Right to vote: Armenia will not be admitted to the European Union until 2030
While Armenia is rushing between the EU and the EAEU, Brussels is in no hurry to consider its candidacy. Yerevan's accession in the coming years is unlikely, the European Parliament told Izvestia. In practice, this issue has not even been discussed, and the Armenian authorities themselves do not see any prospects for early membership. At the same time, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has so far refused to hold a referendum, which all members of the Eurasian Economic Union have called for. The information about the bet made in Yerevan on the eve of the elections and who from the opposition can impose the struggle on Pashinyan is in the Izvestia article.
Will Armenia join the EU and when
The parliamentary elections in Armenia on June 7 are less than a week away. And the debate over the country's future is intensifying every day. In early May, the first ever EU—Armenia summit was held in Yerevan, after which Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan immediately talked about the imminent visa-free regime. However, Brussels recalled that in practice, Yerevan's accession to the EU was not even discussed, so such conversations remain at the theoretical level.
— Although Armenia enjoys great sympathy in the EU and official relations continue to deepen, the issue of membership is still more of a theoretical nature. Given Armenia's geographical location and difficult relations with at least one of its neighbors, such a candidate raises many questions. Despite the fact that relations between the EU and Armenia have been steadily improving in recent years, accession before 2030 is unlikely, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
Moreover, even the Armenian Foreign Ministry ruled out the country's accession to the European Union until 2030. So Yerevan will obviously have to make room for membership. Kartheiser added that the EU is now dealing with the issues of the candidate countries from the Balkans, as well as Ukraine and Moldova, as a matter of priority.
Armenia doesn't even have a candidate status. To do this, you need to send an official application to the Council of the European Union, after which the European Commission will decide whether to recommend the country for integration or not. Following this, all 27 EU member states must unanimously approve the granting of official candidate status. This step is usually accompanied by a list of "homework assignments" — key political, economic, and judicial reforms.
After they are held, negotiations begin on 35 thematic blocks, which should show that the country fully complies with EU standards. At the same time, negotiations are conducted on each block separately, which is why they usually last for years. On average, the period of joining the EU takes about 9-10 years. For example, Hungary and Poland applied in 1994, and joined in 2004. But lately it's more of a happy accident. Turkey will soon change its third decade in anticipation of European membership.
An independent member of the Armenian Parliament, Tagui Tovmasyan, who has worked with the parliaments of the European Union countries for many years, told Izvestia that the prospect of Yerevan joining the EU remains quite uncertain at the moment.
— We still have a long way to go through institutional, political and economic reforms. Therefore, in my opinion, Armenia's membership in the European Union until 2030 seems to be an unrealistic goal," she said.
When will Yerevan make a choice between the EU and the EAEU
Armenia's prospects in the EU are significantly complicated by membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Earlier, Pashinyan admitted that the country would not be able to be a member of two organizations at the same time, so sooner or later it would hold a referendum that would resolve this issue. At the last EAEU summit in Kazakhstan, the member states, including Russia, officially called on Yerevan to hold this very referendum as soon as possible. The reaction followed only a few days later, and it was very mixed.
— It is illogical to hold a referendum until Armenia has officially applied to the EU for membership or is close to obtaining the status of a candidate for membership. Because there is no justification, no balance has been formed so that we can offer the people a choice of which way to go," he stressed.
At the same time, according to him, Yerevan understands the importance of ties with Russia and is developing them. During a telephone conversation on June 1, Vladimir Putin congratulated the Armenian leader on his birthday and stressed that Moscow is interested in further progressive development of the dialogue with Yerevan, which has always been friendly.
Earlier, the head of the Russian Federation noted that Moscow was not against Yerevan's integration with Brussels, but stressed that in this case the republic would lose the benefits of membership in the EAEU. Experts believe that Armenia's withdrawal from the union will be completely catastrophic for its economy. If in 2024 Yerevan's trade turnover with the EAEU amounted to $12.7 billion, then with the EU it was only about $2.3 billion.
Today, relations between the two countries are experiencing tense moments. In particular, at that EU summit, Vladimir Zelensky made calls to put pressure on Moscow: the Kremlin expectedly asked for an explanation, recalling that Armenia, along with Russia, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). By the way, in 2024, Yerevan froze its participation in it, although it formally retained its membership.
Nevertheless, after the summit, Moscow imposed a temporary ban on the import of flowers, Jermuk mineral water and products from several cognac factories from Armenia. In addition, the Rosselkhoznadzor announced that only two fisheries were allowed to export products to the Russian Federation. Starting from June 2, the Rosselkhoznadzor restricts the import of apricots, cherries and grapes from Armenia. And on June 1, new rules for imports from the EAEU came into force in the Russian Federation to protect the Russian market from low-quality goods.
However, experts believe that it's not just about the quality of the goods. Today, Yerevan is at the point of no return in its policy of turning to the West, says Vadim Mukhanov, a leading researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAS. The upcoming elections and their consequences will show how successful the reversal will be.
What is the pre-election situation in Armenia
To win the election, Nikol Pashinyan relied on rapprochement with Europe and the United States. Recently, following the EU leaders, American Secretary of State Marco Rubio flew to Yerevan for the first time in more than 10 years. He signed three key agreements with the republic: the charter on strategic cooperation, the agreement on the extraction of rare earth metals and the agreement on strategic cooperation in the so-called "Trump Road" project.
The Armenian prime minister wants to show the voters that the country is developing in a multi-vector manner, moving closer to the West and not severing ties with Russia. "Therefore, now Pashinyan is literally trying to sit on these two or three chairs," says Vadim Mukhanov.
As the figures show, such tactics, at least to get the "right result" in the elections, can work. According to a survey conducted by MPG/Gallup International Association, 28.8% of Armenians would vote for Pashinyan's Civil Contract party. At the end of 2025, it was supported by only 16.5%.
The main vulnerabilities for the party remain the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, difficult relations with Russia, as well as with the Armenian Apostolic Church, which has repeatedly criticized the current prime minister for blatant pressure on priests.
These problems are being exploited by the main opposition group, the Strong Armenia bloc, which is still gaining a modest 14.9% of the vote in the polls. He is backed by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, and while he is under house arrest, his nephew Narek Karapetyan has headed the electoral list. The party criticizes Pashinyan for the "war against the church," advocating the immediate restoration of allied relations with Moscow and a pragmatic economic course.
If Strong Armenia manages to unite the rest of the opposition around itself, it will be able to create real problems for the ruling party, Ilya Margolin, a political strategist, said in a conversation with Izvestia. It is possible that this is why a criminal case was opened against the bloc on voter bribery, which led to searches of the party's office the day before and the detention of eight people.
— A week before the election, Pashinyan retains the advantage, but the probability of a second round remains. The opposition is weak now because of its disunity. The chance for her will arise only with a real unification in the second round. The main threat to Pashinyan is Samvel Karapetyan as a consolidation resource center," the expert said.
According to the law, the winning force must control at least 54% of parliamentary mandates. If this does not happen, the parties are given six days to form a coalition, or a second round is announced. According to the survey, 12.1% of the votes of the citizens of the republic are ready to give for the Armenia bloc of former President Robert Kocharyan, 8.7% for the Prosperous Armenia party, and 5.8% for the Wings of Unity party.
Despite the leadership of Pashinyan's party, the election campaign is escalating. A few days ago, thousands of supporters of Kocharyan held a rally in the center of Yerevan. Speaking to the participants, Kocharyan said: "If this government remains, the Armenian economy will be in deep crisis."
The upcoming elections will be a decisive moment for Armenia, which will determine its path for years to come. Pashinyan's policy of rapprochement with the European Union is now being severely tested, facing strong resistance from the pro-Russian opposition. The results of the vote will show whether the residents of the country are ready for a long and difficult journey to Europe, which is guaranteed to require a painful break with reliable partners. For Russia, it is important not to lose not even an economic partner in the South Caucasus, but an ally who can look not only towards the EU, but also towards NATO, repeating the path of Ukraine.
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