Stop cards: banks have exhausted the reserves of credit card market growth
The credit card market in the Russian Federation is approaching saturation, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The active customer base has almost reached 30 million people, and in four months of 2026, banks issued almost 5 million new cards, according to OKB data. Attracting new borrowers is becoming more expensive, so individual market players have begun to shift their focus from growing the number of customers to retaining them. This is already leading to an improvement in "plastic" conditions, although the stakes are still high. Izvestia found out what will happen to the market next and whether Russians will benefit from it.
What's going on with the credit card market
In the four months of 2026, banks issued 4.8 million new credit cards, which means that a new card was issued every two seconds at that time, Izvestia calculated according to the United Credit Bureau (OKB). At the same time, the number of plastic holders is approaching 30 million people, which indicates a high saturation of the market.
The vast majority of the economically active population owns credit cards today, said Andrey Surikov, Marketing Director of Gamma Group Management Company. According to him, financial organizations understand this: previously, their priority was coverage and market share, but now the focus has shifted to retaining existing customers.
Banks have already collected almost all solvent borrowers, says Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets. New issues are now being made either by luring customers away from competitors, or by re-issuing them to the same people, she noted.
There is little demand for credit cards now, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract new customers, said Mikhail Aleksin, OKB's General Director. Plastic rates still exceed 50%, which in itself limits interest in the product.
The Russian Federation also has restrictions on the Central Bank granting loans to borrowers who use more than half of their income to repay them. The debt burden is determined taking into account all the client's obligations — the limits on open credit cards are taken into account, even if the person does not use them. Therefore, it becomes more difficult for people with large debts to get a new card, and many customers may close them to increase the chances of approving a larger loan.
In addition, financial institutions themselves cut their credit card limits in advance to keep them as potential borrowers, Olga Gogoladze reminded. As a result, demand for the product was falling, and banks were forced to rethink their strategy.
The potential for market growth remains, but it is limited, explained Pavel Zholobov, Senior Director for Financial Institutions Ratings at the NRA. Thus, the market can still grow at the expense of premium and corporate clients, as well as regions with historically low penetration of credit cards, such as the republics of the North Caucasus.
How banks will retain customers
Financial organizations have recently become much more cautious, said Alexey Voylukov, an MBA professor of business practice in digital finance at the Presidential Academy. Despite having a sufficient capital reserve, they closely monitor the quality of borrowers and try to keep the focus on reliable ones.
Attracting a new high-quality client can cost the bank more than 10 thousand rubles, explained financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, now the surest tactic is to retain credit card users, rather than actively increasing their number.
The fight for customers will primarily affect credit card loyalty programs, Olga Gogaladze said. Faceless cashbacks "for everything" are giving way to programs based on the analysis of customer behavior, Andrey Surikov added. Credit organizations adjust offers to users and add flexible categories with a refund of up to 15-20% to choose from each month, integration with subscriptions, marketplaces and gas stations.
In addition, the changes will affect the terms of preferential interest-free periods on credit cards, Andrey Surikov added. Their terms are gradually increasing, and the conditions are becoming more competitive. In addition, banks can allow extending the grace period if certain conditions are met, Olga Gogoladze added.
The choice of conservative customers will also be influenced by the possibility of withdrawing cash from a credit card without commission, Andrei Surikov concluded.
Why are conditions for new customers getting worse
Expensive deposits increase the cost of funding, explained Maria Rodovskaya, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Savings Bank JSC. If a customer uses a credit card only during the grace period, they actually receive an interest—free loan, but this money remains expensive for the bank. This makes the card business less profitable and makes it necessary to shorten grace periods under new contracts, she noted.
Although the benefits for financial institutions still remain. Retail chains pay separate fees for credit card transactions — in most cases, loyalty programs allow the bank to cover costs, explained Ivan Uklein, Senior Director for Credit Institution Ratings at Expert RA agency.
Nevertheless, the interest income of credit institutions is also lost due to the regulation of the Central Bank. They are forced to reduce the issuance of cards to borrowers with a high debt burden, but they were the ones who brought them the main income, Olga Gogaladze added. As a result, they are forced to compete for a better, but less profitable customer.
At the same time, there is simply nowhere to worsen the conditions on the cards through a direct increase in rates and a reduction in the grace period, the expert explained. Therefore, instead of worsening conditions, banks will cut off risky borrowers more harshly at the issuance stage.
What will happen to the credit card market
For the most part, the main deterioration in credit card conditions has already occurred, so further they can only be of a point nature, Ivan Uklein believes. The competition for the client and for his emotions remains really high.
In the coming years, banks' competition for customers will shift from direct financial incentives to the development of the service component, Alexey Voylukov added. The main focus will be on additional services, ecosystem services, personalized offers and partner programs. The market will also be influenced by the dynamics of the key interest rate: as it decreases, the cost of credit products will gradually become more attractive to borrowers, the expert explained.
Now the credit card market in Russia has really reached saturation, analysts agree. Banks are forced to switch from increasing their portfolio to retaining high-quality borrowers. Customers will benefit from this, but the benefit will not be in a cheap loan, but in bonuses and convenience. Further market growth is possible only if the key rate drops below 10%, Expert RA concluded.
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