Crumple restrictions: Russia and Iran coordinate actions at the UN to lift sanctions
Moscow and Tehran are coordinating their actions at the UN to lift all sanctions against Iran, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. They actually secured the support of 16 more States in this matter. A clause on lifting restrictions may also appear in the memorandum that Iran and the United States will sign on June 19 after three and a half months of war. However, given the number of sanctions, this will turn into a very complicated legal process. So far, only targeted energy relief is most likely, which will greatly simplify Iran's oil trade. How realistic this is, what consequences it will lead to, and who besides Tehran itself will benefit from it — in the Izvestia article.
Can all sanctions be lifted from Iran
There are only two days left before the possible outbreak of one of the largest conflicts in the Middle East in recent decades. On June 19, the United States and Iran are preparing to sign an already agreed memorandum of understanding in Geneva. Perhaps one of his most interesting points is the likely lifting of sanctions against Tehran. Without taking into account the concessions made after the 2015 nuclear deal, we can say that the Islamic Republic has existed under strict restrictions since its very foundation, that is, for almost half a century.
A meeting of a Group of Friends in defense of the UN Charter was recently held in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe. In addition to Russia and Iran, 16 other countries, including China, took part in it. One of the constant topics on the Group's agenda is countering illegal sanctions, including against Iran.
— The conversation is about the inadmissibility of unilateral coercive measures. In other words, this work is already underway, and together with Iran, we are working here at the UN site," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
Part of the further political settlement between Tehran and Washington includes the issue of lifting unilateral measures.
— Let's see how it will be implemented, — said Alimov. — We (the UN Charter Protection Group. We advocate the implementation of the principles and provisions of the UN Charter in international relations. And, of course, if these agreements between the United States and Iran are signed and implemented, it will actually fulfill the requirements of the Group in Defense of the UN Charter," the Deputy minister noted.
However, it is hard to believe that Washington and Tehran will publicly compromise on all points: there is still too much uncertainty and contradictions behind closed doors. For example, on the eve of the Geneva meeting, Al Arabiya TV channel published the alleged text of the memorandum with 14 paragraphs. In it, for example, the United States commits itself, together with its regional partners, to create a $300 billion fund to rebuild Iran after the fighting. According to Reuters, half of the funds have allegedly already been allocated by companies from South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and the United States, and Iran will be able to receive them in the form of loans or direct financing for the restoration of infrastructure facilities. But Trump denied this information, saying that the States are not going to invest and there is no fund at all.
By and large, there is no clarity either on the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to the head of the White House, will open just a few days, or even more so on Iran's nuclear program. It is quite obvious that without any guarantees from Tehran, Washington is unlikely to agree to lift the sanctions blockade.
In addition, so far there are no signs that Iran will abandon the support of its allied regional forces — the Yemeni Houthis, Iraqi formations and especially the Hezbollah based in Lebanon. As Naharnet reported on June 17, Israel launched a series of strikes in the south of the country, despite the extended truce. At the same time, the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is one of Iran's permanent conditions for a settlement.
What will happen to the global economy
In general, lifting restrictions still seems to be the most difficult process due to their number. There are more than 6 thousand sanctions against Iran, more only against Russia. The United States provided the lion's share of them, primarily the freezing of Iranian assets and the trade embargo. Then, due to the opaque development of the nuclear program, the UN Security Council joined the restrictions, adopting several resolutions banning the supply of nuclear technology, weapons and freezing the assets of related companies. Later, the European Union imposed an embargo on Iranian oil and disconnected the republic from the SWIFT international settlement system.
In 2015, Iran "exhaled" a little thanks to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the participation of all permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. However, the United States then unilaterally withdrew from the deal and reinstated sanctions, accusing Tehran of failing to comply with the terms of its nuclear program. This was done, by the way, under Trump, which raises well-founded doubts about the strength of the upcoming "peace".
In a future memorandum, Washington allegedly undertakes to stop all types of restrictions against Iran, including all its unilateral sanctions, both primary and secondary, as well as UN Security Council resolutions and decisions of the IAEA Board of Governors. If you believe the leaks in the media, all this is planned to be filmed according to a certain schedule, which will be prescribed when the final agreement is approved.
Theoretically, it will be easiest to lift American sanctions — by decisions of Trump and the Ministry of Finance. The European Union is more sluggish because of the principle of consensus in decision-making.
The cancellation of the UN Security Council resolutions will obviously cause the most difficulties. A new resolution is needed for this. And given the dozens of failed attempts at the UN to adopt at least some resolutions, not to mention the split in the Security Council, technically this will be the biggest challenge.
According to the expert, only the lifting of energy sanctions can be considered realistic in the near future.
"Restrictions on ship chartering, tanker insurance, logistics operations, and financial transactions with the oil industry and hydrocarbons may be lifted," Ekaterina Arapova, head of the research program at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Izvestia.
According to her, there is no question of any cancellation of legal acts regulating the imposition of sanctions. The United States is likely to use a combination of wavers (a tool that allows the president to suspend certain laws for national security reasons) and, based on them, issue general licenses for operations with hydrocarbons, Arapova explained.
Now, even though Iran cannot sell all the oil it can produce due to sanctions, the country is confidently among the top 10 largest exporters. Therefore, the green light on crude oil operations can seriously change not only the economy of the republic, but also the situation on world markets.
— Firstly, Iran can return its reserves blocked abroad (about $100 billion). — Ed.). Secondly, with the lifting of sanctions on oil, it will be possible to sell it to anyone and at the usual market price. Now almost all of its volume is purchased by China, which, in fact, ignores US sanctions and demands a discount from Iran for this. In addition, funds will be available to increase production and development of deposits," Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.
This poses a risk to the global oil market, which requires constant monitoring of what associations such as OPEC and OPEC+ are doing. If Iran increases production after the lifting of sanctions, it will be required to assume some obligations, that is, to limit production, as well as from other participants. If Iran does not do this, it will be a step towards the further collapse of OPEC and OPEC+, the expert warns. By the way, since May 2026, the UAE has already withdrawn from the associations in order not to have any restraints for expanding its production capacities. As a result, the oil market may expect a sharp drop in prices with unpredictable consequences. However, some leading exporters may turn out to be, on the contrary, in the black.
— If sanctions are lifted from Tehran, then it will not make much sense for China to buy Iranian oil. And there will only be one supplier who can give a discount due to the sanctions pressure, and that is Russia. The Americans have already "torn Venezuela away" from China. Moreover, China's increased demand will increase competition for Russian oil with India, which will enable the Russian Federation to reduce the discount," Igor Yushkov explained.
However, do not forget about the US sanctions against Russia. On June 17, the license that allowed the completion of the sale, delivery, and unloading of Russian oil and petroleum products expired. Washington has extended it several times to prevent a collapse in the global energy market due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
Obviously, lifting sanctions against Iran will be met with a lot of "buts." And in a sense, it is precisely the severity and duration of these restrictions that now prevent the Islamic Republic from simply returning to the global economy.
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