Union conversation: The EAEU is considering several applications for observer status

The EAEU is coordinating a package of applications for observer status, including from Nicaragua, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin told Izvestia. Experts admit the emergence of new partners in the future for five to ten years, but they do not expect a full–fledged expansion of the union in the near future. The situation is complicated by internal contradictions within the "five" themselves: Armenia's policy of rapprochement with the EU and the difficult geopolitical situation in the international arena.

Who wants to become an observer in the EAEU

The EAEU is preparing to expand the range of partners. Currently, five participating states - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia — are studying a package of applications from potential observers.

— There are several applications from countries for observer status, they are considered in accordance with the procedure of the Eurasian Economic Union. As you know, consensus is required, the consent of all five parties," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin told Izvestia.

Although this format does not allow participation in voting, it gives the right to attend meetings of the EAEU bodies by invitation. In fact, we are talking about a preliminary stage of integration, which allows us to evaluate all the advantages of the union from the inside.

The approval of the applications will provide countries with a gentle rapprochement with the association: they will be able to study in detail the rules of the common market, prepare joint economic projects and strengthen contacts. The five have, in particular, a request from Nicaragua on the table.

— Nicaragua is not alone, it is in a group of applications. We'll look further, we'll have discussions with our partners," Pankin added.

Earlier, the media reported that Myanmar and Venezuela also showed interest in the EAEU.

For Managua, it is due to active foreign trade and strong ties with the five countries, Daria Mitina, an economist and chairman of the Independent Trade Union Novy Trud, explained to Izvestia. In particular, the Latin American country is extremely interested in supplying Belarusian potatoes and developing its own agricultural sector with the support of Minsk specialists.

— In addition, Nicaragua has an interest in cooperation in the field of vaccines. The pharmaceutical industry in this country is quite developed, as well as in Cuba. Therefore, in the case of Nicaragua and Cuba, we can talk about an understandable exchange: drugs, pharmaceuticals, food, energy, agriculture," she added.

Experts also consider Myanmar's application to be quite real. Russia has long been developing close contacts with this country, and the Prime Minister of the Asian state, Min Aung Hlaing, previously announced his intention to expand trade and economic ties with the union and asked to speed up the procedure for obtaining observer status.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's request actually hung in the air. Her application became known in December 2025, shortly before the January kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro. After this American operation, the future foreign policy course of Caracas remains vague.

— It seems that the country is now completely under the influence of the United States. Therefore, I think that, most likely, this application is unlikely to be considered," Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

All potential observers are united not only by their geographical distance from the Eurasian core, but also by severe external pressure. Nicaragua, Myanmar, and Venezuela are more or less under Western economic sanctions. For these states, the rapprochement with the EAEU is not just a diplomatic maneuver, but a pragmatic attempt to diversify trade, find alternative logistics routes and protect their financial systems. With Washington and Brussels using sanctions as a tool of political blackmail, the Eurasian Union is becoming a platform for the "outcasts" of the Western world to build independent economic ties.

Integration progress: Uzbekistan is ready to join the EAEU as soon as possible

Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Tashkent confirmed that relations between the two countries have reached a new level.

Should we expect the expansion of the EAEU

Currently, four states have observer status at the EAEU.: Moldova, Uzbekistan, Cuba and Iran. At the same time, Chisinau's participation is purely formal: back in 2021, the republic actually froze work in the association and recalled its representative to the EEC.

Uzbekistan is traditionally considered the main contender for full membership in the EAEU. Closer integration of Tashkent has been discussed since at least 2019. However, Tashkent will not force events, and it is not worth waiting for a full–fledged entry in the next three to five years, believes Alexander Korolev, Deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics. According to him, Uzbekistan is comfortable in the role of an observer, which allows it to maintain a multi-vector approach.

— For Uzbekistan, a much more important task now is to join the World Trade Organization. Tashkent sees the WTO as the main foreign economic and foreign policy direction," the expert said.

Tashkent is completely satisfied with the current level of cooperation: key issues are being successfully resolved directly with Russia. Full membership in the EAEU does not seem mandatory to the republic's leadership, and the country is also afraid of direct industrial competition with Kazakhstan.

The prospects for Cuba, which received observer status in 2020, remain vague. Formally, Havana can strengthen ties with the Eurasian Union, but in reality cooperation is severely hampered by US sanctions, logistical leverage and the protracted economic crisis on the island.

Iran's integration faces similar barriers. He could show interest in the union in the face of a difficult internal situation, Korolev believes, but for the EAEU itself, a deep rapprochement with the Islamic Republic is not yet of practical value.

— I do not think that in the coming years we will see the expansion of the EAEU. Perhaps, in the future, a new observer state will appear in five to ten years. Maybe, for example, someone else from Africa will be added. But the main composition of the union has been and will remain," he stressed.

Caucasian captive: Armenia will become dependent on Turkey through the efforts of the EU

What scenarios do the parliament see and why a departure from partnership with Russia will cause irreparable damage to the republic's economy

Problems in the EAEU

At the same time, one of the most acute challenges for the EAEU is Yerevan's drift towards the European Union. In April 2025, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian signed a law on launching the country's accession to the EU. Moscow immediately warned that it was technically impossible to combine European integration and membership in the EAEU. By choosing Brussels, Yerevan risks losing its union preferences, facing duties and revised prices for Russian gas.

However, Armenia's abrupt withdrawal from the EAEU will not happen in the near future, Alexander Korolev believes. In his opinion, while Nikol Pashinyan is in power, targeted attempts at rapprochement with the EU will continue, but deep economic dependence on Russia and the common market will force Yerevan to maintain the current format of integration.

Nevertheless, Armenian suppliers have already faced problems on the Russian border. The restrictions mainly affected the agricultural sector: vegetables, fruits, berries, herbs, wine, brandy and mineral water were banned or heavily monitored by the Rosselkhoznadzor. Officially, Moscow does not call these measures sanctions, but in Yerevan and in the expert community they are unequivocally regarded as a signal of the imminent costs of a political reversal.

— It is quite possible that they will be removed soon. Russia is also not interested in a complete restriction of imports of Armenian products. This, of course, can be considered such an informal sanction, introduced in order to bring the Armenian leadership to reason," Korolev believes.

Ultimately, the current stage of the EAEU's development clearly shows that the union has reached an important crossroads. The pool of applications from Latin American and Asian countries confirms the attractiveness of the Eurasian market in the international arena. However, the geopolitical success of the expansion will depend on whether the "five" are able to put their own house in order. Without resolving acute internal contradictions, from migration disputes to the political struggles of individual participants, it will be difficult for the union to realize its large—scale integration potential.