Price is being monitored: the United States may ease pressure on Russia

The last U.S. license for oil supplies from Russia expired on June 17. The relief has been in effect since March. Further, as stated by US President Trump, everything will depend on the dynamics of oil prices. However, analysts are confident that the United States will exercise maximum caution: the market has not yet "moved away" from Hormuz. Izvestia found out the details.

"It helped"

The crisis in the Persian Gulf has blocked up to 20% of global oil supplies, and commodity prices have skyrocketed. In order to contain the price rally, the US Treasury eased sanctions on Russian oil in March: it allowed operations with shipments of Russian oil loaded into tankers until March 12 until April 11. Later, the relief was extended.

The latest license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department allowed operations for the delivery, sale and unloading of Russian oil and petroleum products shipped before April 17 (valid until June 17, 2026). It was extended to balance the global market against the backdrop of the escalation in the Middle East and to prevent a sharp shortage of fuel due to stalled transit volumes.

"Given that the market has lost about 8 million barrels of oil per day due to the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these Russian resources will help mitigate the shortage," said Kyle Shostak, director of the American investment company Navigator Principal Investors.

Well earned

Russia benefited from these concessions. Combined with the jump in oil prices, the increase in revenues from oil exports turned out to be twofold in March. 19.04 billion dollars, 9.7 billion more than in February, and 4.76 billion more than a year earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated. In physical terms, it is 7.13 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day.

In addition, Russian fuel prices rose significantly to $78.38 per barrel, and Urals was even sold at a premium to the Brent benchmark.

Taking advantage of the easing of sanctions by the United States, India has noticeably increased purchases in Russia: up to two million barrels per day (February figure — 1.07 million). Exports to China remained at a consistently high level — about 1.8 million barrels per day.

As soon as possible

As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated in early June, the United States' license to supply oil from Russia benefits "some countries." The United States itself, according to him, does not need it. But he recalled that the measure was temporary, and the United States would like to stop renewing licenses as soon as possible.

The last US license, which allowed operations for the supply of oil and petroleum products from Russia, expired on June 17.

Trump said that the restoration of US sanctions against Russian oil is already being considered, further actions will depend on the dynamics of oil prices.

"Let's see how low oil prices will fall," he said during a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in France.

Maximum caution

Obviously, the United States will exercise maximum caution in this matter. Moreover, oil prices are not expected to fall yet. The full restoration of Middle Eastern supplies can be expected no earlier than the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

The key contradiction for the Trump administration is the need to simultaneously put pressure on Russia in the context of geopolitics, and to restrain inflation in the United States and gasoline prices.

In addition, US domestic strategic oil reserves have reached a record low of 330 million barrels. In other words, this mechanism of influencing the market by releasing additional barrels from the reserve has been exhausted.

Precarious situation

According to Olga Veretennikova, vice president of the Borsell analytical company, the United States can begin to act already when the price of Brent crude oil is above $ 85-90 per barrel. However, these will only be targeted sanctions against individual vessels, traders, insurers, and intermediaries, but without a total blockade of maritime supplies. But with Brent prices moving closer to $70-80, the space for tightening will expand.

Analysts see $65-75 per barrel of Brent as the most likely "working" corridor in which Trump can begin to "tighten the screws."

The real price "Overton window" for the United States is $70-73 per barrel. In this case, a balance of export flows and domestic demand for petroleum products will be achieved, says Pavel Maryshev, a member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society.

The return of the Brent price to the range of 65-67 dollars is already a direct way to expand sanctions restrictions: American exporters are not interested in further price reductions.

There is no "crime"

The restoration of sanctions, primarily secondary threats against buyers and insurers, threatens to reduce the volume of supplies to key Russian customers — India, China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Buyers will begin to actively return to supplies from the Persian Gulf countries that do not carry the risks of secondary sanctions.

However, experts believe that the effect will not be too dramatic: the main importers of Russian oil and petroleum products are still strongly interested in diversifying supplies in order to mitigate logistical risks.

— The negative effect on Russian exports will, firstly, have a limited effect — Russian companies have already reserved part of the market. Secondly, the effect is delayed — the period of filling strategic reserves will last at least until the end of 2026," Pavel Maryshev points out.

In addition, the "shadow fleet" transporting sanctioned oil is in full readiness.

The episodic collisions around the "shadow" tankers do not change the overall picture. This is because the market, including the United States and the EU, is directly interested in the presence of Russian oil, the analyst emphasizes.

Experts do not expect a dramatic expansion of discounts on Russian oil for Asian customers.

As Yuri Mishukov, director of the investment department of NPF Gazfond PN, points out, discounts in the Asian direction will narrow, but the balance is being formed at the junction of factors. On the one hand, there are sanctions risks and supply insurance, on the other hand, there are demand conditions and the marginality of processing among buyers.

Thus, the analyst explains, in the event of increased sanctions pressure, a short-term expansion of the discount is likely, but as supply chains adapt, it will partially stabilize.