Letters of Discord: Why the Armenian elections may lead to a new war
In Armenia, following the results of the parliamentary elections held on June 7, the ruling party retained its leadership, but lost its constitutional majority. This means that Yerevan will not be able to fulfill Azerbaijan's key requirement to amend the constitution. In such circumstances, the risk of a new escalation increases in the region. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The first ones after Karabakh
Parliamentary elections were held in Armenia on June 7. It was the first electoral campaign in the country after the loss of Karabakh. It was marked by a large number of scandals, noisy campaigning and high turnout on election day.
One of the main results is that the ruling Civil Contract party failed to reach the 50% target. At the same time, she will still receive a majority in parliament due to the redistribution of mandates from parties that did not overcome the electoral barrier. Thanks to this, the union will single-handedly form a government, although it will no longer receive a constitutional majority.
The fact is that according to the legislation, changing the constitution requires not just more than half of the votes, but 3/5 of the mandates, that is, at least 70 deputies out of 105, and now the "Civil Contract" can occupy 64 seats. At the same time, the country's Central Election Commission is still counting votes at half a thousand polling stations, meaning the final official result, which will be announced on June 14, may be even lower.
For example, the prospects of Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia opposition party are in question. After the preliminary count, she turned out to have 3.996%, that is, literally several dozen ballots were missing before overcoming the electoral barrier of 4%. At the same time, representatives of the association have already stated that the missing votes were found during the recount, that is, the party can pass as a result, then its mandates will not be redistributed.
The second important result of the election is that the opponents of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have improved their positions. If in the previous convocation the opponents of the authorities had 33 mandates, now there should be 41 seats. The main protest force was Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party, which had not participated in the elections before. It is believed that in the future she may further displace both competitors in the protest camp and the ruling party.
Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan during voting in the parliamentary elections
As a result, the parliament turned out to be much more diverse and complex than before. At the same time, the parties are clearly not going to establish a dialogue. After the announcement of the first voting results, Nikol Pashinyan did not hide the fact that he did not intend to negotiate with anyone. According to him, the people allegedly made it clear that they want to eradicate the "three-headed party of war and the criminal-oligarchic system accompanying it," that is, the political opposition.
The offensive to the south
In such circumstances, relations between Yerevan and Baku are sharply complicated. The fact is that Azerbaijan has been demanding changes to the Armenian constitution for several years, and only after that it agrees to sign a peace treaty and drop all mutual claims. The preamble of the main Armenian document, which contains indirect claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, was considered the most problematic.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stressed that this issue remains a key issue. "There is still a situation that calls into question the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. As far as we understand, they will make an amendment. And as soon as they do this, they will withdraw their territorial claims, and an official peace agreement will be signed," he explained.
Nikol Pashinyan has also said more than once that he will initiate a constitutional change after the elections. During the current election campaign, he promised to hold a corresponding referendum in 2027. He also added that the reference to the Declaration of Independence would be deleted from the new version. "It is based on the logic of conflict, we cannot build an independent state based on this logic," the Armenian leader noted.
It is also important that other important processes depend on changing the constitution and signing a peace treaty. For example, Armenia has been seeking normalization of relations with Turkey in recent years. The sides held several rounds of talks at the level of special representatives, and Nikol Pashinyan met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul last summer. At the same time, Ankara will not move towards a real rapprochement until Yerevan settles its differences with Baku.
In addition, the implementation of the Trump Road Project (TRIPP), an overland route that should connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey through southern Armenia, depends on the conclusion of a peace treaty. In a broader sense, the highway may become part of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor from China to Europe. At the same time, it is clear that large investments necessary for construction can be attracted only in conditions of a sustainable world.
Supporters of the Prosperous Armenia party during a rally in Freedom Square
Now, the issue of the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is hanging in the air, and the situation in the region is becoming much more complicated in this regard. There are several possible scenarios. On the one hand, the ruling Armenian party expects to find the votes needed to change the constitution and declare a referendum.
For example, the Yerevan newspaper Graparak reports that the authorities offered a deal to the opposition Prosperous Armenia, which lacked several ballots to overcome the electoral barrier. The association was allegedly promised help with getting into parliament in exchange for support on the constitutional issue. According to the publication, the opposition party refused, but it is likely that the dialogue is being conducted with someone else.
The situation may hang in some kind of uncertainty, when there will be neither a rapprochement of the parties, nor a sharp aggravation of relations. It is likely that the "freeze period" will even benefit both countries. For example, in Armenia, by the next election cycle, the Karabakh issue may no longer be so painful, so it will be easier to deal with the accumulated issues.
Finally, a violent escalation by Azerbaijan cannot be ruled out. Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly hinted transparently that such a scenario is also on the table. "They shouldn't make us nervous. Azerbaijan is the leading economy, the leading military force and the leading state in the South Caucasus. In the modern world, the power factor is in the foreground, and no one should forget about it," he said in an interview.
What the experts say
Political analyst Artur Atayev emphasizes that the Armenian opposition, which has entered parliament, will not support constitutional changes.
— In such a situation, a new armed escalation may indeed occur. Perhaps this is what Pashinyan meant when he spoke about the three-headed war party. What will be the new conflict? Azerbaijan may try to take control of the south of Armenia in order to independently ensure communication with Nakhichevan and Turkey. If Baku decides that there are enough forces, then I will allow a larger—scale offensive along the entire border," he argues.
Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Problems, says that the issue is likely to remain in an uncertain status.
— I don't see any reason for Azerbaijan to put pressure on the Armenian authorities. The fact is that Pashinyan and his team are just ready to make concessions, there is no point in making claims against them. A forceful escalation is also unlikely. It will undermine all previous efforts to achieve peace, besides provoking a surge of revanchist sentiments in Armenia. Apparently, the issue will simply be postponed until better times, and in the near future there will be neither war nor peace," he explains.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
