Why the conflict between the United States and Cuba has been going on for decades. Analysis

The United States has imposed sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, his family members and a number of high-ranking representatives of the Cuban leadership. The new measures include freezing possible assets and accounts in the United States and have become part of a course to increase pressure on Havana after the recent expansion of the sanctions regime. Shortly after, Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth visited the U.S. Guantanamo Bay military base in Cuba, where he said the United States was considering seizing Diaz-Canel by analogy with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Why the conflict between Havana and Washington has been going on for decades is in the Izvestia article.

Cuba's place in US foreign policy

• Back in the 19th century, American elites viewed the Caribbean as a space of vital interests: in 1823, the fifth President of the United States, James Monroe, formulated a doctrine that went down in history as the Monroe Doctrine. Formally, it forbade European powers to interfere in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere, but in practice Washington gradually began to perceive the entire region as its own zone of strategic responsibility. Cuba occupied a special place in this system, because from Havana to the coast of Florida (became part of the United States in 1845) about 150 km. There are sea routes through Cuba leading to the Gulf of Mexico, through which a significant portion of American trade and energy supplies have passed for decades.

• After the Spanish-American War of 1898 (when the United States occupied Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Philippines, which had belonged to the Kingdom of Spain since the 16th century), Cuba formally gained independence, but in 1901 the American Platt Amendment consolidated the right of the United States to interfere in Cuban affairs, essentially legitimizing the protectorate. American capital quickly occupied key positions in the sugar industry, banking sector, transportation and infrastructure of the island state, and by the middle of the 20th century, a significant part of the Cuban economy was directly dependent on the American market. About two-thirds of Cuban exports went to the United States.

• American policy towards Latin America was built around the idea of stability and predictability, so the Cuban revolution of 1959 meant for the United States the destruction of a model that had been developing for decades. For the first time, a state located within the American sphere of influence chose a course that excluded political and economic dependence on Washington.

From that moment on, a contradiction arose that has survived all subsequent eras. For the American political tradition, control over the strategically important Caribbean region remained part of national security, and for the new Cuban leadership, independence from the United States became a central element of state identity.

Turning Cuba into a U.S. headache

• After Fidel Castro, the leader of the Cuban revolution, came to power, events developed rapidly: already in 1960, Havana began nationalizing American enterprises. Oil refineries, sugar companies, banks and industrial assets were seized, and Washington responded with trade restrictions. The aggravation of relations with the United States has prompted the Cuban leadership to search for a new strategic partner. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union became such a partner, which saw in Cuba an opportunity to strengthen its position in close proximity to the American borders.

Within a few years, the island had become an important element of Soviet foreign policy: Moscow supplied oil, equipment, and weapons, as well as loans. The Caribbean crisis of 1962 culminated when the Soviet leadership deployed intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Cuba. Their flight time to major American cities was a matter of minutes, and the world was on the verge of nuclear war. After the crisis, the missiles were removed from the island, but the very fact of their appearance forever changed the attitude of the United States towards Cuba.

Pirates in the Caribbean: Cuba is preparing the population for an attack by the United States

About 3 thousand Russians live on the island — will they be evacuated?

After 1962, the island became a symbol of a geopolitical challenge for Washington. The American administrations of both Democrats and Republicans proceeded from the fact that the existence of a close alliance between Havana and the external rivals of the United States creates a long-term security problem.

Why did the conflict survive the Cold War

• After the Caribbean crisis, Cuba began to play a role that went far beyond the Caribbean: in the 1970s and 1980s, Cuban military and advisers operated in Angola, Ethiopia, and several other African States. Various leftist movements in Latin America were supported through Cuban structures. For many countries of the Global South, Havana has become a symbol of an independent course.

• In addition, after the revolution, hundreds of thousands of Cubans emigrated to the United States, and Miami, the capital of Florida, became the center of Cuban emigration. Many of the arrivals lost their property after the revolution and perceived the Castro government as a source of personal tragedy. Their political influence gradually grew. So, according to data for 2021, about 2.4 million Cuban Americans lived in the United States, and since 2000 their number has almost doubled, increasing by 92%. The majority of the Cuban diaspora is concentrated in Florida (64%), as well as in Texas, California, New Jersey and New York. Compared with the average among Latin Americans, Cubans are more likely to have higher education (30% versus 20%) and less likely to live below the poverty line (14% versus 18%), therefore they are an important electorate. For the presidential candidates, the support of Cuban-American voters has become an important element of the struggle for Florida, one of the country's key states in the election races.

• When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many expected the conflict to end, as Cuba's main ally had disappeared. However, relations have not returned to normal. Cuba continued its course of confrontation, despite the "special period" in the economy, which was struggling with the termination of Soviet aid. At the same time, in 1992 and 1996, the United States adopted new sanctions laws. They have tightened restrictions and fixed the embargo at the legislative level.

• However, the nature of the confrontation has changed. Previously, the conflict was based on ideological differences and the confrontation between the two superpowers, but after the collapse of the USSR, economic sanctions and pressure on the Cuban authorities to return the island to the zone of American influence became the main topic. The United States expected that economic pressure would eventually lead to political changes in Cuba. The Cuban authorities, on the contrary, saw their survival as proof that the system could exist even in isolation.

An attempt to defuse

• In December 2014, the administration of former US President Barack Obama announced the beginning of normalization of relations. For the first time in several decades, Washington openly acknowledged the limited effectiveness of the previous strategy: for more than fifty years, sanctions have not led to a change in the political system on the island. Obama restored diplomatic relations: he opened an embassy in Havana, simplified travel, and in 2016 he became the first sitting US president to visit Cuba in almost a century.

• The American strategy under Obama was built around the idea of gradual transformation through contacts, investments and expansion of the private sector. Washington hoped that the growth of tourism and economic activity would create new political groups interested in further reforms. But the Cuban leadership only sought to gain access to currency, technology, and tourist flows, while the authorities were not going to change the foundations of the political system.

• Internal processes in both countries have created additional problems. In the United States, a significant part of Republicans opposed concessions to Havana: in Florida, many politicians considered Obama's course premature. In Cuba, the leadership feared a repeat of the scenarios that led to the collapse of socialist regimes in Eastern Europe. By the time Republican Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in 2017, the process of normalization of relations had not managed to form a solid economic base. Therefore, it turned out to be relatively easy to revise a significant part of the decisions.

Why does the conflict persist

Washington continues to view the island through the prism of security and influence in the Western Hemisphere. In the last decade, American policy has again focused on sanctions, financial pressure, and limiting external sources of support for the Cuban economy. Washington pays special attention to energy supplies, financial transactions and international structures that cooperate with Havana.

Multiplication and pressure: Cuba is preparing to mobilize due to US threats

What are the chances of Havana surviving the economic and political blockade

• The economic situation in Cuba remains the most difficult in several decades. The country was gripped by the largest wave of emigration since the revolution. In particular, the record number of Cuban migrants since the mass emigration after the 1959 revolution was recorded in the period from October 2021 to July 2022, when more than 175 thousand Cuban citizens arrived in the United States. At the same time, the island's economy is probably going through the most difficult period in modern history: it is affected by fuel shortages, currency shortages, daily prolonged power outages and an almost complete shutdown of the tourist flow, an important source of income. The government is facing rapidly rising costs and limited opportunities to attract investment.

• The American authorities view pressure as a tool to influence Cuba's domestic policy, while the Cuban leadership uses external pressure as an argument in favor of maintaining the existing governance model, and each new restriction becomes part of political mobilization within the country. Therefore, the current confrontation cannot be explained by one reason. Geography, security, ideology, domestic politics, the memory of the Cold War and the struggle for influence in the region are present here.