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Pirates in the Caribbean: Cuba is preparing the population for an attack by the United States
Russia is not preparing to evacuate Russians from Cuba, while civilian exercises have been intensified in the republic due to the threat of a US invasion, Russian Ambassador to the island Viktor Coronelli told Izvestia. Donald Trump said there would be no escalation, but an American aircraft carrier strike group entered the Caribbean Sea. The situation was similar in the run-up to the war with Iran. Since the beginning of the year, the US president has regularly stated his readiness to use a military scenario in Cuba to change power. Meanwhile, Washington has opened a case against Raul Castro, which the United States can use as a pretext for an invasion.
Increased U.S. military presence near Cuba
A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean Sea, the United States Southern Command said. The division includes the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Nimitz. This is a full-fledged mobile base designed for long-term operations away from the coast. The USS Nimitz participated in numerous operations in the Middle East over two decades, and also played an important role during the Iraq War. At the same time, the US president claims that there will allegedly be no escalation.
The situation resembles the Iranian scenario. First, there are statements about the possibility of a "new deal" with Tehran and the need for pressure for negotiations. Then the United States began to transfer carrier groups and strategic aircraft to the Persian Gulf region. Formally, this was presented as "deterrence" and a show of force. And then the United States hit Iran.
In the current situation, the Cuban population is actively preparing for escalation, Russian Ambassador to the republic Viktor Coronelli told Izvestia.
"Public exercises conducted by the National Civil Defense Headquarters are conducted regularly on the island," the diplomat stressed. — Of course, against the background of threats from the United States, increased attention is currently being paid to relevant classes and recommendations here.
Since the beginning of 2026, every Friday in Cuba, the population has been preparing for mobilization. About 1,9 thousand residents participated in one of the March classes in Havana. They practiced actions in conditions of full combat readiness, equipped positions, maintained protective structures and participated in the evacuation of the population. In addition, they mastered basic skills: assembling and disassembling weapons, shooting, first aid, as well as handling mines and other explosives.
Despite the risk of an aggravation of the situation, the evacuation of Russians from Cuba is not yet being considered.
— The issue of the evacuation of Russian citizens from the island is not on the agenda, — said Victor Coronelli.
The number of Russians in Cuba in 2026 is estimated at 3,000. The lack of intention to evacuate may be due to the fact that a full-scale war is still not expected. A spot operation is much more likely, Gleb Ignatiev, a lecturer at the Department of Politics and Management at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
How could escalation develop in the Caribbean region
According to Ignatiev, Trump's statements that there will be no escalation are rather related to the desire to calm the people in the United States, since the war with Iran has already caused considerable difficulties to their citizens. For example, gasoline prices have doubled, and in the vast majority of states it is difficult to imagine life without a car.
— Donald Trump can say things that are opposite to each other. We remember very well how wonderful his negotiations with Iran were before he launched a military operation," said Egor Lidovskaya, Director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center. — This can be either a simple "blabbing" of its citizens so that they do not be afraid of another military escalation, or the world community and Cuba itself.
According to him, the republic has no chance of surviving a full-scale conflict with the United States without the support of its allies. But if Havana manages to repel the first attack of the United States and present it vividly in its media, then the ratings of Trump and the Republican Party will collapse. According to the latest data, only 35% of Americans in the United States support the president, which is important in the run-up to the congressional elections.
Cuba may use drones to damage American units, including an aircraft carrier, Ignatiev noted. Earlier, Axios, referring to classified US intelligence data, wrote that Havana had acquired more than 300 military UAVs.
"These drones can damage both an aircraft carrier and airplanes,— Ignatiev emphasized. — Moreover, they are able to safely fly to Florida and strike military targets there.
In the same Axios publication, it is reported that US intelligence is seriously considering the possibility of a Cuban drone strike on a military base in Guantanamo. Washington can use this data as an excuse for an invasion, the publication emphasized.
Nevertheless, most experts are confident that the United States will not undertake a full-fledged intervention. A much more likely scenario is a targeted operation against the Cuban elite.
The United States opened a case against Castro
To do this, the United States has already opened a case against Raul Castro. It is connected with the downing of American planes in 1996. The planes flew under the auspices of the organization of Cuban emigrants to the United States, "Brothers for Salvation." According to the popular version, they were looking for refugees in the sea. And when they began to violate Cuba's airspace and drop propaganda materials, Havana decided to strike at the planes. As a result, four people died.
Raul Castro
But, according to Lidovsky, this story is much more complicated than it is presented on the Web. The expert stressed that the organization had bought the planes with funds from the US Congress. And Jose Basulto, who worked with the CIA, led a group of Cuban immigrants, as he openly stated. He received military training from American intelligence and participated in the invasion of the island during the Bay of Pigs operation in 1961. Then Cuban emigrants landed off the coast of the republic to assassinate Fidel Castro, but were defeated.
— The organization's operation in 1996 had two goals. The first is the exploration of military installations in Cuba. And the second goal is an attempt to establish drug trafficking, which is actively used by the United States to control local elites. We can see this by following the example of Colombia and Mexico," Lidovsky emphasized.
According to him, it is Raul Castro who is being accused, because formally it was his decision to shoot down the planes. But in reality, Fidel Castro was behind it, who controlled the processes in Cuba from behind the scenes. Now President Miguel Diaz-Canel is on the island, but all key decisions are made by Raul Castro, Ignatiev emphasized.
— He is the one who prevents Cuba from becoming a "partner" of America. As we have seen with the example of Venezuela, it is enough just to remove one person and put in his place someone who will be ready to interact with the United States. As happened in Venezuela, where Delcy Rodriguez has become a very profitable character for America," the expert added. — If Castro is extradited or replaced by another, for example, by his grandson, with whom US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the head of the CIA communicate, then this will be enough, and the White House is counting on this.
The situation around Cuba is reminiscent of previous American operations in Latin America, when pressure, sanctions and accusations gradually led to an attempt to change power. The region still remembers the story of Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, who was actually taken to America after the US invasion and put on trial. And more recently, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was abducted in the same way.
If the crisis around Havana continues to unfold, Raul Castro and the Cuban leadership may try to face a similar choice — surrender or a military scenario. At the same time, unlike during the Cold War, Cuba today is in a much more vulnerable position: Russia, China and other partners are unlikely to be ready to enter into direct confrontation with the United States over the island, which means Havana will most likely have to rely primarily on its own forces.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
