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- Desperation and struggle: what are Pashinyan's chances of forcing Armenia's path to the EU
Desperation and struggle: what are Pashinyan's chances of forcing Armenia's path to the EU
The parliamentary elections in Armenia are one day away. Nikol Pashinyan's party is still leading in the polls, but the opposition forces may gain more in total if they agree on unification after the vote. The main dispute in the framework of this campaign is the country's course: to continue rapprochement with the EU or to maintain the previous depth of ties with Russia and the EAEU. Armenia remains an ally and strategic partner of the Russian Federation, but "legitimate questions" have accumulated in Yerevan, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. The diplomat stressed that membership in the EU and the EAEU is incompatible, and in the event of a turn to the European Union, the republic risks losing key markets. What happened in Yerevan on the eve of the elections and how the republic came to a rough fight with competitors is in the Izvestia article.
Parliamentary elections in Armenia
On Sunday, June 7, Armenian citizens will have to decide on the country's development vector for the next five years. However, this time the choice of voters may have serious economic consequences. The country found itself at a fork in the road: to continue moving towards the EU or to maintain its former ties with Russia.
On June 5, the last authorized rally was held in Republic Square in Yerevan before the "days of silence" on June 6 and 7. Supporters of the current Prime Minister of the country, Nikol Pashinyan, gathered in the city center, whose policy is raising more and more questions not only within the country, but also from external players.
The main split between the Armenian parties before the elections revolves around the country's foreign policy: Pashinyan and the "Civil Contract" are betting on a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and rapprochement with the EU. The opposition, including businessman Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia bloc and Robert Kocharyan's Armenia, accuse the authorities of making concessions to Baku, losing Karabakh and destroying relations with Russia.
The issue of membership in the EAEU became a separate topic. The authorities claim to diversify their foreign policy through strengthening ties with the European Union, but the opposition warns that this is fraught with the loss of the Russian market, preferential energy resources and the former security system. This is what the "Strong Armenia" and "Armenia" blocks say. Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia takes a more cautious position: the party does not advocate an unequivocal turn towards Russia, but warns of the risks of severing economic ties with it.
Pashinyan retains some support, but a significant part of society is opposed to him, political analyst Hayk Khalatyan believes.
— This can explain the pressure that is currently being applied against the opposition. Even the government understands that despite the repression and external support, it still has a fairly high chance of losing," the expert told Izvestia.
The head of the largest opposition force, Samvel Karapetyan, has been under arrest since January 2026, and his associates face criminal cases and charges. On the last day of the campaign, the country's leadership seemed to be getting nervous from the realization that victory was not guaranteed at all. As a result, the pressure on "Strong Armenia" has increased to an unprecedented level. The Republic party has appealed to the Central Election Commission of Armenia with a demand to suspend the participation of Samvel Karapetyan's bloc in the elections. The bloc itself stated that they were ready "for all scenarios," and attributed what was happening to the fear of the authorities and their allies of the growing support for the opposition. However, such steps may well deprive Armenian citizens of their legitimate right to determine the future of their country.
Two days before the elections, a number of former high-ranking officials were detained in the republic. In particular, Arman Sahakyan, the former head of the state Property Management Department, is accused of bribery.
Law enforcement agencies also detained Armen Ashotyan, ex-Minister of Education and Deputy Chairman of the Republican Party. In addition, it was decided to arrest former Defense Minister Vigen Sargsyan and former Finance Minister Gagik Khachatryan.
At the same time, over the past month, the Internet has been filled with videos in which residents of the Armenian capital, meeting Pashinyan on the street, did not hesitate to choose expressions to describe the results of his policy towards Karabakh.
Pashinyan's domestic support has weakened quite a lot. The party's ratings are really not comparable to those of the parliamentary elections in 2018. Then Pashinyan's block (then it was called "My Step") gained 70.44% of the vote. But since that moment, he has lost almost half of his popularity.
Now, sociology is also shaping up in favor of Pashinyan, but with major reservations. According to a recent GALLUP International Association poll, 32.4% of voters are ready to vote for the Civil Contract party, which is almost twice as high as for the Strong Armenia opposition bloc (16.4%).
However, in total, the remaining opposition forces are gaining more in total — 15.2% are ready to give their votes for the Armenia bloc, 8.8% for the Prosperous Armenia party, and 6.2% for the Wings of Unity party of former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan. Together they can get 46.6% of the votes.
Cooling of relations between Russia and Armenia
Yerevan has been trying to distance itself from Moscow for several years. Back in 2024, Armenia achieved the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots airport and froze its participation in the CSTO. On June 4, Pashinyan announced that the republic would not return to work in the organization. At the same time, the authorities took a course towards rapprochement with the EU: in 2025, a law was passed on the start of the EU accession process, the parties agreed on a new strategic partnership agenda, discussed visa liberalization, transport connectivity and attracting European investment.
Commander of the border troops of the National Security Service (NSS) of Armenia Edgar Hunanyan (left) and Head of the Border Department of the FSB of Russia in Armenia, Lieutenant General Roman Golubitsky during the signing of the protocol at the ceremony of the transfer of the FSB of the Russian Federation to the Armenian side of the function of protecting the state border in Zvartnots
It is this reversal that causes the most discontent among Yerevan's partners in the EAEU. The Russian Federation emphasizes that Armenia's full-fledged participation in this union is incompatible with moving to the EU, since we are talking about different markets, standards and regulatory rules.
— Armenia remains our ally and strategic partner. Another thing is that even to such an ally, Armenia's strategic partner, we have absolutely legitimate questions," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia.
According to him, additional concern is caused by the fact that the European Union pursues a hostile policy towards Russia, supports Kiev and, together with the NATO countries, aims to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation. In these circumstances, the diplomat noted, Armenia's rapprochement with the EU as a Russian ally "cannot but raise questions."
In May, it even came to a scandal. Moscow's sharp reaction was caused by Vladimir Zelensky's speech in Yerevan at the summit of the European Political Community, which was held in the Armenian capital. There, the Ukrainian leader cynically threatened Russia with the appearance of drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over Red Square on Victory Day. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Armenian ambassador and expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that Yerevan provided a platform for such statements. At the same time, the Armenian authorities did not publicly respond to Zelensky's words.
According to Galuzin, this episode fits into the general line of Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union. By providing a platform to Zelensky, Yerevan actually allowed the use of Armenian territory for Kiev's anti-Russian statements. The very rapprochement with the EU carries not only political, but also economic risks for Armenia.
— Armenia has access to a huge market, a common market for goods, services, capital and labor. All this will not happen if Armenia joins the European Union. And, accordingly, the country will lose both its key export markets and markets for labor migration. In other words, the losses will amount to tens of percent of Armenia's GDP," Galuzin stressed.
Yerevan has already begun to feel the first economic consequences. Russia has imposed trade restrictions on a number of Armenian goods, explaining this by the requirements of phytosanitary control and product quality. The restrictions affected flower products, certain types of wine and cognac, mineral water, vegetables, herbs, strawberries, fruits, grapes, apples, pears, eggplants, potatoes, dried fruits and fish products. This is painful for Armenia: the Russian market remains one of the key export destinations for fresh agricultural products and foodstuffs.
On the one hand, Pashinyan is trying to present this as a consequence of protecting the country's sovereignty. On the other hand, many voters understand that his foreign policy course may lead to a break with Armenia's key trade and economic partner, while the prospects for replacing the Russian market with other areas remain unclear, Hayk Khalatyan stressed.
However, how the situation will develop after the elections is an open question. Yerevan is actually putting itself at a crossroads. The new authorities will either have to meet Russia halfway, which will displease Western partners, or continue the current course, the risks of which Moscow has repeatedly pointed out.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
