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- Money per barrel: falling oil prices will keep additional budget revenues at 800 billion
Money per barrel: falling oil prices will keep additional budget revenues at 800 billion
Additional budget revenues will remain at the level of 800 billion — 1 trillion rubles, despite the fall in the cost of oil by a third in a month, experts and analysts polled by Izvestia believe. Urals prices are still exceeding the budgeted target of $59 per barrel. Since May 18, the cost of Russian raw materials has decreased by 36%, to $63.6 per barrel, and Brent — by 29%, to $77 per barrel. This happened against the background of news about the discussion of a peace treaty between the United States and Iran. Analysts do not rule out that oil prices will remain approximately at current levels while maintaining the OPEC+ deal and taking into account increased demand, which is associated with the desire of importers, including the United States and the EU, to purchase oil not only for current consumption, but also to replenish storage facilities.
How will the situation on the oil market affect the Russian budget
Against the background of negotiations between the United States and Iran, the price of Brent crude oil futures has decreased by 28.64% since mid-May and reached $77.1 per barrel by 17:00 Moscow time on June 18. At the same time, after the announcement by US President Donald Trump on the night of June 15 about reaching an agreement with Tehran, the decline accelerated: the price of Brent lost about 11% more in less than four days. The average price of Urals oil, which is taken into account when forming the Russian budget, decreased by about 36% over the same period, to $63.6 per barrel by the evening of June 18.
Despite the drop in oil prices, the budget of the Russian Federation in 2026 may maintain additional oil and gas revenues at the level of about 800 billion — 1 trillion rubles. Such a scenario looks quite realistic, says Pavel Sevostyanov, Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to him, even after the recent correction, Russian oil remains above the budgeted target of $59 per barrel, which means that a source of super-planned revenue remains.
Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov shares a similar assessment. He recalled that about 783 billion rubles of additional oil and gas revenues have already been allocated in the current budget. According to him, high commodity prices in previous months will continue to fuel earnings even after the market correction.
However, experts' estimates regarding the amount of additional revenue vary. A more cautious forecast is given by the financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. In his opinion, it is premature to count on additional income in the amount of 1 trillion rubles, but revenues in the range of 600 billion rubles remain quite achievable. He recalled that every dollar lost in the cost of oil means a reduction in oil and gas revenues by about 150-160 billion for the budget.
Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, noted that oil and gas revenues were growing even during a period of declining production and a strong ruble. At the same time, Vladimir Chernov stressed that it is the ruble value of a barrel that is critical for the treasury, therefore, both world prices, the exchange rate, and the Urals discount to Brent have an impact.
An additional factor remains the specifics of taxation and budget payments. Tamara Safonova, associate Professor at the Presidential Academy, recalled that in January –May, the Urals price was 17% higher than last year, but oil and gas budget revenues decreased by 30% over the same period. According to her, the result was influenced by both significant discounts on Russian oil at the beginning of the year and an increase in budget subsidies to oil companies.
What is happening in the oil market and what will be the dynamics of prices for raw materials
Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technology for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, drew attention to the fact that we are talking about a rapid decline, primarily in futures prices (while the benchmark for physical supplies of Dated Brent remained noticeably higher than futures on June 18 — $87.5–88 per barrel).
At the same time, sanctions against Iran are expected to be eased or completely lifted, which will allow Tehran to receive more revenue per barrel and, accordingly, invest more in production growth, said Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund.
Moreover, according to the analyst, there is a risk of the collapse of the alliance's deal itself, since the UAE has already withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+, and Venezuela, which is also not burdened with production quota restrictions, is gradually increasing production. In this case, the situation is complicated by the high cost.
"In this scenario, millions of additional barrels per day will enter the global market within a few months, the deficit will be replaced by a surplus and even overproduction, which could bring down prices to $30-40 per barrel of Brent,— Igor Yushkov believes. — Subsequently, the market will begin to balance by reducing production by producers with high production costs, but this will be a price shock for all exporters.
If the OPEC+ deal is maintained and taking into account increased demand, which is associated with the desire of importers (including the United States and the EU) to purchase oil not only for current consumption, but also to replenish storage facilities, it will be possible to see Brent at a price of $ 70-80 per barrel, the expert predicts. Urals prices will decrease synchronously with other grades, he believes.
According to Argus data, in the first half of June, the discount on the Urals FOB quotation (after loading onto the ship, the buyer takes risks and costs) in the port of Primorsk to the Severomorsky dated quotation, which includes a basket of six grades of oil, including Brent, increased from $22.5 to $23.5 compared to May. per barrel.
According to Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Foundation and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, if there are problems with the deal between the United States and Iran, prices may go up again, which will also be facilitated by the restoration of oil reserves. The analyst expects that the average price of Brent by the end of 2026 will be approximately $70-75 per barrel, which is significantly higher than the average of $58-59 by the end of 2025. However, this means that oil may fall below the predicted range, for example, this fall.
Active purchases to replenish the strategic reserves of key global importers will support prices until they reach the target filling levels, while at any moment there is a risk of renewed conflict, Vyacheslav Mishchenko believes. Therefore, the corridor of $ 70-80 per barrel of Brent by the end of 2026 looks realistic, the expert believes.
According to Nikolay Dudchenko's forecast, by the end of the year, Brent is likely to be in the range of $ 75-85 per barrel, and Urals — in the range of $ 65-75. A similar scenario is expected by Vladimir Chernov, who predicts Brent at $ 72-80, and Russian oil in the range of $ 60-70 per barrel.
Pavel Sevostyanov believes that the range of $75-85 per barrel for Brent and $63-70 for Urals looks the most likely in the coming months. Mikhail Nikitin, Head of International Business and Finance Practice and partner of 5D Consulting, has a similar scenario: $75-82 per barrel for Brent and $60-67 for Urals.
This means that Russian oil will remain close to the budget target of $59 per barrel, maintaining a minimal but still positive margin of safety for oil and gas revenues.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation believes that it is too early to predict the volume of additional oil and gas revenues by the end of 2026. The ministry told Izvestia that the receipts will largely depend on the situation on the global oil market and the foreign economic situation in general. At the same time, the ministry stressed that the current budget rule makes it possible to smooth out the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices and maintain the stability of state finances.
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