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- Hyped Brent: since the beginning of the conflict in Iran, the EU has overpaid €41 billion for fuel
Hyped Brent: since the beginning of the conflict in Iran, the EU has overpaid €41 billion for fuel
Since the beginning of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, EU countries have overpaid about €41 billion for oil and gas, Izvestia estimates. The largest burden fell on Germany (about €8.6 billion), Italy — €6.7 billion and France — €4.6 billion. At the same time, due to interruptions in the work of Hormuz, the Gulf states did not receive about $ 132-135 billion. At the same time, the United States will benefit from the conflict — they have already begun to use the situation on the fuel market to stimulate their energy sector and expand jobs in the country. Whether Russia will benefit from expensive oil and how the global crisis redistributes flows is discussed in the Izvestia article.
How much has the European Union lost from the Iranian conflict
The acute phase of the conflict in the Middle East has been going on for more than 100 days. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global markets began to fever up - Brent crude oil gained more than 20% in 3.5 months and rose to $87 per barrel. It is unclear how long the military clash will last, but US President Donald Trump has announced the possible signing of a peace agreement on June 14.
According to Izvestia, due to the price spike, the EU countries spent an additional 41 euros (about 3.7 trillion rubles) on oil and gas imports.
At the same time, among the major economies, the largest burden fell on Germany — plus €8.6 billion (765 billion rubles), Italy — its overpayment amounted to about € 6.7 billion (almost 600 billion), France — about €4.6 billion (410 billion).
These countries have a well-developed industrial sector, and they remain one of the largest importers of energy resources in the EU, so the rise in oil and gas prices has affected them the most, explained Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. An amount of just over €40 billion would not be a critical blow to the EU budget. However, the increase in costs will be felt by businesses and households, who will have to pay more for energy and related goods and services, the expert added.
Any disruptions in the supply of oil and LNG lead to an increase in the price of raw materials on the world market — this increases household heating costs and increases the costs of European industry, explained Yuri Mavashev, lecturer at the Department of World Politics and World Economy at the RANEPA Institute of Management.
Another risk is related to logistics. As shown by the attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the subsequent escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf, carriers have to redirect cargo along longer routes. As the expert explained, this increases the delivery time, freight cost and creates additional difficulties in logistics chains.
About 20% of the world's liquid hydrocarbon supplies and about 10% of gas, including 22% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG), passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Periodically, there is news that tankers are still moving through it. For example, on June 11, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced that oil exports through Hormuz had increased over the past one or two weeks. However, on the same day it became known that Iran had again blocked the artery for the movement of all ships. However, according to Iranian Ambassador to Tokyo Peyman Seadat, the strait is open to friendly countries, including Russia and China.
According to Donald Trump, after the signing of the peace agreement, Hormuz will be unblocked for everyone.
What are the losses of the Persian Gulf from the escalation
The Persian Gulf countries are also suffering from the conflict and the situation in Hormuz. Due to the drop in shipments from the blocked artery and the fighting in the Middle East, Iraq lost about $36.7 billion (with the volume of unsold oil at almost 340 million barrels), Izvestia estimated. The average cost of raw materials was about $110-115 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia lost $33.6 billion (with 308 million barrels of unsold oil), Kuwait lost about $22 billion (with more than 200 million barrels of oil). Qatar, as a supplier of not only oil, but also LNG, lost about $20 billion. Iran ($2.4 billion) and Bahrain ($1.9 billion) were the least affected.
The United Arab Emirates is in a better position in this situation, because some of their supplies do not come to Hormuz, but to Fujairah. However, during the 100 days of the conflict, the country lost about $16 billion. Nevertheless, the UAE has suffered significant losses due to a decrease in tourist traffic and restrictions on airport operations.
In the situation with raw materials, the economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE can last longer due to reserves, state funds and part of the bypass infrastructure, Vladimir Chernov believes. It is more difficult for Iraq and Kuwait, because the budget and foreign exchange earnings are more tied to oil.
In addition, damage to the Persian Gulf states is compounded by damage to infrastructure and reduced investment, said Mikhail Nikitin, Head of International Business and Finance Practice, partner at 5D Consulting. Against the background of the conflict, companies and the government are forced to postpone some projects, which negatively affects the growth rate of the economy. At the same time, the losses incurred can be partially compensated after the situation normalizes, the expert believes.
Will Russia benefit from the situation in the Middle East
Maintaining elevated oil and gas prices can support the incomes of energy—producing countries. Rising tensions and disruptions in global energy markets are generating profits for the Russian economy, said Yuri Mavashev. The increase in oil prices and the general instability of supplies strengthen the position of the Russian "raw materials" model and contribute to the growth of budget revenues. As Izvestia wrote earlier, if the conflict lasts until the end of the year, it will bring at least 2.5 trillion rubles to the treasury. In addition, some Asian buyers have begun to import Russian oil more actively, because supplies from the Gulf countries are intermittent, said Vladimir Chernov.
An additional factor is the redistribution of Western attention: the focus of the United States and Europe is partially shifting from Ukraine to the Middle East, Yuri Mavashev continued. Against this background, Moscow gets room for political maneuver and can strengthen its role as a potential mediator between Washington and Tehran, he added.
However, instability in the region poses a number of long-term problems for Russia. Infrastructure and investment projects in Iran, as well as broader logistics and trade routes, are under threat, the expert believes. The North–South international transport corridor, a key route through Iran, has become particularly sensitive. Its stability directly depends on the domestic and foreign policy stability of the country, said Yuri Mavashev.
Also, due to the prolonged conflict, the global economy will begin to slow down, which will lead to a drop in demand for raw materials, Vladimir Chernov added. For Russia, this means a reduction in oil and gas budget revenues and a deterioration in foreign exchange earnings.
What will the conflict with Iran mean for the United States and the global economy
Due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have increased, which has accelerated inflation and hit Americans' wallets, said Yuri Mavashev from the RANEPA. The consumer price index (which measures the price of a basic set of products and the change in its value) was already 4.2% in May, compared with 3.8% in April. In addition, the prolonged confrontation has increased the risk of further escalation in the Middle East.
— The conflict over Iran has also intensified political divisions within the United States and sparked debate about the country's foreign policy priorities. Some believe that the weakening of Tehran will allow Washington to focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Others fear that military conflict takes resources away from more important tasks and could accelerate the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The upcoming congressional elections add particular urgency to these discussions," the expert added.
Nevertheless, the United States is better protected than Europe and the Persian Gulf countries, because they have their own oil and gas production, recalled Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Global. Thus, American oil companies, LNG and petroleum products are receiving additional demand.
America has already bypassed Saudi Arabia and Russia, confirming its status as the largest oil supplier. In May, exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the United States reached about 10.5 million barrels per day, which is 60% more than a year earlier.
At the same time, as Izvestia reported earlier, the total volume of American crude stocks decreased to 1.57 billion barrels at the end of May. This is the lowest level since 2004.
The expansion of domestic production will create new jobs in the future, said Mikhail Nikitin from 5D Consulting. However, for the United States, the main economic advantage is undermining the competitiveness of the EU and China, according to Kirill Kononov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments.
Due to the situation in the Middle East, the global economy is slowing down, but it is not falling yet, said economist Olga Gogaladze. She believes that global GDP growth in 2026 will be about 2.7–2.8% after 3.2% a year earlier, and world trade will increase by only 1.5–2% (compared with 4% in 2025). Support will be provided by the growth of the high—tech sector, primarily semiconductors and electronics, against the background of the development of AI, as well as the service sector. Reconfiguration of logistics chains, including bypass routes, adds additional stability to the system. This will make it possible to maintain global flows even with increasing costs.
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