Substitute a block: NATO acts provocatively near the Union State
Russia and Belarus are ready to use all means, including nuclear ones, to ensure the security of the Union State, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. According to him, the North Atlantic Alliance is provocatively and demonstratively building up its forces in the immediate vicinity of the borders of the Russian Federation and Belarus. In particular, NATO is conducting exercises there, and the number of drone incidents is increasing. Experts believe that in this way the European members of the bloc are trying to divert Russia's attention from Ukraine and destabilize the situation in Belarus. The presence of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory reduces the likelihood of a direct military conflict.
What kind of provocations are being prepared in NATO against Belarus
The NATO bloc is demonstratively and provocatively building up its armed forces in the immediate vicinity of the borders of the Union State of Russia and Belarus (SG), Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia.
— The modalities of interaction between the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, as well as between the security agencies of Russia and Belarus, are constantly being improved. We are constantly ready to use all means, including nuclear ones, to ensure the security of the Union State," the diplomat stressed.
Mikhail Galuzin also drew attention to the fact that Moscow and Minsk are constantly improving the entire range of cooperation in the field of defense and security in accordance with the agreement on mutual security guarantees within the framework of the SG. The document was signed in December 2024. It provides for the obligation of countries to support each other in the event of attacks on the security of any of them.
Earlier, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko drew attention to the difficult and tense situation around the republic. On May 26, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, announced that NATO countries were working out scenarios for strikes on the territory of the Union State during military exercises. According to his deputy Alexei Shevtsov, in 2025, the alliance conducted more than 120 military exercises of the alliance, and more than 700 more were held at the level of individual NATO members. At the same time, most of the maneuvers were conducted near the borders of the Union State.
In addition to the exercises, the North Atlantic Alliance is increasing its grouping in Poland and the Baltic States. The total number of NATO coalition forces in Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Estonia has almost doubled since February 2022 and today stands at about 22,000 troops, Major General Evgeny Ilyin, First Deputy head of the Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation of the Russian Defense Ministry, said earlier. In early June, Warsaw handed over to the United States an official proposal to create a permanent military base on the territory of the republic, although 10,000 American soldiers are already stationed there.
The number of provocations using drones is also growing. The Belarusian military records violations of airspace by drones almost daily and destroys them when threatened, Andrei Lukyanovich, commander of the republic's Air Force and air defense forces, reported in May. Recently, Kiev has been increasingly using the airspace of the Baltic States to attack Russia, and the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service warned of the risks of launching drones directly from the territory of Latvia. Moreover, the government of the latter managed to resign because of this situation. Now even NATO aircraft have started shooting down UAVs, in particular, such a case occurred on June 8 in Latvia.
"New provocations with drones are possible in order to accuse Belarus and Russia of violating the airspace of NATO countries," Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia.
By the way, on May 20, Vladimir Zelensky ordered the deployment of additional troops to the areas bordering Belarus in Chernihiv and Kiev regions. He also spoke about a "preventive strike" on the neighboring republic "in case of a threat." In response, the President of Belarus explained that Minsk was closely monitoring the composition of the Ukrainian forces stationed at the border.
The balance of forces between NATO and the Union State
The defense of the territory of Belarus is carried out by the regional grouping of the SG troops, which consists of the Belarusian armed forces and Russian units. During its deployment in 2022, Minsk stated that the group consisted of 9,000 Russian troops and several hundred pieces of equipment. The full-time strength of the Belarusian Armed Forces is about 63-65 thousand people, but Alexander Lukashenko announced in May that a targeted mobilization of individual units would be carried out to maintain combat readiness.
Despite its small size, the Belarusian army is quite effective, as it has modern weapons and a well-developed military industry. In addition, Russia is able to help Minsk and increase the number of its forces in the republic if necessary, Shapovalov noted. The political scientist also stressed that, against the background of the normalization of relations between Belarus and the United States, it is precisely the Eastern European members of the North Atlantic Bloc who are interested in provocations. Earlier, the special envoy of the President of the United States, John Cole, visited Minsk several times, and following the talks, Washington lifted some of the sanctions against Belarusian enterprises.
It is important to keep in mind that in the event of a military clash with NATO, Moscow and Minsk will first face the armies of Poland and the Baltic states, as well as the troops deployed on their territory from other countries of the bloc. It takes time for the main forces of the alliance to reach Eastern Europe. Therefore, the Suwalki corridor, which divides Belarus and the Kaliningrad Region, plays a key role. It is this territory that NATO states pay special attention to in their plans to blockade the Russian region.
Moscow and Minsk are linked by joint planning, exercises, an air defense system and coordination of the armed forces. In addition, the presence of Russian military facilities and the integration of defense systems make it possible to quickly increase support in the event of a crisis, Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
"Conventional armed forces, air defense and the degree of political integration of Moscow and Minsk remain the basis of protection, while the nuclear factor serves as an umbrella of strategic deterrence rather than a tool for solving everyday military tasks," the expert emphasized.
Back in 2023, Russia, by agreement with Minsk, deployed tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of the republic. The Oreshnik missile system was also put on combat duty. In Russia's updated nuclear doctrine, a response with the use of nuclear weapons is possible if Belarus is attacked as a member of the Union State. The presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near the borders of the North Atlantic Alliance forces NATO to take into account the shortening of the approach time and adjust its intentions regarding direct involvement in the conflict, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
"In an environment where modern delivery systems, such as the Oreshnik hypersonic missile system, are capable of striking in a matter of minutes, Western leaders are forced to consider the potential consequences of an attack on Belarus or the Kaliningrad region," the expert noted.
Despite its military operations in Ukraine, Moscow makes it clear that it is capable of protecting its key ally. A military conflict with the forces of the Union State in the center of Europe would lead to enormous destruction and casualties in the bordering NATO countries. Therefore, the strengthening of forces near the borders with Belarus and provocations look like an attempt by European members of the North Atlantic Alliance to put pressure on Minsk and distract Russia's attention.
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