American cartels, allegedly to destabilize the United States. The Russian Embassy in Mexico categorically rejected these accusations in a comment to Izvestia.

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The aggravation of relations between the United States and Mexico

The murders and arrests of the leaders of the criminal world in Mexico provoked protracted wars between drug cartels for the redistribution of spheres of influence. According to US President Donald Trump, Mexico City has already completely lost control of security: the country is actually run by drug cartels, and its president, Sheinbaum, is a "scared woman."

The situation has been heating up since the beginning of the year. In February, Mexican military special forces, with the support of U.S. intelligence, eliminated Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the head of one of the country's largest syndicates, the New Generation of Jalisco, in the city of Tapalpa. His death caused a wave of riots throughout the republic. The cartel's militants blocked highways, massively seized buses and trucks, and set up over 250 checkpoints, setting fire to vehicles and scattering spikes. To restore control, the authorities urgently deployed the army and the National Guard.

The situation has become particularly explosive in the north-west of the country, near the Mexican-American border. After the arrest in the United States of the co-founder of the Sinaloa cartel, Ismael Zambada, the syndicate split into two warring factions. Now they earn money for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through the sale of illegal substances and brothels, as well as through legal business - on the eve of the World Cup, crime bought hotels near stadiums and rents rooms to tourists at exorbitant prices.

Trump is right in his assessment of the situation in Mexico, the director general of the Latin American Cultural Center told Izvestia. Hugo Chavez by Egor Lidovskaya. He noted that the cartels gained strength during a period when the country had long been ruled by right-wing governments friendly to Washington.

Until the end of the 1980s, Mexico had a rigid vertical of power under the control of the Institutional Revolutionary Party. And the authorities, in a sense, managed to "control" crime: gang members paid their share to corrupt officials and did not dare to terrorize the streets. With the rise to power of the right-wing PAN party in 2000, large-scale privatization and decentralization began. Cartels grew from smugglers into multinational corporations, which themselves began to dictate terms to the authorities.

The establishment of a free trade zone between the United States, Canada and Mexico was positioned by the right-wing elites as an economic breakthrough. However, it has become a gold mine for the criminal world. A flood of cheap American corn and subsidized agricultural products poured south, instantly ruining millions of Mexican farmers. Having lost their legal income, they massively went to work for drug cartels, switching to growing marijuana and opium poppies.

The second turning point that entrenched the violence was the decision of President Felipe Calderon, who ruled in 2006-2012, to declare war on the cartels and bring the army to the streets. The targeted destruction of drug lords led to the "hydra effect." Instead of predictable syndicates, dozens of small, extremely violent and unruly gangs have emerged, starting a war of "all against all."

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The possibility of U.S. troops entering Mexico

Theoretically, Trump can implement the Ecuadorian scenario of combating organized crime in Mexico. On March 3, 2026, the United States, together with the government of President Daniel Noboa, launched a large-scale military campaign against local gangs, which continues to this day. However, Noboa himself called on Washington to send troops. Sheinbaum, on the other hand, takes the opposite position. She stressed her willingness to coordinate efforts in the fight against crime, but completely ruled out any interference by the United States on the territory of the country: "The sovereignty of Mexico is not being discussed." Moreover, the president has repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that a significant part of the weapons go to Mexico through the States. Therefore, direct U.S. intervention is unlikely, said Dmitry Rosenthal, Director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— Mexico and the United States have a lot of intersections in domestic and foreign policy. Therefore, Trump will put pressure and threaten, which he is doing now, but it is not in his interests to start military operations," the expert stressed.

Mexico is the main trading partner of the United States. The trade turnover exceeds $800 billion per year. The American automotive, aircraft, and electronics industries are critically dependent on Mexican factories. Any military conflict will instantly shut down businesses in the United States, especially in the Texas border region, and provoke an increase in inflation. The second important factor is demography. About 38 million people of Mexican descent live in the United States. Aggression against their historical homeland will inevitably cause large-scale protests that can completely paralyze the southern states. In addition, the next fighting after the hard-won agreement with Iran is likely to hit Trump's already low ratings.

Nevertheless, Washington is already conducting secret raids in Mexico. On April 19, an American SUV left the road and fell into a ravine. Four people died in the car crash, including two US citizens who, according to leading American media, turned out to be CIA operatives. They operated in the country autonomously, without notifying the federal Government of the Republic. Sheinbaum publicly announced the launch of an official investigation into the legality of these actions and sent a harsh diplomatic note to Washington. She had to quickly "extinguish" the internal political fire, as the opposition accused her of surrendering sovereignty. This was the turning point that strained relations between the leaders of the United States and Mexico to the limit.

The European Union's accusations of Russia's assistance to drug cartels

The EU is also adding fuel to the fire. The Bulgarian Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) has published a report titled "Shadow Alliances," which accuses Russia of using Latin American drug cartels to undermine U.S. security. It is noteworthy that the authors put forward these theses in the absence of official claims against Moscow from both Washington and Mexico City.

According to these analysts, an axis has formed in Latin America consisting of Russia, China and Iran, which allegedly divided the spheres of interaction with the criminal world. It is alleged that the GRU has expanded its presence in Mexico City under diplomatic cover: Russian operatives allegedly supply the cartels with radio interception data and satellite images recording the movements of US agents, American border guards and drones on the southern border. Moreover, through logistical channels in Venezuela and Nicaragua, Mexican militants are supplied with Russian small arms, grenade launchers and anti-tank systems, which are then used in urban battles against the regular army, according to the report. According to European analysts, the ultimate goal of Moscow, Beijing and Tehran is to flood the United States with drugs and force the White House to wage a hybrid war on two fronts.

The Russian Embassy in Mexico, in a commentary to Izvestia, called these accusations absurd.

— We will not reproduce the logic applied here, if I may say so, by the researchers of the center. It seems that it is built precisely under the influence of the very substances that the report seems to be dedicated to combating. The field of activity here is seen to be more for doctors than analysts," the diplomats stressed.

The release of the report coincides with a series of scandals in Mexico surrounding covert CIA operations, the embassy added. According to them, the document's customers are trying to shift the attention of the Mexican public from the real problems and actions of Washington, simultaneously attacking their political opponents.

"We hope that our Mexican partners, with their usual objectivity, will understand the background of another anti—Russian provocation and will not allow it to have a destructive effect on public opinion in their country, thereby fully defending their sovereignty and invulnerability to destructive outside influence," the embassy concluded.

The EU is also using this report to manipulate Trump, Lidovskaya believes. According to him, the European elites expect to push the American leader to more actively support Ukraine in order to reduce their financial and military burden. The European Union considers the current head of the White House to be more susceptible to such arguments and will continue to use information campaigns to their advantage, the expert concluded.

If the escalation continues, Mexico risks coming under even stronger pressure from the United States, from political blackmail to new sanctions and power levers. For Washington, this means new risks on the southern border and a blow to its own economy, which is closely tied to Mexican supply chains. And for Russia, it is an opportunity to strengthen contacts with Mexico City as an independent player, which is increasingly looking for ways to pursue an independent foreign policy.